Using Automated Emergency Notification Systems to Inform the Public: A Field Experiment

Research and experience have shown that it can be difficult to get citizens to pay attention to risk messages and preparedness information in the absence of an actual emergency. As the use computerized systems that alert the public to hazards by automatically ringing their home phones increases, we thought it important to ask if tests of these "call down" systems can also be used to convey preemergency information. We worked with a local government to add instructions on how to shelter-in-place to the message on a routine test of a call down system. We then surveyed a test group and a control group before and after the test call and a second control group on after the call. The results indicate that the test call raised awareness of the emergency notification system without generating undue concern about the possibility of a chemical accident. Those who received the test call demonstrated significant improvements in their knowledge of how to shelter-in-place while no such improvement was observed in those who did not get the call. While the nature of the sample used in this study limits generalizability, we feel this outcome is positive enough to warrant further exploration of this method of disseminating risk information and preparedness instructions.     

Highways and Population Change*

Abstract In this paper we return to an issue often discussed in the literature regarding the relationship between highway expansion and population change. Typically it simply is assumed that this relationship is well established and understood. We argue, following a thorough review of the relevant literature, that the notion that highway expansion leads to increased population growth in the vicinity of the improved infrastructure finds only weak and often conflicting support. Using data on all major highway expansions in Wisconsin covering the period from the late‐1960s through the 1990s from the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT), and census data at the minor civil division (MCD) level covering the period 1970 to 2000, we deploy the analytical tools of geographic information system (GIS) software, and theory from the expanding literature in spatial analysis and modeling, to take a fresh look at this relationship. Our analysis reveals that there is a modest relationship between highway expansion and population growth among MCDs within 10–20 miles of the expanded major highway. The causal structure, however, is complex. Our starting hypothesis argues that population growth precedes highway expansion as frequently as population growth results from highway expansion, but the data show otherwise. The dominant causal influence appears to flow from highway expansion to population growth.     

Early Childhood Developmental and Nutritional Training for Foster Parents

This exploratory study examined the effectiveness of a foster parent nutrition training program. Conducted in collaboration between Woman, Infants and Children (WIC) and a state foster care licensing agency, the study involved providing an intensive training to 11 self-selected foster parents. The participants completed pre-tests and post-tests related to their level of knowledge and comfort in the area of infant nutritional needs. Paired t-tests detected significant differences before and after the intervention, with participants reporting improved knowledge and understanding. While the sample was small and voluntary, the authors feel these pilot results merit further attention in the areas of practice and research.     

Interval estimation for log-linear models with one variable subject to non-ignorable non-response

Summary.  Log-linear models for multiway contingency tables where one variable is subject to non-ignorable non-response will often yield boundary solutions, with the probability of non-respondents being classified in some cells of the table estimated as 0. The paper considers the effect of this non-standard behaviour on two methods of interval estimation based on the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. The first method relies on the estimator being approximately normally distributed with variance equal to the inverse of the information matrix. It is shown that the information matrix is singular for boundary solutions, but intervals can be calculated after a simple transformation. For the second method, based on the bootstrap, asymptotic results suggest that the coverage properties may be poor for boundary solutions. Both methods are compared with profile likelihood intervals in a simulation study based on data from the British General Election Panel Study. The results of this study indicate that all three methods perform poorly for a parameter of the non-response model, whereas they all perform well for a parameter of the margin model, irrespective of whether or not there is a boundary solution.     

Examining the Impact of Changes in Maternal Employment on High School Completion Among Low-Income Youth

The passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act and decisions about its re-authorization have resurrected interest in the impact of maternal employment on child outcomes in poor families. The emerging evidence suggests that employment stability among former welfare recipients is a key factor in making successful transitions from welfare to work. This investigation explores how changes in maternal employment in poor families relate to high school completion among at risk youths. Our findings show that a substantial number of mothers experience unstable employment patterns. This instability is positively correlated with dropout among adolescents. The paper concludes with policy implications for the next phase of welfare reform.     

A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

Neural Correlates of Human and Monkey Face Processing in 9‐Month‐Old Infants

Behavioral and electrophysiological evidence suggests a gradual, experience‐dependent specialization of cortical face processing systems that takes place largely in the 1st year of life. To further investigate these findings, event‐related potentials (ERPs) were collected from typically developing 9‐month‐old infants presented with pictures of familiar and unfamiliar monkey or human faces in 2 different orientations. Analyses revealed differential processing across changes in monkey and human faces. The N290 was greater for familiar compared to unfamiliar faces, regardless of species or orientation. In contrast, the P400 to unfamiliar faces was greater than to familiar faces, but only for the monkey condition. The P400 to human faces differentiated the orientation of both familiar and unfamiliar faces. These results suggest more specific processing of human compared to monkey faces in 9‐month‐olds.     

'Dealing With It': Experiences of Young Fathers in and Leaving Care

The interface between two major UK Government priorities—reducingunwanted teenage pregnancies and supporting teenage parents,and improving the health and well-being of young people in andleaving local authority care—has been the focus of recentresearch. The overall aims of this study were to explore factorscontributing to early pregnancy and parenthood among young peoplein and leaving local authority care; to determine the kindsof support available to these young people; and to identifywhat enables or prevents the delivery of the support they need.Via in-depth interviews, and in four contrasting geographicalareas, data were collected from young people and service providersacross England. This paper analyses data of relevance to theexperience of young fathers who have been looked after—toconsider how the needs of these young men might be better addressedthrough policy and practice. In-depth interviews conducted withyoung fathers and service providers highlighted three key aspectsof their experience that must be addressed if future needs areto be better provided for. These are: social exclusion, trustand more flexible forms of service provision. The implicationsof these issues for future policy and programme developmentare discussed.     

How close is too close?: The negative relationship between knowledge of HIV transmission routes and social distancing tendencies

Data measuring respondents’ knowledge of HIV's transmission routes was obtained via a statewide RDD sample of 603 Nevadans to determine if disease knowledge influences respondent efforts to socially and physically distance themselves from a hypothetical HIV-positive person. Four separate dependent variables (scenarios) are created in which the geographic distance between the respondent and a hypothetical HIV-positive person decreases; while, at the same time, physical personal contact, or potential for contact, increases. Findings show 84.2% of the respondents had sufficient knowledge of HIV transmission routes, and the majority felt comfortable across all four social scenarios. However, multiple logistic regression analyses indicate that respondents with sufficient knowledge of how HIV is transmitted are significantly more comfortable with casual social interactions than those respondents with insufficient knowledge. The results from this study confirm the importance of HIV-knowledge as a tool to combat AIDS-related stigma.