The Multiscale Importance of Road Segments in a Network Disruption Scenario: A Risk‐Based Approach

This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real‐world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities.     

Organizational cynicism: Spillover effects on supervisor–subordinate relationships and performance

Organizational cynicism has grown in contemporary Western organizations. However, its impact on interpersonal relationships and consequently on organizational functioning remains understudied. The present study addresses these gaps by: a) exploring the spillover effect of organizational cynicism on supervisor–subordinate relationships, and b) examining if the spillover effect extends to employee performance. Specifically, it examines if affective commitment to the supervisor mediates the relationship between the PSS × organizational cynicism interaction effect and performance (i.e., mediated-moderation). Data were collected from both employees and supervisors (N = 274) from 45 organizations. Our results generally support our hypotheses. This study provides evidence that organizational cynicism interferes in the relationship employees develop with their supervisors, with consequences to performance. This study opens new avenues for research on organizational cynicism and carries implications for theory and practice.     

School-level policies and the efficiency and equity trade-off in education

This paper identifies the relationship between pupils’ Family Background, their mathematics scores, and school-level policies, using the 2012 Programme of International Student Assessment for Italy and multilevel modelling. School-level policies have played a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries, but there is no straightforward empirical evidence for how they affect pupils’ outcomes and the equality of educational outcomes. Our findings show that that only some school policies intensify the Family Background Effect – (educational equity) and affect student outcomes (educational efficiency) simultaneously. We find that competitive schools are able to screen students by selecting higher socio-economic status parents, which mainly harms equity without having much effect on efficiency. There are some policies which allow some trade-off between aforementioned objectives, mainly policies related to management schools.     

Fast parallel $$\alpha $$-stable distribution function evaluation and parameter estimation using OpenCL in GPGPUs

\(\alpha \)-Stable distributions are a family of probability distributions found to be suitable to model many complex processes and phenomena in several research fields, such as medicine, physics, finance and networking, among others. However, the lack of closed expressions makes their evaluation analytically intractable, and alternative approaches are computationally expensive. Existing numerical programs are not fast enough for certain applications and do not make use of the parallel power of general purpose graphic processing units. In this paper, we develop novel parallel algorithms for the probability density function and cumulative distribution function—including a parallel Gauss–Kronrod quadrature—, quantile function, random number generator and maximum likelihood estimation of \(\alpha \)-stable distributions using OpenCL, achieving significant speedups and precision in all cases. Thanks to the use of OpenCL, we also evaluate the results of our library with different GPU architectures.     

Evidence-based practice: from medicine to social work

The last 10 years have witnessed an increasing interest in evidence-based practice in the field of medicine. The product of a time characterised by the explosion of information technology, a heightened sense of risk, and the enshrining of the principles of economy, effectiveness, transparency and consumerism, evidence-based practice has rapidly expanded from medicine to other fields, including social work. The new paradigm has generated not only great enthusiasm in many areas of the social work profession but also an intense debate about the transferability of the principles of evidence-based practice from medicine to a discipline that operates amidst particularly complex and multifaceted societal factors. Similarly, the concept of evidence upon which social work practice should be based has been the object of considerable discussion, though initial emphasis on results from randomised controlled trials seems to be gradually shifting towards broader approaches to defining evidence. Although organisational constraints and job pressures are likely to favour the use, among practitioners, of ‘preappraised’ resources, this should not prevent social workers from acquiring the skills and knowledge necessary to make independent and critical appraisal of evidence.     

Expert Judgment-Based Risk Assessment Using Statistical Scenario Analysis: A Case Study—Running the Bulls in Pamplona (Spain)

In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.     

Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?

The aim of this paper is to find an empirical connection between the striking increase in the use of fixed-term contracts in Spain and the observed delay in the age at marriage and maternity. Using the eight waves of individual information from the European Household Panel for Spain, we find that for men, the decision whether to get married is strongly negatively affected by holding unstable contracts or not working, relative to when an indefinite contract is held. However, for women, results suggest that holding fixed-term contracts is not a deterrent for the decision whether to get married. With respect to the decision of whether to enter into parenthood, results indicate that for all childless women, either with no partner, holding fixed-term contracts delays entry into motherhood relative to the holding of indefinite contracts. The discouragement effect is stronger for women with no partner, though.JEL classification: D1, J1     

Rurality Index for Small Areas in Spain

An operational definition for “rural area” is pivotal if proposals, policies and decisions aimed at optimising the distribution of resources, closing the gap on inequity between areas and raising standards of living for the least advantaged populations are to be put in place. The concept of rurality, however, is often based on alternative and conflicting definitions, requiring clarification of the underlying theoretical model. Traditionally a geographical area has been classified as rural by taking into account either the number of inhabitants or population density. Two kinds of problem are raised with this approach, however, namely: it is inherently difficult to describe such a complex concept as rurality with a single variable; and reducing the concept down to a rural/urban dichotomy by setting a non-universal cut-off point does not usually provide an accurate account of reality. Within the context of the rural–urban continuum, this paper has devised a rurality index for Spanish municipalities based on the 1991 Population, Housing and Household Survey. The index was built on a principal components factor analysis, giving rise to a single factor that is correlated to the aging of the population, economic dependency, farming, livestock or fishing-related employment, habitability of housing and population density. A score to each municipality was allocated. This index can be regularly updated thus enabling the progress of the concept of rurality to be monitored in our setting over time and then compared with other countries using the same methods.