Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities

We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.     

Physical activity in the life of a woman with cerebral palsy: physiotherapy,social exclusion,competence, and intimacy

Although physical activity can have substantial mental and physical health benefits, people with cerebral palsy usually lead sedentary lives. To understand, at an individual level, this inactivity, we interviewed a 29-year-old minimally active woman with cerebral palsy (Alana) about the meanings and experiences of physical activity throughout her life. Using a case-study approach, we found that Alana had adverse childhood experiences with physical activity, including: having to perform difficult, and sometimes painful, physiotherapy; wearing callipers to assist her walking; demonstrating limited competence at physical activity; being excluded from physical education and other organised physical activity at school; and feeling socially isolated from her classmates. These experiences seemed to contribute to feelings of difference/inferiority and the subsequent avoidance of physical activity, which, in turn, might have contributed to premature functional decline. Physical activity levels in people with cerebral palsy might be increased through focusing on enhancing childhood experiences.     

Responsibility in Home–School Relations — Finnish Parents' Views

Finnish parents' views on responsibility in the home–school relations were explored. Responsibility was here understood as responsibility over education and upbringing. The data consist of semi‐structured interviews with 24 mothers and four fathers. In the home–school discourses, parents and teachers were often referred to as partners, and active parental involvement in school life was seen as a key to children's success. However, in some discourses teachers and parents were seen as polar opposites, e.g. teachers as experts — parents as laymen. Few references were made to children's responsibility.     

Social Class,Economic Inequality,and the Convergence of Policy Preferences: Evidence from 24 Modern Democracies

Using data from the World Values Survey and national‐level indicators for 24 modern democracies, we assess the influence of social class and economic inequality on preferences for government responsibility. We improve on previous research by using multilevel models that account for differences in attitudes both within (i.e., over time) and across countries. Our findings are consistent with the economic self‐interest hypothesis. Specifically, working class individuals, who tend to gain the most from government intervention because of their low and often more precarious economic position, are more likely than others to support government intervention. We also find a positive relationship between national‐level income inequality and support for government intervention. As income inequality rises, its social ills tend to be more pervasive, resulting in public opinion becoming more supportive of governments taking responsibility for their citizens. We further demonstrate that inequality moderates the relationship between social class and attitudes. Although the effect of income inequality is positive for all social classes, attitudes across social classes become more similar as inequality rises. Utilisant les données de World Values Survey et indicateurs de niveau national, nous évaluons l'influence de la classe sociale et l'inégalité économique sur les préférences en matière de responsabilité du gouvernement dans 24 démocraties modernes. Notre analyse se améliore sur la recherche précédente en utilisant des modèles à plusieurs niveaux qui tiennent compte des différences dans les attitudes au sein (ce est à dire, au fil du temps) et entre les pays. Nos résultats sont cohérents avec l'hypothèse d'auto‐ intérêt économique. Par exemple, les travailleurs ‐ qui ont tendance à bénéficier plus quand le gouvernement intervient dans l’économie en raison de leurs faibles revenus et souvent position plus précaire ‐ sont plus susceptibles que d'autres à un soutien responsabilité du gouvernement. Nous constatons également une relation positive entre l'inégalité des revenus au niveau national et le soutien à l'intervention du gouvernement. Comme l'inégalité des revenus se élève—et ses maux sociaux ont tendance à être plus répandue—l'opinion publique devient plus favorable des gouvernements assument la responsabilité de citoyens. Tout aussi important, cependant, nous démontrons également que la relation entre la social classe et les préférences pour la responsabilisation du gouvernement diffèrent par la quantité de l'inégalité des revenus dans un pays. Bien que l'effet de l'inégalité des revenus est positif pour toutes les classes sociales, les différences dans les attitudes de la classes sociale convergent que l'inégalité augmente.     

Early retirement differences between Denmark and The Netherlands: A cross-national comparison of push and pull factors in two small European welfare states

The goal of this study is to give a comprehensive empirical account of push and pull factors, situated at various societal levels, which may influence people's early retirement. Factors in two contrasting European countries have been analysed and compared: Denmark, where the rate of early exit/retirement is relatively low, and The Netherlands, where this rate is relatively high. Our analysis, looking into possible explanations for the difference in rates, includes factors that operate at the macro or institutional level of the labour market and the social security system, at the meso level of firms and companies, and at the micro level of individual workers. In addition, we not only look into the effects of structural, objective factors, which impacts are usually analysed from an incentive perspective, but also into the effects of cultural factors, i.e. of preferences, attitudes and values. Cultural factors related to early exit have not been the object of much international comparison thus far, although their possible significance is readily acknowledged. The differences in retirement behaviour in Denmark and The Netherlands are explained by the fact that Danish workers, at all three levels, are less experiencing structural and cultural factors pushing them out of the labour market, as well as experiencing factors pulling them into retirement, compared to workers in The Netherlands.     

Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration

In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The estimators are briefly introduced and compared, and the criteria adopted for measuring finite sample performance are bias and root mean squared error. Most importantly, the simulations reveal that (1) the frequency domain maximum likelihood procedure is superior to the time domain parametric methods, (2) all the estimators are fairly robust to conditionally heteroscedastic errors, (3) the local polynomial Whittle and bias-reduced log-periodogram regression estimators are shown to be more robust to short-run dynamics than other semiparametric (frequency domain and wavelet) estimators and in some cases even outperform the time domain parametric methods, and (4) without sufficient trimming of scales the wavelet-based estimators are heavily biased.     

Organized Environmentalists: Democracy as a Key Value?

This article, taking as its point of departure that voluntary organizations are of crucial importance in a democracy, views the transformation of the Norwegian voluntary sector through the lenses of what happens within the environmental field. Seeing changes within this field as prototypical for the transformation of the voluntary sector more generally, we start with the organizational level and contrast old versus new environmental organizations. The aim is to ascertain to what extent the newly built organizations are leaving the historically important democratic organizational model. Second, we compare attitudes toward democracy of members of the democratically and nondemocratically built organizations: attitudes both toward democracy within a voluntary organization (internal) and democracy in society (external). Furthermore, we compare these findings with what we find for the population at large. The last section analyzes demographic characteristics of organized environmentalists to see whether a new type of elite, more distanced from the population at large, is emerging in the new and nondemocratically built organizations. The study finds that new organizations are definitely breaking with the democratic organizational model. The support for democracy (internal and external) is comprehensive but not always overwhelming, and there is a tendency in the direction of congruence between organizational structure and individual attitudes. That is, members of democratically built organizations especially value internal but also to some extent external democracy more than members of nondemocratically built organizations. However, even if formal democratic structure and democracy as an absolute and generalized value seems to be under pressure, it does not follow that a new type of elitism is emerging.