Wirth,Whiskey, and WASP's: Some Consequences of Community Size for Alcohol Use*†

Several themes in Wirth's “Urbanism as a Way of Life” generate the prediction that alcohol use (versus nonuse) will be more widespread among residents of urban areas. Multiple regression analysis of data from two recent national polls (1966, 1968) reveals support for this prediction. With eight other key sociological variables simultaneously controlled, the greater the urbanism of a community (measured in terms of community size), the greater the proportion of alcohol users it contains. To make certain that this association is due to urban conditions (as opposed to merely the absence of rural forces which encourage abstinence), the effects of rural forces are reduced by omitting the most rural categories of the community size measure of urbanism, and the data are reexamined. The association still persists, basically because of the larger proportion of middle to upper status, white, and Protestant alcohol users in the more urban areas.     

The end of rapid increase in the use of oral anovulants? Some problems in the interpretation of time series of oral use among married women

Several problems in the interpretation of time series of oral anovulant usage are discussed, among them the shifting marriage-duration distribution over time. Standardization fails to negate the conclusion that the rate of increase in the proportion of women using orals has slackened since January 1966. Separate analyses by duration-specific rates of use and by marriage cohorts show that the two factors sustaining the initial spectacular growth rate in the use of orals-the ever—higher initial use rates of new marriage cohorts and the rapid adoption of orals among earlier cohorts at later durations—have lost their sustaining force. Further analysis indicates that concern over the pill as a health hazard is a major deterrent to substantial increase in oral usage. A final distribution of women by risk status with respect to oral use, and current and prospective oral use, shows that under present circumstances the maximum oral use rate will be considerably less than unity.     

Son survivorship motivation and family size in India: A computer simulation

Abstract Many sociologists and demographers have argued that the comparatively large families of six to eight children found in rural India to-day result from ignorance of family planning methods, from tradition, and from passive indecision; and that large reductions in the Indian growth rate to Western levels would occur spontaneously if each Indian family were given access to birth control facilities, materials and information. On the other hand, it has been maintained that large family sizes are functional for rural families in India and other developing countries; and that they result from conscious or unconscious choice based upon enlightened self-interest.     

The Interaction Between Role Structures and Self-Conceptions in Fostering Different Types of Self-Esteem in Innovative and Traditional Elementary Schools*

A two-dimensional model of inner and outer self-esteem is discussed wherein inner self-esteem is hypothesized to be an outcome of self-evaluations of performance in prominent role identities. Outer self-esteem is hypothesized to be related to self-evaluations of both prominent and nonprominent role identities. The research context is a comparison of the different processes facilitating self-esteem in innovative schools (emphasis on student-initiated activities and control) and traditional (emphasis on pre-determined curriculum and teacher-administrator control). Data across school type demonstrate a modest correlation between positive self-evaluations of performance in prominent role identities and both types of self-esteem. The data suggest that high evaluation of performance in nonprominent role identities is related to outer self-esteem but not to inner self-esteem. Further empirical clarification of the concepts was established by viewing the relationships within school type. In the innovative schools both types of self-esteem were predominantly related to positive evaluations of prominent role identities, whereas in the traditional schools both types of self-esteem were related to both performance in prominent and nonprominent role identities. Thus the theoretical distinction gained partial support while the process of gaining self-esteem was shown to be essentially different between alternate school structures. Controls for social desirability, race, sex, and father's occupation did not change these findings.     

Forecasting births in post-transition population: stochastic renewal with serially correlated fertility

Time series analysis of fertility can improve demographic forecasts. The optimal forecast and its variance for births to an age-structured population subject to serially correlated random fertility are developed. The general case in which the fertility process had arbitrary autoregressive structure is dealt with and then the 4 special cases of white noise, 1st-order autoregressive, 2nd-order autoregressive, and random walk are considered. Consequently, it is determined that the predictions and their variances are highly sensitive to the autoregressive structure of fertility and, therefore, if stochastic models are to be used for prediction, they must emphasize this aspect of the problem. Preliminary empirical efforts to model the time series of U.S. fertility from 1917 to 1972 proved unsuccessful, but it is obvious that at least a 2nd-order autoregressive scheme is require d. The analysis proveded should be helpful in: 1) any application of the procedures requires a successful parameterization of the fertility process; 2) fertility variations could be decomposed into the effects of nuptiality and marital fertility and then births and marriages could be jointly predicted; and 3) the simplifying approximations should be dropped and each age-specific rate could be analyzed and predicted.     

Contraceptive overlap with post-partum anovularity

Abstract Contraceptive use in the early post-partum months is, for the majority of women, without any direct protective value because, whilst not ovulating, they are not exposed to the risk of pregnancy. This does not, of course, imply that contraception should be delayed until signs of the resumption of ovulation appear, as for many women the first sign of such resumption is pregnancy. There are, besides, logistic and psychological reasons which make early post-partum contraception advisable. It does, however, demand that any calculation of the demographic effects of contraceptive use should make due allowance for this null period of use.