A reconstruction of the population of North Italy from 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with comparisons to England,France, and Sweden

North Italy annual population and vital rates are reconstructed from 1650 to 1881 using series of vital event indices from many rural parishes and cities. Inverse projection is applied to the reconstructed series of vital events and population to generate annual age distribution, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate. The results are compared with official sources and detailed demographic rates produced by annual inverse projection using data from England, France, and Sweden. Over the long term, North Italy is generally characterized by stagnant and relatively high mortality. Fertility and nuptiality are relatively high at the beginning and at the end of the period.     

Positive Development in a Disorderly World

Adolescents need to develop competencies to navigate an adult world that is complex and disorderly: a world of heterogeneous macro‐ to microecological systems containing contradictions and catch‐22s. This exploratory essay examines adolescents' conscious processes of developing pertinent competencies for pursuing goals (agency) in these kinds of “real‐world” settings. It draws on qualitative longitudinal research on youth's experiences working on arts and community projects in which they encounter the irregular dynamics of complex human systems. I describe how youth develop “strategic thinking”: executive skills for formulating strategies based on forecasting dynamics in navigating these systems. I also describe how youth learn to manage emotions (in self and others) that arise in these real‐world transactions and how they develop motivation that sustains their work toward goals. Even as we learn more about the biological hardware of development, I argue that we must study youth's conscious, proactive processes in developing their own “software” to navigate complex and disorderly human worlds.     

THE CASE FOR PARITY AND BIRTH-ORDER STATISTICS

Parity refers to the number of (live) births that a woman (or man) has had. Birth order refers to whether a birth is the first, second, third or higher‐order birth of the parent. In the context of low and shifting fertility, parity and birth‐order statistics are becoming increasingly important for understanding fertility trends and patterns, for policy, and for carrying out projections of future fertility. In Australia, the main sources of demographic data are birth, death and marriage registers, and the five‐yearly national census. Both the birth registers and the census are ideally placed to collect data required to calculate parity and birth‐order statistics. However not all Australian states and territories collect or code the necessary information in the birth registers, and the parity question ‘For each female, how many babies has she ever had?’ is only asked every second census; that is, once every 10 years. In this paper, we outline the importance and uses of parity and birth‐order statistics. We discuss the Australian data available at present and their gaps and shortcomings. We then describe the ‘gold standard’ of parity and birth‐order statistics and how Australia can achieve this standard through some minor changes to the data collection process.     

Religious intermarriage in Canada, 1974-1982

"This paper reviews recent literature, with particular reference to Canada, on religious intermarriage. The importance of intramarriage in the cross-generation maintenance of subcultural values is emphasized. Recent trends in religious outmarriage and the major explanations and correlates of these trends are considered. Recent data published by Statistics Canada is examined for the nine year period between 1974-1982."     

Not for Bread Alone—Motivation Among Hospital Employees in Singapore

Through a series of interviews and a literature review this paper uncovers the key sources of motivation among employees in hospitals in Singapore. The study examines the use of several non-monetary rewards Singaporean managers can rely on to motivate their employees in service industries. One vital finding of this study is that there should be value congruence and person/environment-fit.     

Matching Communities and Hierarchies within the Firm

This article, which draws on recent literature on organizational communities, raises the question of the coherence of the firm through the analysis of the dialectic interaction between hierarchies and Knowledge-Intensive Communities (KnICs) within the firm. Focusing on the cognitive dimension of the firm, we analyze the matching between hierarchies and KnICs and draw conclusions as to the coherence of the firm. Using two key elements (the frequency of interactions and the intensity of communication between communities), we draw a typology allowing a better understanding of the processes of coordination and knowledge creation within the firm. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multidimension scaling for multiobjective policies

This paper develops and expands the use of multidimension scaling techniques (MDSCAL) as applied in the two separate fields of psychological testing and archaeology to the problem of multiple criteria decision making. Other work by the author published elsewhere shows that it is feasible to use MDSCAL for drawing maps of separate policies using very weak input information from which deductions as to most preferred and least preferred policies may be drawn. An application of this method is made, to show its use and a comparison made with the utility approach. The final, and main, part of the paper examines the robustness of the method for both deterministic and probabilistic input criteria. In this examination it is seen that the mapping method performs very well in picking up extremes of preference even under severe tests of robustness.     

The ‘ART' of knowledge:: Systems to capitalize on market knowledge

The authors argue that current knowledge management practice, which focuses on managing explicit data and information technology, is not enough. Tacit knowledge, such as subjective insights or emotions must also be considered.Converting between these forms of knowledge is important, and the concept of ART (action–reflex–trigger) systems is introduced to enable this to take place. ART systems enable companies to implement a multi-dynamic approach to knowledge management.The complex concept of ‘ba' is introduced—a shared mental space for knowledge creation—which provides a foundation for knowledge creation. The authors explore the nature, context and enabling conditions for ART systems and show how ba can be employed in ART systems.A case study—of the Seven-Eleven Japan corporation is presented, whose outstanding success is based on the capitalization of market knowledge, striking a balance between supportive IT and human insight, to achieve a multi-dynamic approach to knowledge management. The company integrates several interlinked ba and ART systems.     

A method for estimating age-specific reference intervals ('normal ranges') based on fractional polynomials and exponential transformation

The age-specific reference interval is an important screening tool in medicine. Put crudely, an individual whose value of a variable of interest lies outside certain extreme centiles may be suspected of abnormality. We propose a parametric method for constructing such intervals. It provides smooth centile curves and explicit formulae for the centile estimates and for standard deviation (SD) scores (age-standardized values). Each parameter of an exponential–normal or modulus–exponential–normal density is modelled as a fractional polynomial function of age. Estimation is by maximum likelihood. These three- and four-parameter models involve transformations of the data towards normality which remove non-normal skewness and/or kurtosis. Fractional polynomials provide more flexible curve shapes than do conventional polynomials. The method easily accommodates binary covariates facilitating, for example, parsimonious modelling of age- and sex-specific centile curves. A method of calculating precision profiles for centile estimates is proposed. Goodness of fit is assessed by using Q–Q -plots and Shapiro–Wilk W -tests of the SD scores, and likelihood ratio tests of the parameters of an enlarged model. Four substantial real data sets are used to illustrate the method. Comparisons are made with the semiparametric LMS method of Cole and Green.