The Middle‐class in the German Welfare State: Beneficial Involvement at Stake?

The working‐class is typically regarded as the driving force of welfare state development. Yet, some argue that the middle‐classes' beneficial involvement in the welfare state is crucial for its financial sustainability and popular legitimacy. Against this backdrop, we investigate how recent welfare state reforms in Germany which affect the status of the middle‐class are viewed and discussed by this group. Germany is a particularly interesting case because its welfare state is seen to be centred on the desires of the middle‐class, especially through its focus on status maintenance and horizontal redistribution over the life‐course. However, the move from status maintenance to minimum income support in unemployment provision and the strengthening of private old age provision challenge this assumption. Thus, we ask how the German middle‐class views the emerging abandonment of the principle of status maintenance and the shift from collective to individual responsibility. Based on qualitative material from focus groups, we find that individual responsibility is generally supported, but that the state is still assigned responsibility for providing basic levels of social security. Furthermore, for those groups seen as less capable of acting individually responsible (e.g. the poor or long‐term unemployed) the ‘inducement’ of – or assistance for – individually responsible behaviour by the state is demanded. Overall, while the principle of ‘individual responsibility’ seems to find some resonance among the middle‐class members interviewed, they still try to balance individual and collective responsibility.     

Determining Sample Size Using Fast and Slow Thinking

ABSTRACT

Using SPSS's bootstrapping procedures, this article demonstrates an approach to determining sample size that combines fast (heuristics or rules-of-thumb) and slow (statistical power analysis) thinking to balance statistical power, precision, and practicality. Sample size is determined for six commonly used statistical procedures: independent groups t-test, one-way ANOVA, one-way MANOVA, Pearson's r correlation, linear regression, and logistic regression. Overall, findings suggest that both approaches may under or over-estimate sample size. Both approaches yielded similar parameter and confidence interval estimates, but varied, sometimes by a factor of two, in their sample size requirements. It is hoped that this study's procedure and results will provide beginning reference points for sample size determination, and encourage researchers continue to search for resolutions for often difficult sample-size decisions.     

农民的发展：新农村建设的价值目标和优先路径

农民问题是“三农”问题的首要问题，其实质是农民在基本解决生存问题之后如何获得进一步发展。以人为本，促进农民的发展，是新农村建设的价值目标。开发农村人力资源、提升农民的发展能力是新农村建设的首要任务。包括教育投资和健康投资在内的、旨在提高人口素质的投资回报率最高，理应成为新农村建设的优先路径选择。公共财政应重点投入到农村义务教育和公共卫生服务领域。     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Subnational Location Capital: The Role of Subnational Institutional Actors and Socio‐spatial Factors on Firm Location

Firms do not simply locate, but rather seek to accrue location‐based advantages such as knowledge, market insidership and resource utilization. Adopting the lens of social capital, this paper explores how subnational institutional actors facilitate location capital for firms. Using qualitative case study analysis of six multinational companies (MNCs), we highlight the important role of subnational institutional actors in fostering three dimensions of subnational location capital – structural, relational and cognitive. We show that subnational location capital, defined as the economic and social assets accessible through relationships within a subnational location, enable firms to derive advantages via subnational engagement. These findings contribute to the growing literature on the dynamic interaction of firms with subnational location, particularly the nuanced role of subnational institutional actors with MNCs.     

川滇黔交界区域苗、彝、回族际通婚现状调查研究

历史上川滇黔交界区域苗、彝、回、汉等民族之间不通婚的情况在方志中有所记载,现当代的一些调查资料也反映出这一事实。新中国成立以来,随着族际交往日益频繁,当地各民族之间逐渐开始通婚,尤其是改革开放以后,族际通婚现象日益普遍,数量比例呈增长趋势,通婚半径也不断扩大。当地苗族、彝族、回族的族际通婚对象以汉族为主,且存在着民族、地区、性别等差异。从“族内婚”到大规模的“族际婚”,民族政策、外部环境、文化趋同等客观因素发挥了重要作用,而民族心理这一主观因素则起着决定性的作用。     

Can Demographic Variables Predict Lottery and Pari-mutuel Losses? An Empirical Investigation

Using data from the 2004 and 2005 Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES) comprising of 15,000 respondents, this study examines two research questions. The first of these considers the demographic differences between households whose members lose money playing the lottery and/or engaging in pari-mutuel betting and those whose members do not lose money participating in such activities. The second assesses demographic differences among households whose members lose money playing the lottery and/or engaging in pari-mutuel betting. It was found that respondents living in money-losing households are slightly older, better off financially, more likely to be married or divorced, more likely to live in a state with at least one legal casino and more likely to live in the Northeast than respondents living in non-money-losing households. Among those living in money-losing households, the least wealthy and African American respondents are more likely to lose a higher proportion of their respective incomes purchasing lottery tickets and engaging in pari-mutuel betting than wealthier respondents and whites.     

The De/Repoliticization of Cooperation and the Discourse of Conversion1

Abstract In recent years, several agricultural cooperatives have undergone significant restructuring. Some have been taken through a conversion process and have been reorganized as “investor-oriented firms” (IOFs). This phenomenon has attracted the interest of agricultural economists, but it has not been analyzed by sociologists. This article examines the discourse with which agricultural economists have approached the conversion issue. Drawing upon Fraser's discussion of “needs talk,” and inspired by Kloppenburg's analysis of the agricultural scientific complex, an argument is made that a reprivatization discourse of neoclassical economics has effectively depoliticized discussion about the future of cooperative enterprise. It is further argued that a repoliticization of cooperation is necessary in order to assure the protection of extra-economic values and oppositional discourse that is embedded in the historical development of cooperative practices and institutions. We focus here on the role of expert discourse as it relates to the reinvention of cooperative institutions in the agricultural economy. It is argued that this discourse would be improved by greater attention to historical and sociological forces, rather than remaining narrowly focused on economism.     

What is to be done about unemployment?

The rate of unemployment in Britain has been rising, and will doubtless continue to rise for the foreseeable future. On present trends any significant fall in the rate of unemployment appears improbable. We face the prospect of unemployment in the 1980s as severe as that experienced in the 1930s when only at its worst did the rate rise to the equivalent of nearly four million in today's terms. Against this background it is natural to despair of solutions. Certainly we cannot provide a policy which will produce an immediate return to ‘full employment’. but there are opportunities available for appreciably improving employment prospects. Particular policies are discussed and recommended in this paper, and the initiative has to be taken now.     

Lorenz non-consistent welfare and inequality measurement

Typical welfare and inequality measures are required to be Lorenz consistent which guarantees that inequality decreases and welfare increases as a result of a progressive transfer. We explore the implications for welfare and inequality measurement of substituting the weaker absolute differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings for the Lorenz quasi-ordering. Restricting attention to distributions of equal means, we show that the utilitarian model – the so-called expected utility model in the theory of risk – does not permit one to make a distinction between the views embedded in the differentials, deprivation and Lorenz quasi-orderings. In contrast it is possible within the dual model of M. Yaari (Econometrica 55 (1987), 99–115) to derive the restrictions to be placed on the weighting function which guarantee that the corresponding welfare orderings are consistent with the differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings respectively. Finally we drop the equal mean condition and indicate the implications of our approach for the absolute ethical inequality indices.