The Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariables

In this paper the Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariates is introduced. Its strong consistency is established under mild conditions. Several applications of the estimator are discussed.     

Expanded renal transplantation: a competing risk model approach

Multi-state models (MSMs) are useful to analyze survival data when, besides the event of main interest, one or more intermediate states of the individual are identified. These models take the several existing states and the possible transitions among them into account. At the same time, covariate effects on each transition intensity may be investigated separately and, therefore, MSMs are more flexible than the standard Cox proportional hazards model. In this work, we use MSMs to investigate the impact of the quality of a transplanted kidney for a group of patients at the Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias. Specifically, we use an illness-death model to study the evolution of patients with kidney disease who received a renal transplant after a dialysis period. The intermediate state is defined as the failure of the received organ, while the terminating state is the death of the patient. In order to increase the potential number of organs available for transplant, the standards of quality for the transplanted kidneys were relaxed (the new criteria are labeled expanded criteria), and these ‘expanded kidneys’ were transplanted in appropriate candidates (older patients, with higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus). Results suggest that the expanded kidneys have a minor effect on survival, while both the kidney mortality and the risk of death increase with the patient's age and the serum creatinine and serum hemoglobin levels.     

Time to Diagnosis: Accounting for Differential Endpoint Follow-up in Multi-Cohort Studies

Cox regression is widely used to analyze discrete survival time data. Differential endpoint follow-up across sub-cohorts where distribution of a covariate varies may cause typical estimators to be biased or inefficient. We demonstrate that with Cardiovascular Health Study data for incident type 2 diabetes. Two cohorts with extremely different race distribution have differential follow-up for fasting glucose levels. We study various scenarios of Cox regression. We suggest an alternative approach, Poisson generalized estimating equations with an offset to accommodate the differential follow-up. We use simulations to contrast the methods.     

The Early Medieval State: A Strategic-Relational Approach

The state is a contested concept in the historiography on early medieval societies. Debates have frequently revolved around its heuristic validity, but few scholars have addressed its broader theoretical implications. Those who have tend to reduce the state to its institutional features and privilege the role of the dominant groups in the analysis of state-building processes and the workings of the state. This paper contends that a richer conceptualisation of the state can overcome the limits of the debate as it has been framed so far and provide a deeper insight into how social relations shaped and were shaped by the development of early medieval polities. After reviewing the most significant historiographical contributions to the debate, the paper introduces the Strategic-Relational Approach to the state, as formulated by B. Jessop, as one that can provide a more nuanced understanding of early medieval polities. Particular emphasis is made on the analysis of class relationships and the articulation of hegemonic projects as two particularly fruitful lines of inquiry. Finally, the paper focuses on one particular instance of early medieval political practice, the politics of the land, as a means to illustrate the potential of the approach.     

基于VAR模型的安徽省粮食产量影响因素的实证研究

自然条件、政策环境、经济因素、技术进步等因素都会影响粮食产量。选取安徽省1990-2012年影响粮食生产的7个因素,最初,使用前向逐步回归分析的方法研究发现,对粮食产量影响较大的因素有粮食成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量3个变量。其次,Johansen协整检验阐释了这3个变量与粮食总产量之间的关系,并构造脉冲响应函数及进行方差分解得出这3个变量对总产量的贡献度为：粮食成灾面积〉化肥施用量〉有效灌溉面积。所以,增强农业工程的防灾减灾效果,提升农田水利基础设施的使用效率,科学控制化肥施用量对提高安徽省粮食综合生产能力具有重大作用。     

NEGATIVE PUBLICITY AND CATHOLIC SCHOOLS

Between 1990 and 2007, the number of Catholic schools in the United States decreased by 14% and enrollment diminished by 7%. We generate two measures of publicity of sexual abuse at the diocesan level—public disclosure and news coverage. Dioceses with higher rates of negative publicity had a larger decline in both the number of Catholic schools and overall Catholic school enrollment. We estimate that publicity arising from sexual offenders within the Church explains 5% of the decline in the availability of Catholic schooling. (JEL I21, H52, H44)     

Likelihood Inference for Unions of Interacting Discs

Abstract. This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ‐grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analysing Peter Diggle's heather data set, where we discuss the results of simulation‐based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models.     

Gambling in Western and Eastern Europe: The Example of Hungary

The history of gambling in post-socialist countries is noticeably different from that of other countries in Europe. The goal of this study was therefore twofold: Firstly, to systematically review all European epidemiological studies related to excessive gambling in the general adult population, and secondly, to provide an overview of the state of gambling in Hungary based on the first ever nationwide representative survey, setting the results against the backdrop of the earlier European studies. A systematic review was carried out of European gambling studies which focus on a representative adult general population. Hungarian data was obtained from the National Survey on Addiction Problems in Hungary general adult population survey (N = 2,710). Pathological gambling was measured by the South Oaks Gambling Screen. Lifetime prevalence of excessive gambling (problem and pathological gambling) in the general adult population of European countries varies between 1.1% (Italy and Spain) and 6.5% (Estonia). In Hungary, the prevalence of problem gambling is 1.9%, with pathological gambling at 1.4%. The socio-demographic characteristics of the results are similar to those of other European countries. Using epidemiological data from the general adult populations of two post-socialist nations, it was possible to compare the results with data from 12 other European countries. Based on the data available, the extremely rapid liberation of the gambling market in the post-socialist countries has led to a similarly swift escalation in associated gambling problems.     

论辅导员博客在新时期学生工作中的作用

博客是辅导员开展学生工作的有效方式之一。高校扩招,弹性学制与学分制,价值观和文化多元化的态势等教育对象与教育环境的变化是辅导员博客产生的原因。辅导员在实际工作中运用博客有利于把握学生思想动态,增进师生交流;有利于提高班级管理效率,增强思想政治教育的实效性;有利于同行之间交流学习,促进辅导员成长;有利于辅导员非权力性影响力的提升。辅导员博客要明确主题,把握博客更新速度;选择优势网站,加大博客宣传;丰富内容,提高博文质量;建立评估机制,发挥教育合力。