Population growth and poverty measurement

If the absolute number of poor people goes up, but the fraction of people in poverty comes down, has poverty gone up or gone down? The economist’s instinct, framed by population replication axioms that undergird standard measures of poverty, is to say that in this case poverty has gone down. But this goes against the instinct of those who work directly with the poor, for whom the absolute numbers notion makes more sense as they cope with more poor on the streets or in the soup kitchens. This paper attempts to put these two conceptions of poverty into a common framework. Specifically, it presents an axiomatic development of a family of poverty measures without a population replication axiom. This family has an intuitive link to standard measures, but it also allows one or other of “the absolute numbers” or the “fraction in poverty” conception to be given greater weight by the choice of relevant parameters. We hope that this family will prove useful in empirical and policy work, where it is important to give both views of poverty—the economist’s and the practitioner’s—their due.     

Adaptive Crossover Design for Normal Responses

In a response-adaptive design, we review and update the trial on the basis of outcomes in order to achive a specific goal. In clinical trials our goal is to allocate a larger number of patients to the better treatment. In the present paper, we use a response adaptive design in a two-treatment two-period crossover trial where the treatment responses are continuous. We provide probability measures to choose between the possible treatment combinations AA, AB, BA, or BB. The goal is to use the better treatment combination a larger number of times. We calculate the allocation proportions to the possible treatment combinations and their standard errors. We also derive some asymptotic results and provide solutions on related inferential problems. The proposed procedure is compared with a possible competitor. Finally, we use a data set to illustrate the applicability of our proposed design.     

An improved estimator of omission rate for census count: With particular reference to India

ABSTRACT

Every large census operation should undergo evaluation programs to find the sources and extent of inherent coverage errors. In this article, we briefly discuss the statistical methodology to estimate the omission rate in Indian census using dual-system estimation (DSE) technique. We have explicitly studied the correlation bias factor involved in the estimate, its extent, and consequences. A new potential source of bias in the estimate is identified and discussed. During the survey, more efficient enumerators compared to the census operations are appointed, and this fact may inflate the dependency between two lists and lead to a significant bias. Some examples are given to demonstrate this argument in various plausible situations. We have suggested one simple and flexible approach which can control this bias. Our proposed estimator can efficiently overcome the potential bias by achieving the desired degree of accuracy (almost unbiased) with relatively higher efficiency. Overall improvements in the results are explored through simulation study on different populations.     

A Bayes comparison of Weibull extension and modified Weibull models for data showing bathtub hazard rate

A number of models have been proposed in the literature to model data reflecting bathtub-shaped hazard rate functions. Mixture distributions provide the obvious choice for modelling such data sets but these contain too many parameters and hamper the accuracy of the inferential procedures particularly when the data are meagre. Recently, a few distributions have been proposed which are simply generalizations of the two-parameter Weibull model and are capable of producing bathtub behaviour of the hazard rate function. The Weibull extension and the modified Weibull models are two such families. This study focuses on comparing these two distributions for data sets exhibiting bathtub shape of the hazard rate. Bayesian tools are preferred due to their wide range of applicability in various nested and non-nested model comparison problems. Real data illustrations are provided so that a particular model can be recommended based on various tools of model comparison discussed in the paper.     

Civic-secular and ethnic nationalisms as bases of the nation-state: multiculturalism at the crossroads? 1

The dominant Eurocentric paradigm of the nation and the nation-state was premised on western historical experience that was indigenous to the west but claimed universality for the rest. Many post-colonial countries, particularly those that went through national liberation struggles, like India and China, with multi-ethnic mobilisations, established sovereign states. The nationalist leaders claimed the unity of nationhood for their culturally diverse countries (states), with their millennia-deep civilisational identity, compelling a new discourse on the untenability of the classic Eurocentric paradigm. The second development witnessed the inevitable cultural heterogenisation of the western countries premised on the expansion of the (immigrant) labour market through an ever-enveloping regime of economic liberalisation and world trade. The catharsis of the invasion of cheaper labour from culturally diverse countries, often native-displacing, resulted in western countries attempting to accommodate the emerging changing reality in the context of mono-cultural nations through the concept and policy of multiculturalism. In spite of this, western countries have been witness to intercultural violence, racial discrimination and threats of home grown terrorism. The paper seeks to distinguish between ‘pluralism’ and ‘multiculturalism’ and argues for a reformulation of the concept of the nation-state that will have greater applicability across states.     

Simultaneous semi-sequential testing of dual alternatives for pattern recognition

In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric simultaneous test for dual alternatives. Simultaneous tests for dual alternatives are used for pattern detection of arsenic contamination level in ground water. We consider two possible patterns, namely, monotone shift and an umbrella-type location alternative, as the dual alternatives. Pattern recognition problems of this nature are addressed in Bandyopadhyay et al. [5], stretching the idea of multiple hypotheses tests as in Benjamini and Hochberg [6]. In the present context, we develop an alternative approach based on contrasts that helps us to detect three underlying pattern much more efficiently. We illustrate the new methodology through a motivating example related to highly sensitive issue of arsenic contamination in ground water. We provide some Monte-Carlo studies related to the proposed technique and give a comparative study between different detection procedures. We also obtain some related asymptotic results.     

ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF MAJORITY RULE

We show that simple majority rule satisfies five standard and attractive axioms—the Pareto property, anonymity, neutrality, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and (generic) decisiveness—over a larger class of preference domains than (essentially) any other voting rule. Hence, in this sense, it is the most robust voting rule. This characterization of majority rule provides an alternative to that of May (1952). (JEL: D71)     

An Exploratory Study of Older Adults' Engagement with Virtual Volunteerism

Virtual volunteering refers to the use of the Internet for volunteer services. It is an emerging phenomenon among every age group; however, the current study examines if it is a viable option for older people. Older adults are the fastest growing Internet users. They are also more civic minded than younger generations, thus the purpose of this study is to explore this relatively new area research. Data for this study have been collected using qualitative tools such as semistructured, partly open-ended interviews with older virtual volunteers affiliated with SeniorNet, an organization that facilitates virtual volunteering exclusively for older people. The study ends with suggestions for future research directions. Implications of this study include reconceptualization of virtual volunteering as a strategic tool to recruit older adults and greater usage of information communication technologies to promote civic engagement among older people and, thus, positively influence their health and well-being.     

Ranking Income Distributions by Deprivation Orderings

This paper has examined the problem of ranking income distributions using absolute deprivation ordering. It appears that the ranking of distributions by this ordering may be more unambiguous than that generated by the relative deprivation ordering. The class of average deprivation indices consistent with the absolute deprivation criterion is also identified.     

Bayesian and likelihood-based inference for the bivariate normal correlation coefficient

The paper develops some objective priors for correlation coefficient of the bivariate normal distribution. The criterion used is the asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. The paper uses various matching criteria, namely, quantile matching, highest posterior density matching, and matching via inversion of test statistics. Each matching criterion leads to a different prior for the parameter of interest. We evaluate their performance by comparing credible intervals through simulation studies. In addition, inference through several likelihood-based methods have been discussed.