Population dynamics and drought: A village in Niger

Summary The paper reports the results of demographic research in a rural village of about 1500 Hausaspeaking farmers in southern Niger, during the winter of 1973-74. The research site lies at the heart of the Sahel-sudanic zone just to the south of the Sahara, where drought, and in some areas, famine have exacted a heavy human, animal, and economic toll since 1968. The study was designed to measure and explain the change in the size and structure of the population during the years 1969-73. Social anthropological field techniques were used to ensure full and accurate reporting by community residents on all census topics. Data on rainfall and crop yields, on health and sanitary conditions, and on the political economy, social organization, and culture of the village were gathered in order to interpret the demographic situation The analysis of this data yields the following conclusions: 1. The population of the village appears younger (mean age: 15 years) and growing faster (mean doubling time: 23 years) than reported for Niger as a whole in 1972. 2. Contrary to what the researchers expected, the crude death rate, while relatively high to begin with, actually declined during the drought period (mean: 14.81); the crude birth rate remained very high (mean: 46.01), and the crude rate of increase rose from 1969 to 1973. 3. There was virtually no family out-migration from the target village during the drought, although the number of adult males participating in seasonal migrations to large West African towns rose from 35 per cent in 1969-70 to 75 per cent in 1973-74. 4. Problems of food production and distribution were acute, but thanks to the availability of donated foods, these were sufficiently short-lived during this drought cycle to make no discernible impact on population, although prolonged protein/calorie malnutrition among the very young may affect future fecundity.     

The momentum of population growth with time dependent net maternity function

The momentum of population growth problem of Keyfitz is generalized to contain a gradual change of the age-specific birth rate ro the level of bare replacement. Assuming a time dependence for the net maternity function of the form (formula: see text) R being the net reproductive rate, we show that for the Malthusian model the asymptotic birth rate is increased by exp (r/lambda), where r is the rate of increase of the population before t = 0. A numerical method for obtaining the asymptotic birth rate for a general net maternity function with the same time dependence is outlined.     

Toward a general theory of fertility: A causal modeling approach

A general theory of fertility is derived hypothesizing that the demand for children is primarily an outcome of social psychological processes within the family, subject to certain socioeconomic constraints. Two broad social psychological processes are posited as determinants of fertility. The first suggests that the attitudes or tastes of family members influence the demand for children. The second maintains that the nature of the husband-wife interaction (in terms of power, conflict, decision making, and marital satisfaction) determines family size. Socioeconomic variables, in the form of the normative social structure and social stratification, and economic constraints, such as income and price, are hypothesized to influence fertility through their impact on social psychological processes within the family. The overall theory is tested on two independent samples—one in Ankara, Turkey, the second in Mexico City, Mexico—using a structural equation methodology.     

A note on the use ofregression methods in population estimates

Evidence which has emerged in the past few years indicates that the relative accuracy of population estimates derived from the ratio-correlation method and the difference-correlation method varies from state to state. In assessing the possible reasons why neither technique is uniformly more accurate, attention is focused on the temporal instability of the statistical relationships between symptomatic indicators and population change. The author concludes that further improvement in population estimates based on regression techniques is likely to be limited until demographers derive means of measuring and adjusting for these temporal changes.     

Forced online: push factors of internet sexuality: A preliminary study of online paraphilic empowerment

Online sexual behavior may be more completely explained by integrating a Pull Factor analysis, centering on the characteristics of the Internet that make it an appealing outlet for sexuality (e.g., "Triple A Engine") and a Push Factor analysis, centering on characteristics of the offline world that disallow fulfillment of sexual desires. This new framework is utilized in explaining paraphilic (unconventional) sexualities online. Because paraphilics are members of highly concealable, horizontal and rare sexual minorities, they are pushed online by mainstream society. Online, paraphilics interact with similar others, and through lurking, re-learning and self-disclosing, may become sexually empowered. Clinical ramifications of attainment of positive sexual-social identity via empowerment are discussed, as are possible affects on public policy.     

Expression and ambivalence over expression of negative emotion:psychometric analysis in the Women's Health Initiative

Inhibition of emotional expression has been associated with the incidence and progression of breast cancer and other chronic illnesses. Others have theorized that it may not be repression itself, but rather ambivalence over the expression of emotions that is the important health-related factor. The Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a long-term, national study focusing on disease prevention among postmenopausal women, is unique in its assessment of expression and ambivalence of negative emotion in a large study sample of multiethnic, older women. Psychological factors such as expression of negative emotion and ambivalence about expression of emotion are also determined by social patterning. The current study examined the psychometric properties of the instruments used to measure each construct and variation across race/ethnicity and age. The analysis suggests that the scales can be used with confidence in diverse ethnic and age groups. Examining ambivalence about expression of negative emotion in future longitudinal research will further elucidate its role in predicting disease incidence and recovery, both important in reducing the public health burden of chronic disease.