The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country's population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This "sending-country birth cohort" method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.     

When caregiving ends: the course of depressive symptoms after bereavement

This study describes depressive symptoms among caregivers following bereavement and connects these trajectories to earlier features of caregiving using life course and stress process theory. Data are from a six-wave longitudinal survey (five years) of spouses and adult children caring for someone with Alzheimer's Disease. The analytic subsample (N = 291) is defined by death of the care-recipient after the baseline interview. A latent class mixture model is used to identify distinctive clusters of depressive symptoms over time. Of the four trajectories identified, three represent stable symptom levels over time, with two-thirds being repeatedly symptomatic (medium symptom levels), compared to two smaller groups of repeatedly asymptomatic (effectively absent of symptoms) and repeatedly distressed (severe symptoms). In contrast, about one in five caregivers experiences improved emotional well-being over time, the temporarily distressed, who progress from severe to moderate symptom levels. Caregivers with few symptoms before bereavement tend to maintain these states afterwards, but emotionally distressed caregivers tend to become more distressed. Role overload before bereavement substantially increases the odds of following an unfavorable trajectory afterwards, whereas self-esteem and socioemotional support play protective roles. These results demonstrate that caregivers are not uniform in their emotional responses to bereavement, but follow several distinct trajectories. These trajectories are linked to their previous experiences as caregivers, in particular exposure to stressors and access to resources. These findings suggest that intervention during caregiving may facilitate adaptation following death of a loved one.     

The voter who wasn’t there: Referenda,representation and abstention

We analyze single binary-choice voting rules and identify the presence of the No-Show paradox in this simple setting, as a consequence of specific turnout or quorum conditions that are included in actual rules. Since these conditions are meant to ensure a representative outcome, we formalize this concern and reach our main result: no voting rule can ensure representation if abstention is possible, unless restrictive assumptions are made on the preference domain of abstainers. We then focus on the main referendum systems and show that appropriate restrictions do make them compatible with representation. The main purpose of our paper is, however, to provide a tool for referendum design: rather than imposing arbitrary restrictions on the preference domain of non-voters, we recommend instead that a conscious choice be made on how abstention is to be interpreted and that this choice be used to derive the corresponding referendum rule.The idea for this paper started with some jocose but insightful notes written by José João Marques da Silva at the time of the first referendum held in Portugal (1998). When José João passed away in August 2000, ISEG lost a bright, interested and friendly scholar. May we dedicate this paper to his memory. This paper was presented at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society and Economic Science Association, San Diego, CA and a preliminary version was presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society, Paris. We would like to thank Mathew Braham, Moshé Machover, Eric Maskin, Vincent Merlin, Hannu Nurmi, Katri Sieberg, Frank Steffen, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual proviso applies.     

Evaluation of two school-based HIV prevention interventions in the border city of Tijuana, Mexico

This research project examined the individual and combined effectiveness of an HIV prevention workshop and a free condom distribution program in four high schools in Tijuana, Mexico. Adolescents (N = 320) completed baseline measures on sexual practices and theoretical correlates and participated in a two-part study. In Study 1, students were randomly assigned to an HIV prevention workshop or a control condition, with a 3-month follow-up assessment. Results indicate three significant workshop benefits regarding HIV transmission by altering sexual initiation, access to condoms, and traditional beliefs regarding condoms. In Study 2, we set up a condom distribution program at two of the participating schools, and students completed a 6-month follow-up assessment. Results indicate that exposure to the workshop followed by access to the condom distribution program yielded two beneficial results for reducing HIV transmission: moderating sexual initiation and increasing condom acquisition. Access to the condom distribution program alone had no effects on behavioral and psychosocial correlates of HIV transmission. We discuss implications of these results.     

Determinants of sexual arousal and accuracy of its self-estimation in sexually functional males

Men with and without sexual dysfunction present with varying patterns of agreement between subjective estimates of sexual arousal and more objective psychophysiological measures of the same construct. This relative accuracy seems to be associated with sexual function, with men who have sexual dysfunction presenting less accurate estimations (mostly reporting below measured arousal levels). The purpose of this study is to clarify the processes underlying sexual arousal and the accuracy of its self-estimation. We looked at potential predictors of sexual arousal (subjective and physiological) and accuracy in estimating objective sexual arousal in a sample of 60 sexually functional males. Predictors included pre-existing sexual attitudes (erotophobia), both trait and state positive and negative affect, self-focused attention, and interoceptive awareness. Results indicate that this sexually functional sample generally reported below their own erection level. Interestingly, trait negative affect was associated with somewhat lower levels of subjective arousal and higher levels of physiological arousal. On the other hand, state positive affect facilitated both subjective and objective arousal and increased somewhat the accuracy of estimates of erectile responding. Pre-existing sexual attitudes as well as variations in self-focused attention and interoceptive awareness evidenced little effect on sexual arousal or the accuracy of its estimation.     

Exploring the prevalence and correlates of methamphetamine use: findings from Sacramento's ADAM program

Anecdotal reports have suggested that the use and abuse of methamphetamine is increasing in the United States. To date, however, few scholarly works have explored the prevalence and correlates of methamphetamine use in the United States. To address this limitation, a secondary analysis was undertaken with data collected through the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) Program. An examination of methamphetamine-positive rates among ADAM arrestees interviewed between 1991 and 2001 identified that its use is concentrated within the Western part of the United States. Supplementary analyses of Sacramento arrestees indicated that 71% were diagnosed as needing some form of alcohol or other drug treatment. Compared to those arrestees who were detected methamphetamine-negative, methamphetamine-positive arrestees in Sacramento were three times as likely to be white and to have been diagnosed in need of drug treatment. Implications for drug control policy are discussed.