APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

The basic concepts and application of spectral analysis are explained. Stationary time series and autocorrelation are first defined. Autocorrelation is related to the familiar concepts of variance and covariance. The use of autocorrelation analysis is explained in estimating the interdependent relationship of a time series over discrete time lags. In order to measure the behavior of the time series using autocorrelation, it would be necessary to examine a very large number of autocorrelation lags. Alternatively, the technique of Fourier analysis can be used to transform the autocorrelation function of the time series into a continuous function, termed a spectrum. The spectrum has a one to one correspondence to the autocorrelation for the time series and has the advantage of representing all possible autocorrelations over the discrete time lags. The spectrum can then be examined as a measure of the behavior of the time series. Spectral analysis indicates the reliability of the analysis of autocorrelated variables when familiar statistical techniques such as sample means and variances are used. The application of spectral analysis to management science problems in three general areas is illustrated: (1) inventory demand, (2) transportation simulation, and (3) stock market price behavior. Spectral analysis was used to detect cycles and trends in the data. Analyses were focused on the spectrum which provides a measure of the relative contribution of cycles in a band of frequencies to the total variance of the data.     

The header stack-barge: Folk technology on the north American plains

The header stack-barge was a device that farmers on the American and Canadian plains invented to adapt wheat harvesting machinery to the special requirements of their semi-arid region. Although it appeared at points scattered throughout the length of the North American plains, its greatest use was in Alberta and Saskatchewan during the 1930s. The development of the header stack-barge was an outstanding example of folk technology in the agricultural history of the Great Plains, showing the conditions under which folk invention might flourish and the way it might interact with government extension agents. The case of the header stack-barge then is of consequence both to folklore and to concepts of Great Plains regionalism.     

Multicriterion linear programming problems : (Analytical survey)

An analytical survey of man-machine interactive procedures is presented. A decision maker's capabilities to carry out some information processing operations are discussed. A list of a decision maker's elementary operations used in different interactive procedures is given and their estimations from a psychological point of view are suggested. Three main criteria for estimation of man-machine procedures are proposed: reliability of information elicitation from decision maker, insignificant sensitivity to random decision maker's errors, and good speed of convergence to solution. Some procedures are evaluated in terms of these criteria.     

Cultural Consequences on Excellence in Public Diplomacy

The purpose of this study is to advance the contextual study of public diplomacy—the inquiry into the influences of a government's contextual variables on its practice and management of public diplomacy. To meet this aim, this study investigated the empirical associations between Hofstede's cultural dimensions and Excellence in public diplomacy, a conception of excellence in public diplomacy developed from the Excellence study, based on survey data from 52 embassies in Washington, DC. The findings suggest that the uncertainty avoidance dimension has substantial and significant empirical associations with Excellence in public diplomacy. Additionally, not only low uncertainty avoidance cultures but also individualist and low power distance cultures are more conducive to the Excellence than are their counterparts. Nonetheless, the findings have an implication that, in terms of associational magnitude, the overall contextual effects of societal culture on the Excellence may not be strong.     

METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES*†

In many situations where normative decision-aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers. This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC THEORY OF THE MULTI—PRODUCT FIRM USING THE CALCULUS OF VARIATIONS

The purpose of this paper is to present the theory of the multi-product firm in situations where the revenue function depends not only on the rate of output but also on changes in the rate of output, and, similarly, where the cost function depends on changes in the rate of factor utilization as well as the rate of their utilization. Since the analysis will utilize the calculus of variations, a general introduction to this technique is also presented. The model analyzed assumes perfect foresight and knowledge concerning the revenue, cost, and production functions, and the calculus of variations is used to derive the conditions for an extremum. The first section presents the mathematical model and the model of the firm, and the optimality conditions are discussed in the second section.     

APPLICATION AND IMPLEMENTATION

Organizations are in constant interaction with their environment. This phenomenon has been termed in the literature as the environment-organizational interface. An organization acquires information concerning changes in its environment via some scanning system. This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of the scanning process. The relationships of scanning to different environmental states is discussed and various propositions advanced. Different environmental states (stable versus dynamic) are moderated by the determinants of hierarchical levels and functional specialties in the firm.