The developmental implications of migration from and between small island nations

This article discusses the role of migration in relieving population pressures, thus making continuing development possible, using small nations in the Caribbean and the South Pacific as examples. The Caribbean islands and many Pacific islands have used out-migration to ease population pressures in this century. Surplus labor has been emerging in various Caribbean nations, independent of the international marketing problems of plantation agriculture. Rural populations alienated from plantations have had to make do on questionable and/or remote land. Population surpluses appear to originate in rural areas, but little evidence exists to suggest that those surpluses are the basis for the emigration patterns of the Caribbean islands. Emigration does not solve population problems because when ambitious, skilled workers leave their country, their actions have little to do with the existence of domestic surplus labor and their leaving may do little to facilitate domestic labor absorption. Thus, if mini-states wish to sustain their hopes of economic expansion, they must find the means to employ their surplus labor. Since mainly skilled migrants leave, their going may actually slow development and retard opportunities for labor absorption. Population movements internal to the Caribbean region may further complicate surplus labor and/or population problems. If protective entry requirements impede normal inter-island relations, they may interfere with developmental processes. In general, migration is not a feasible strategy for population control for small island nations. While temporary migration has a more positive impact than other forms of migration, problems do exist. For example, temporary migration 1) can impose significant economic costs on the source-country, and 2) may result in the source country being unable to capitalize on its initial investment in training and education of temporary migrants. In conclusion, import substitution through cooperation between small island nations, production for export where feasible, and more attention to more sophisticated international service linkages hold a better prospect for material progress than relying on the export of surplus populations.     

Compulsive gambling and the medical model

The medical model as a conceptual and operative approach to compulsive gambling is discussed. The terms medical model and disease are defined and the practical implications of their application to compulsive gambling are explored. Special attention is given to the addictive disease concept. Finally, a variety of objections to the medical model are described, but it is concluded that the many individual and social advantages of the medical model make it the preferred conceptualization at our present state of knowledge.     

Evidence for a common dissociative-like reaction among addicts

A questionnaire was designed to test selected aspects of the author's General Theory of Addictions (Jacobs, 1982). Data were collected from groups of compulsive gamblers, alcoholics, and compulsive overeaters, and compared with the responses to the same questionnaire obtained from normative samples of adolescents and adults. The more inclusive term, compulsive gambler, has been used throughout, since the sample of gamblers in this study included an inpatient subgroup who had been diagnosed as pathological gamblers, as well as a subgroup of Gamblers Anonymous members who had not been clinically evaluated. Findings support the author's theoretical position that, when indulging, different kinds of addicts will tend to share a common set of dissociativelike experiences that differentiate them from nonaddicts. This has been termed a state of altered identity.     

Interpreting demographic effects in duration analyses of first birth intervals

Estimated demographic effects in proportional hazard models of first birth intervals could reflect time-invariant differences in the risk of a birth, or differences in the timing of a shift in the risk, or both. This paper attempts to distinguish between these possibilities. The procedure is to estimate a more general model than the proportional hazard specification, in which the evolution of the risk of a birth can differ with demographic characteristics. The proportional hazard specification is nested within this more general model. Consequently, the consistency of the data with the risk or the timing interpretation of demographic effects can be tested. The data studied do not lead to a rejection of the proportional hazard specification.Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. The initial stage of this research was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship. I have benefited from insightful comments from David Bloom, Andrew Foster, Zvi Griliches, V. Joseph Hotz, Duncan Thomas, anonymous referees, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania, and in the Economic Demography sessions of the 1988 Population Association of America annual meetings. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Elective single mothers and their children: The missing fathers

Elective single mothers are adult, unmarried women who intentionally become mothers. This study utilized longitudinal data about 17 Caucasian, elective single mothers and their children to identify fathers' roles in these families, and to understand children's views of their fathers. These single mothers and their children resided for the first six years of the children's lives in father-absent households. By age six, most of the children had ghost fathers, whom they had never met or knew little about. The data suggest that the father often becomes a family secret, and that children may blame themselves for their fathers' absence.     

Demography and ageing -- a truism highlighted

Since the aging of populations, with its extensive consequences, requires ample planning, demography is the soothsayer of gerontology. The realization that aging is the main demographic event of this century has generated an interdependence among demography, gerontology, and geriatrics, and created a base from which to extrapolate socio-political consequences from population changes. Demography transforms the personal unidimensional experience of aging to a dynamic one which traverses time and geography. Chronological age is not an exclusive criterion; this presents an opportunity to explore avenues grounded in the realms of economics, politics, policy, and culture. The inclusion of demography in international training courses of the International Institute on Aging (United Nations-Malta) has made possible an easier progression toward discussing policy, planning, funding, and social services within a broader context. The dependency of aging upon demography established the collaborative development between the Committee for International Cooperation in National Research in Demography (CICRED) and INIA and the joint hosting of a synthesis meeting on Population Ageing Research Project. In this collection of papers, Don Rowland creates the concept of the Gerontological Transition which interprets aging as a process of cohort flow; Raul Hernandez, through an evaluation of regional data, provides a classic analysis of changing age ratios within the population as a whole; Anthony Warnes, through use of mortality rates, provides a demographic analysis to expose the age-dependent variability in health and welfare payments; Paul Paillat transposes demographic numbers into social consequences; Miroslav Macura focuses on the youth in these population shifts; and the emerging elderly in the never ending cycle of events are viewed. Planning beyond the individual lifetime will become a necessity for mankind.     

Sucker bet or sure thing: A critical analysis of sports lotteries

A paradox currently exists regarding legal sports gambling in North America: various forms are flourishing in Nevada, Oregon, and several Canadian provinces, while at the same time the United States Congress is conducting hearings on two bills that would prohibit any new state-sponsored sports gambling initiatives. This study examines the issue of why some jurisdictions are enthusiastic about legal sports gambling while others strongly resist the concept. In reviewing these divergent viewpoints, a case study of the newfledged Canadian Sport Select gambling format is presented. This example is used to highly the perils and payoffs of a typical state-sponsored sports gambling scheme, with a view toward broadening our understanding of how they work and how they might be fairer to the public.     

Multistate life-tables and regression models

"A survey is given of the use of modern statistical techniques in event history analysis, and in particular in the study of multi-state life-tables in demography. Emphasis is placed on the interplay between partial likelihood and nonparametric maximum likelihood based methods, a) when analysing semi-Markov models or models with repeated spells, and b) in frailty models for unobservable heterogeneity."     

Data collection: are social workers reliable?

Social workers are required to collect a considerable amount of personal information about clients and their families which may be unrelated to direct clinical work. Administrators often use this for the purpose of payment, service documentation, agency planning, and accountability. The worker's concern about the appropriateness of collecting this data may result in poor compliance or even falsification of information. In a survey of Minnesota social workers, noncompliance with data collection requirements was substantial. The authors also found a significant degree of conflict about privacy and confidentiality issues. These findings suggest a basis of concern for those who must rely on accurate data for administrative planning.