About the contributors

This paper first maps the distribution of indigenous gambling in cultures around the world. On the basis of extensive ethnographic and historical evidence, it is concluded that gambling is not a universal phenomenon; prior to the era of European colonisation, non-gambling societies appear to have covered large areas of the globe. The pattern of gambling and non-gambling peoples and nations invites speculation and investigation. The second part of the paper reviews and critically discusses statistical cross-cultural studies that have aimed to uncover factors that promote or restrain the playing of games of chance and the practice of gambling. Some of these factors, which allow us to predict to a certain extent the presence and intensity of gambling in societies, are: the presence of commercially used money, social inequality, societal complexity, and the presence of certain kinds of competitive inter-tribal relations.     

The child welfare service's assessments in custody cases that involve minors

The percentage of breakdowns in marriages, cohabitations and civil partnerships is increasing in the Western world, resulting in questions of child custody. In Norway and other Western countries, there is little knowledge of the support system's work in child custody cases. This article focuses on the assessments Norwegian child welfare service employees conduct in 37 cases about child custody. We explain why they sometimes conduct investigations of reports and at other times do not.

‘Street-level bureaucracy’ is the theoretical reference framework for interpreting the interviews. Assessments and decisions of the child welfare service in custody cases vary from one service to another. It is relatively difficult to predict whether the notifications will be investigated or dropped. Decisions are the result of a jigsaw puzzle of risk assessment, interpretations of legislation, cooperative procedures and an understanding of the county social welfare board. Notifications concerning violence and notifications from family counselling offices stand out since generally they result in investigations.

Child welfare services' handling of notifications regarding custody questions is challenging as these cases are in the grey zone between the Children Act and the Child Welfare Act. Child welfare workers want clearer guidelines for the cases on which they are to work. However, new rules cannot replace the professional and ethical assessments the child welfare service workers have to make in each individual case.     

Does change process healthiness reduce the negative effects of organizational change on the psychosocial work environment?

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate whether the detrimental effects of organizational change on the psychosocial work environment are reduced by the “healthiness” of change processes. This includes the management's awareness that the change may be experienced differently by various individuals and groups (diversity); availability of the manager during the process; the degree to which conflicts are resolved constructively; and the degree to which the new roles to be taken on are clarified. Two studies are presented. Using a randomized sample of the Norwegian working population (N = 2389), the first study showed that there were both direct and indirect positive relationships between organizational change and stress, with job demands (but not control and support) as a mediator. In the second study a healthy change process index (HCPI) was developed from dimensions of healthy change that had emerged in an earlier qualitative study. Using data from seven Norwegian enterprises undergoing change (N = 561), this study showed that the healthiness of the change process was related negatively to stress and positively to Control and Support, but not to Demands. Overall, these findings support the idea that a healthy process may not reduce the additional demands produced by organizational change. However, a healthy process may still be able to reduce the experience of stress and facilitate coping with stress and associated increased demands through enhancing the psychosocial work environment.     

Multivariate survival mixed models for genetic analysis of longevity traits

A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented concentrates on longevity studies. The framework presented allows to combine models based on continuous time with models based on discrete time in a joint analysis. The continuous time models are approximations of the frailty model in which the baseline hazard function will be assumed to be piece-wise constant. The discrete time models used are multivariate variants of the discrete relative risk models. These models allow for regular parametric likelihood-based inference by exploring a coincidence of their likelihood functions and the likelihood functions of suitably defined multivariate generalized linear mixed models. The models include a dispersion parameter, which is essential for obtaining a decomposition of the variance of the trait of interest as a sum of parcels representing the additive genetic effects, environmental effects and unspecified sources of variability; as required in quantitative genetic applications. The methods presented are implemented in such a way that large and complex quantitative genetic data can be analyzed. Some key model control techniques are discussed in a supplementary online material.     

Event dependent sampling of recurrent events

The effect of event-dependent sampling of processes consisting of recurrent events is investigated when analyzing whether the risk of recurrence increases with event count. We study the situation where processes are selected for study if an event occurs in a certain selection interval. Motivation comes from psychiatric epidemiology where repeated hospital admissions are studied for patients with affective disease, as seen in Kessing et al. (Acta Psychiatr Scand 109:339–344, 2004b). For the selected processes, either only disease course from selection and onwards is used in the analysis, or, both retrospective and prospective disease course histories are used. We examine two methods to correct for the selection depending on which data are used in the analysis. In the first case, the conditional distribution of the process given the pre-selection history is determined. In the second case, an inverse-probability-of-selection weighting scheme is suggested. The ability of the methods to correct for the bias due to selection is investigated with simulations. Furthermore, the methods are applied to affective disease data from a register-based study (Kessing et al. Br J Psychiatry 185:372–377, 2004a) and from a long-term clinical study (Kessing et al. Acta Psychiatr Scand 109:339–344, 2004b).     

Inference for Multi‐dimensional High‐frequency Data with an Application to Conditional Independence Testing

We find the asymptotic distribution of the multi‐dimensional multi‐scale and kernel estimators for high‐frequency financial data with microstructure. Sampling times are allowed to be asynchronous and endogenous. In the process, we show that the classes of multi‐scale and kernel estimators for smoothing noise perturbation are asymptotically equivalent in the sense of having the same asymptotic distribution for corresponding kernel and weight functions. The theory leads to multi‐dimensional stable central limit theorems and feasible versions. Hence, they allow to draw statistical inference for a broad class of multivariate models, which paves the way to tests and confidence intervals in risk measurement for arbitrary portfolios composed of high‐frequently observed assets. As an application, we enhance the approach to construct a test for investigating hypotheses that correlated assets are independent conditional on a common factor.     

Non-parametric inference for the effect of a treatment on survival times with application in the health and social sciences

In this paper we perform inference on the effect of a treatment on survival times in studies where the treatment assignment is not randomized and the assignment time is not known in advance. Two such studies are discussed: a heart transplant program and a study of Swedish unemployed eligible for employment subsidy. We estimate survival functions on a treated and a control group which are made comparable through matching on observed covariates. The inference is performed by conditioning on waiting time to treatment, that is, time between the entrance in the study and treatment. This can be done only when sufficient data are available. In other cases, averaging over waiting times is a possibility, although the classical interpretation of the estimated survival functions is lost unless hazards are not functions of waiting time. To show unbiasedness and to obtain an estimator of the variance, we build on the potential outcome framework, which was introduced by J. Neyman in the context of randomized experiments, and adapted to observational studies by D.B. Rubin. Our approach does not make parametric or distributional assumptions. In particular, we do not assume proportionality of the hazards compared. Small sample performance of the estimator and a derived test of no treatment effect are studied in a Monte Carlo study.     

Gambling-related embezzlement in the workplace: a qualitative study

People with severe gambling problems typically first spend all their available money on gambling and then resort to borrowing, selling personal property and other ways of procuring more money for gambling. Some problem gamblers commit economic crimes. This investigation examined gambling-related embezzlement in the workplace, an aspect of problem gambling that may severely harm the gambler, significant others and the employer. The methods used are the study of newspaper articles and qualitative interviews with 18 informants, including professionals in workplace security and drug-use prevention, therapists specializing in problem gambling treatment, counsellors from mutual support societies, and recovered problem gamblers who had embezzled. Gambling-related embezzlement often progresses in a characteristic sequence shaped by specific processes in which the gambler’s thoughts and emotions interact systemically with the monetary losses caused by participating in commercial gambling and the opportunity to embezzle money in the workplace. In this study, criminological theory of white collar crime usefully complemented psychological theories of problem gambling. It is concluded that a processual perspective, in addition to consideration of psychological and environmental factors, is valuable for understanding the progression to severe problem gambling.     

Modelling excess mortality of the unemployed: choice of scale and extra-Poisson variability

"Occupational mortality and morbidity is usually studied via standardized mortality (or morbidity) ratios, with little attention to the basic fit of the implicit underlying proportional hazards model. This paper presents a case study on unemployment and mortality, based on the complete Danish male population aged 20-64 years at the 1970 census. The effect of unemployment on the age-specific mortality rate is intermediate between additive and multiplicative and was fitted well by an additive effect on the square root of the mortality. The paper discusses and illustrates whether finer stratification or random residual variation ('frailty') is to be preferred for obtaining a statistically satisfactory fit."     

Complexity and Hybrid Public Administration—Theoretical and Empirical Challenges

This article provides a greater understanding of hybrid public administration. Different generations of public sector reforms have accentuated hybrid and complex features of public organizations, resulting in multiple-layer structural and cultural features. The article covers the following research questions: 1) how can we interpret the increasing tendency towards hybrid administration in terms of a transformative approach; 2) how is hybrid administration developing out of attempts to balance NPM and post-NPM?; and 3) how can we understand the major mechanisms producing hybridity in a modern reform? The case we focus on is the reform of the Norwegian welfare administration.