Population undercount and social science research

The undercount problem in the decennial census has important implication for social science research based directly or indirectly on census data. Because undercount rates (or coverage rates) vary by age, race, residence, and other factors typically studied in social research, important conceptual difficulties arise in using census results to corroborate sampling frames or to validate survey results. Differential undercount, particularly for analyses based on small areas, could produce substantial variability in prevalence rates in cases where the denominators for those rates are derived from the census. Several examples where the undercount problem arises in social science research, including survey research, are considered. The adjustment problem—whether to adjust, how to adjust, and how much to adjust—is also considered from the point of view of social sicence research.     

The unemployment insurance compensation experience of immigrants in Canada, 1980-1988

This paper utilizes a new data set, compiled by Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Revenue Canada and Statistics Canada, to examine the unemployment experience of Canadian immigrant cohorts over the time period 1980 to 1988. Using the records of unemployment insurance benefits of persons who immigrated to Canada in those years and who filed income tax returns, the unemployment experiences of those people are compared by landing year, gender, level of education, language ability, and country of last permanent residence. The determinants of the proportion of each immigrant cohort that received unemployment insurance benefits are estimated by relating the proportions to landing year, duration of time in Canada, and labour market conditions. Briefly, we find no obvious influences on UI receipt behaviour following the immigration reforms of 1982. However, the recession of 1981–82 had a major impact on incomes which did not recover until 5 or 6 years later. Nevertheless, more generous UI benefits did raise slightly the likelihood of UI receipts. Received: 5 December 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996     

Immigrant quality and assimilation: a review of the U.S. literature

Empirical research on US immigrants is reviewed: their productivity and assimilation; their contribution and use of public services; and their impact on native Americans. I discuss the characteristics of cohorts of immigrants that enter the United States at different times, and then quantify the assimilation of immigrants, typically in terms of economic productivity of immigrants compared with natives. Few have found quantifiable negative effects of immigrants on native wages or unemployment in local labor markets, but a more general equilibrium approach than has been empirically implemented may be needed to draw any conclusions regarding the distributional consequences of immigration. Received: 22 September 1995 / Accepted: 2 March 1997     

Historical changes in the household division of labor

A number of studies published in the 1970s asserted that the amount of time women spend doing housework shows no historical decline. This article draws on evidence from time-budget surveys—three from the United States (1965, 1975, and 1985) and three from the United Kingdom (1961, 1974, and 1984)—to investigate the evolution of housework time for men and women over the last three decades. Clearly much other than housework has changed over this period. More women have paid jobs, more men are unemployed, and families have gotten smaller on average. Even having controlled for such sociodemographic changes, we conclude that in the two countries, women in the 1980s do substantially less housework than those in equivalent circumstances in the 1960s, and that men do a little more than they did (although still much less than women). These changes correspond closely to developments in four other countries (Canada, Holland, Denmark, and Norway) for which historical time-budget evidence is available.     

Abortion and contraception in the Korean fertility transition

Abstract In this paper the relationship between the use of abortion and contraception among married women in a society experiencing uronid decline in fertility is analysed using data from the Korean National Fertility Survey of 1974. The level and pattern of abortion before and after modern contraceptives became widely available are described, and the implications of the changing patterns of abortion and contraception are discussed.     

Antecedents to contraceptive innovation: Evidence from rural Northern Thailand

A number of different causal mechanisms have been proposed to explain the onset of fertility declines in populations with previously uncontrolled fertility, but they have never been adequately tested. The present study identifies and tests five antecedents to family limitation practices in a sample of 755 currently married couples resident in rural Northern Thailand. The loglinear multiple regression models estimated indicate that couples in more developed districts, more modern couples, couples in which wives have more equal roles, couples believing that intergenerational wealth transfers favor children rather than their parents, and more wealthy couples, were all significantly more likely to be early adopters of contraception. Local development levels appeared to have the greatest net effects on the timing of adoption of fertility control. In addition, couples in areas where contraceptive services were more readily available were also significantly more likely to be contraceptive innovators, net of these five variables.     

The role of marital sexual abstinence in determining fertility: A study of the Yoruba in Nigeria

Summary Although sexual abstinence has probably been the single most important factor in restricting human fertility, Western researchers have tended to regard it as a phenomenon mostly found outside marriage. The research reported here was carried out amongst the Yoruba, a sub Saharan people, among whom it is more desirable in terms of social stability to practise female sexual abstinence mainly within marriage, rather than outside it. A similar situation is found widely in tropical Africa. Data are reported from five surveys carried out in 1973-75 in the Changing African Family and Nigerian Family Projects. Three types of marital abstinence are shown to have an effect in reducing fertility: post-natal abstinence (often wrongly described as a 'taboo'), terminal abstinence, and abstinence at other times. Female sexual abstinence is not paralleled by an equal practice of male abstinence, and the main reason for abstinence is to preserve long birth intervals and periods of lactation in a society prone to high rates of infant malnutrition and mortality. It is shown that the Index of Proportions Married (I ( m )) is only one of a number of fertility-weighted indices which can be employed to sub-divide the female reproductive span, and that a complete series of indices adding to unity can be constructed. The duration of lactation and abstinence are found to be related but, because abstinence is traditionally of longer duration, lactation amenorrhoea is of little importance in containing fertility. Married women spend less than half their reproductive lives in periods when sexual relations are possible and marital abstinence is between three and four times more important than delayed marriage in restricting fertility. The period of abstinence is shown to be changing and it is probable that it has never been of an agreed length; the concept of 'natural fertility' is examined in this light. The partial substitution of contraception for the abstinence period is analysed, and the possible effect on fertility considered.     

Setbacks for pro-choice

In June, 1977, the U.S. House of Representatives voted against all abortion funding with Medicaid money, the Supreme Court issued 3 decisions stating that states are not required to finance abortions for low-income women, and the Senate limited Medicaid funding for abortion to pregnancies resulting from rape or incest or abortions deemed "medically necessary." These decisions will certainly result in increased antiabortion pressure on state legislatures to cut off state abortion funding and to restrict the provision of abortions in public hospitals. Private hospitals and clinics will have to reconsider their ability to subsidize abortion services for low-income women. These developments make it necessary for the procchoice lobby around the nation to reassess its political priorities.     

An economist's non-linear model of self-generated fertility waves

Summary Standard one-sex linear models of Lotka or Bernardelli always approach asymptotically an exponential growth mode with stable age distribution. Realistic non-linear models need not possess this property. The present analysis uncovers a possibly realistic ease where an existent mode of balanced growth is 'unstable', giving way when slightly perturbed to an asymptotic every-other generation limit cycle of determinable amplitude, and which is stable. The nonlinear model utilizes the hypothesis of R. A. Easterlin that age-specific fertility will tend to be lower for age classes that are relatively swollen in total number. By virtue of the law of diminishing returns, wages and feeling of security will tend to be low for such swollen groups. A possible rebound in fertility in the 1980s is implicit in the Easterlin hypothesis.     

Abortion in amsterdam

Abstract Mortality from abortion is low in the Netherlands to-day, and approximately equal to mortality at delivery. Calculations suggest that about 4,000 abortions occur in Amsterdam every year, of which about 2,100 are induced. The abortion rate shows a very gradual decline after the Second World War. An investigation of the social background of women with induced abortion showed no relationship between occupational group and the incidence of abortion, but a strong negative correlation between religion and abortion. Abortion was more common among women with disturbed relationships in their own or parental families. Induced abortion usually occurred in pregnancies resulting from failure of contraception; these failures were caused not by lack of knowledge of good contraceptives, but by ineffective practice of contraception. The inability to use contraceptive methods in an effective way is related to a lack of communication between the two partners, and to a negative attitude of the women towards sex. An attempt has been made to formulate a theory of the causes of induced abortion among the women interviewed in Amsterdam.