Preventive planning for disasters

The authors have analysed the available data on disaster occurence and conclude that disasters are on the increase, especially in underdeveloped countries. They argue that a new approach to disaster is needed, one which emphasizes the continuing man-environment relationship. Within this approach, planning to prevent disaster should concentrate on long-term precautionary planning integrated into development planning utilizing, as far as possible, local awareness of the disaster problem. This long-term approach to disaster planning is a more effective way of offsetting disaster than a heavy emphasis on each individual disaster event and the relief measures which accompany it.     

Estimation for a four parameter generalized extreme value distribution

Estimation is considered for a class of models which are simple extensions of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, suitable for introducing time dependence into models which are otherwise only spatially dependent. Maximum likelihood estimation and the method of probability weighted moment estimation are identified as most useful for fitting these models. The relative merits of these methods, and others, is discussed in the context of estimation for the GEV distribution, with particular reference to the non - regularity of the GEV distribution for particular parameter values. In the case of maximum likelihood estimation, first and second derivatives of the log likelihood are evaluated for the models.     

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

Population Research and Policy Review - Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major...     

Reforming Professional Training and Protecting Vulnerable Adults from Abuse: A Thematic Analysis of the New Social Work Degree's Prescribed Curriculum

Correspondence to Phil Slater, School of Health and Social Sciences, Middlesex University, Queensway, Enfield EN3 4SF, UK. E-mail: p.slater{at}mdx.ac.uk Summary This paper analyses the Prescribed Curriculum of the new Degreein Social Work in relation to the Department of Health themeof ‘protecting vulnerable adults from abuse’. Areview of post-war social policy first establishes the significanceof these terms, both individually and in varying combinations.Subsequently, the phrase as a whole provides the focus for acontent analysis of the three constituents of the PrescribedCurriculum, namely, the Secretary of State’s Requirementsfor Social Work Training, the employment-focussed National OccupationalStandards for Social Work, and the academically oriented BenchmarkStatement for Social Work. With the exception of ‘abuse’,the key terms are all registered, albeit unevenly. This presenceis subsequently enhanced via strategic considerations of ‘logicalimportance’ and ‘organising rubrics’. Finally,terminological variants of ‘abuse’ are traced, withparticular regard to the emerging language of ‘rights’.     

(T)races of terrorism beyond ports of entry: a retrospective assessment of the limits of profiling in the regulation of airport passenger traffic during the 2010 FIFA World Cup

A critical function of post‐9/11 surveillance worldwide was to manage the ‘terrorist’ spectacle in public spaces such as airports and stadia. With the prospect of the 2010 World Cup looming large, aviation security in South Africa had accordingly gained significance in proportion to the expansion of airports and construction of stadium infrastructure countrywide. Private sector and government intentions to defend and consolidate the developmental spinoffs of expansion and infrastructure construction were expected and, with this, real and perceived threats from both ‘terrorists’ and banned football hooligans from Europe seem to demand surveillance based on racial profiling. The resultant profile picture of surveillance, this paper argues, is in monochrome: black terrorists and white yobs. Mobilising Deleuze and Guattari's theoretical work on deterritorialisation – based on the destabilisation of traditional concepts of territory – aviation ports of entry are seen to transmogrify into points of entry into the public discourse of the Arabic‐African militant, on the one hand, and the English‐European yob menace, on the other. In the final analysis, surveillance discourse moves beyond the confines of the airport and enters the public domain as it conflates the political (militant) and the social (menace) in a single, profiled, ossified narrative of ‘race’.