Approximation spline de la prevision d'un processus fonctionnel autorégressif d'ordre 1

ABSTRACT We present a method to approximate and forecast, on an entire interval, a continuous-time process. For this purpose, we use the modelization of ARH(l) processes, defined by Bosq (1991). We deal with the practical problem of the discretization of the observed trajectories and approximate them by means of spline functions. We show by simulations that for well-chosen smoothing parameters, good prediction can be obtained in comparison with the “predictable” part of the process. Finally, we apply this model to forecast road traffic and compare it with a SARIMA model.     

La victime et le policier : point de vue profane et point de vue professionnel sur la délinquance

Comparing surveys of victims with police statistics illustrates the differences between lay and professional views of crime. Victims’expectations and the police handling of cases do not always match. The determinants of victims’ decisions to report incidents to the police are briefly summarised; and the ways the police classify victims’account and handle their complaints, examined. This analysis is based on two sets of data: a victimisation survey of a sample of 10?504 persons aged 15 and older, drawn from the Île-de-France Region; the police statistics corresponding to the same area.     

The interaction of aging and 10 years of racing on ultraendurance running performance

The aim of this study was to examine the interaction between aging and 10 years of racing in endurance runners. Race-time data from 194 runners who had completed 10 consecutive 56-km ultramarathons were obtained. The runners were either 20.5 +/- 0.7, 30.0 +/- 1.0, 39.9 +/- 0.9, or 49.4 +/- 1.0 years old at their first race. Each runner's race speed was determined for each race over the 10 years. Data were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA, one-way ANOVA, and independent t tests and showed that performance improved and declined at greater rates for younger runners; younger runners had a greater capacity for improvement than older runners; approximately 4 years were required to reach peak racing speed, regardless of age; it was not possible to compete at peak speed for more than a few years; and the combined effects of 10 years of aging and racing neither improve nor worsen net performance. In conclusion, these data suggest that although these runners showed similar patterns of change in race speed over a 10-year period, the extent of change in performance was greater in younger than in older runners.     

How Therapeutic Intervention Does Create the Prerequisites of Change in Human Relations

The purpose of this paper is to stress our belief that therapeutic intervention does not have the power to create durable, predetermined changes in human systems. Still, a number of therapists seem to feel that certain adjustments are necessary if improvement is to occur and try to convince families to adopt them. Such partial moves ignore the question of what has prevented the family from discovering such beneficial adaptations on its own.
We suggest that the basic rules of the family prohibit it from changing. Tb stimulate the inherent healing capacities of human systems, a preferable goal might be to validate the present functioning of the family through an understanding of the different levels of its self perception (phenomenological model, mythical model). If this is done effectively, a possible reformulation of the relationship is truly facilitated. Relations between the participants will continue, but will no longer be what they were before. The effectiveness of the intervention is confirmed by the appearance of new beliefs, new perceptions. Any behavioral modifications shown by family members are logical consequences of their new conception of the relationship, not the causes of it.     

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity – which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common-method variance, and measurement error – renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation could be confounded; these methods include fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66% and up to 90% of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.     

“A Second-Chance at Being a Parent”: Grandparent Caregivers’ Reported Communication and Parenting Practices with Co-Residential Grandchildren

ABSTRACT

Grandfamilies, family structures in which grandparent(s) co-reside with and assume a primary caregiving role for at least one grandchild, are increasingly common in the United States. This qualitative, exploratory study, informed by family communication patterns theory (FCPT), illuminated the reported communication beliefs and practices of grandparents who serve as primary caregiver to at least one grandchild. Hybrid thematic analysis, combining FCTP with inductive analysis, was used to analyze 21 semi-structured interviews with grandparents. Results yielded four themes describing grandparents’ reported communicative practices: creating opportunities for listening and dialogue, talking about emotion, emphasizing openness, and allowing questioning; and three themes describing the impact of second-chance parenting: increased resources, acquired wisdom, and matured emotionally. Implications for grandfamily communication research in light of hybrid analyses and FCPT are discussed.     

Circular economy and the city: an urban political economy agenda

ABSTRACT

The circular economy (CE) has become a matter of urban development. A literature review shows that the CE debate is biased toward technology-driven industrial change, while bracketing broader socio-political interests. We address this gap by exploring the political economy of scale of the CE. Looking into the case of Brussels (Belgium), a city that has recently adopted the CE as part of its socio-economic strategy, we explore how the anticipated transition to a ‘circular city’ chimes with long-standing urban development agendas. While there is little evidence of stable growth coalitions between corporate and political elites, we argue that the CE provides an ‘urban sustainability fix’ by selectively incorporating ecological goals in urban governance strategies. We further scrutinise the landscape of diverse and heterogenous CE practices in food and transport, highlighting how they are regulated and organised, what labour conditions they offer, and how they are anchored in urban space.     

Making freedom work: the long transition from slavery to freedom during the Haitian Revolution

The 1791 slave revolt in Saint-Domingue (Haiti) and the first French abolition of slavery in 1793–1794 are generally seen as epochal events that redefined labor relations in the French Caribbean. But a close analysis of the labor codes promulgated during and after the Haitian Revolution indicates that elites were eager to reconcile the ideal of universal freedom with the needs of plantation agriculture, resulting in a succession of oppressive labor systems that subsisted until the 1820s.