解码理论在日语听力理解中的运用

在日语学习中,因受语言环境和学习方法的限制,听力被认为是提高日语水平和成绩的一大难关。作者遵循听觉系统中听力的解码理论,以一年一度的国际日本语能力测试题为例,提出并具体分析了提高日语听力的三种模式———预测法、捕捉法和贯穿法,并指出运用这些技巧时应注意的几个问题。期望学习者能克服心理障碍,讲究科学的方法,把这些模式积极运用到平时的训练和测试中去,以此来提高日语听力水平和成绩。     

Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

Testing How Management Matters in an Era of Government by Performance Management

Public administration finds itself in an era of government byperformance management, which is reflected in the widespreadassumption that management is a key determinant of performance,and that it is reasonable to expect managers to measurably improveorganizational effectiveness. This article joins a growing literaturein seeking to conceptualize and empirically test how externalenvironmental influences and internal management factors combineto create performance, relying on data from the 2002–2003National Administrative Studies Project (NASP-II) survey ofstate government health and human services officials. We categorizemanagerial efforts to facilitate organizational performanceas determined either through their interactions with the organizationalenvironment, or through employing workable levers to changeinternal organizational culture, structure, and technology.Among the external environmental variables we find that thesupport of elected officials and the influence of the publicand media have a positive impact on effectiveness. Among internalmanagement choices, the ability to create a developmental organizationalculture, establish a focus on results through goal clarity,and decentralize decision-making authority are all positivelyassociated with organizational effectiveness.     

Asymptotic bias in the linear mixed effects model under non-ignorable missing data mechanisms

Summary.  In longitudinal studies, missingness of data is often an unavoidable problem. Estimators from the linear mixed effects model assume that missing data are missing at random. However, estimators are biased when this assumption is not met. In the paper, theoretical results for the asymptotic bias are established under non-ignorable drop-out, drop-in and other missing data patterns. The asymptotic bias is large when the drop-out subjects have only one or no observation, especially for slope-related parameters of the linear mixed effects model. In the drop-in case, intercept-related parameter estimators show substantial asymptotic bias when subjects enter late in the study. Eight other missing data patterns are considered and these produce asymptotic biases of a variety of magnitudes.     

解决我国农业剩余劳动力就业问题的思路

农业剩余劳动力的就业问题 ,是我国经济中的一个重要问题。要解决好这一问题 ,就需要制定引导农业劳动力转移的战略 ,多方寻求劳动力转移的途径 ,努力提高农业劳动力素质 ,建立健全劳动力市场 ,营造有利于农业剩余劳动力就业的制度环境 ,控制人口过快增长     

林业发展阶段研究概述

阶段性是事物发展必须遵循的一个客观规律,林业的发展同样也具有阶段性.只有充分认识各个时期林业发展所处的历史阶段和相应特征,才能更好地制定政策和发展战略.该文将以往的林业方面的阶段性研究加以综述,以期获得收益和启发,并为以后的研究打下基础.     

Modelling data from single-photon emission computerized tomography

The completely random character of radioactive disintegration provides the basis of a strong justification for a Poisson linear model for single-photon emission computed tomography data, which can be used to produce reconstructions of isotope densities, whether by maximum likelihood or Bayesian methods. However, such a model requires the construction of a matrix of weights, which represent the mean rates of arrival at each detector of photons originating from each point within the body space. Two methods of constructing these weights are discussed, and reconstructions resulting from phantom and real data are presented.