人口变动对气候变化的影响

人口与气候变化关系是一个非常缺乏研究的领域。本文总结近年有关人口变动对气候变化影响研究领域的状况,讨论不同研究方法和模型的应用成果及其局限性,特别介绍了应用整合评估模型iPETS对主要国家和地区温室气体排放预测结果,指出人口变动与经济发展、技术变动等都是人类影响气候变化的决定因素;人口变动的影响不只是人口规模的增减,人口和家庭户结构及其空间分布的变化也是应该考虑的内容;家庭户应该成为气候变化研究的人口分析单位;人口老化、城市化、家庭规模缩小等都是影响未来气候变化的重要人口因素。本研究提供了改进气候预测模型对人口变量处理方式的实例,指出了在制定减缓气候变化政策过程中考虑人口因素的重要性和可操作建议。     

均衡城镇化:大都市与中小城市协调共进

城镇化是扩大内需实现中国经济可持续发展的大战略。文章分析了当前中国城镇化发展的战略背景,研究了城镇化发展面临的战略机遇和存在的失衡状况,提出稳步推进城镇化的关键是实施均衡城镇化战略,走大都市与中小城市协调发展的道路。未来不仅要发挥大都市圈的集聚效应和规模效应,也要重视在都市圈以外地区发展中小城市和县城,积极推进农村城镇化。同时要引导劳动力和产业向中西部的回归与转移,促进区域协调发展。     

The working poor

Although 60% of low-income Canadians derive the greatest part of their income from work, there is very little published material on the characteristics of these working poor individuals and families. Drawing on Statistics Canada's Survey of Consumer Finances, 1974 (Economic Families; microdata tape), this study is an initial attempt to fill this information gap. The working poor are defined as those economic families which meet three criteria: (a) no member is aged 65 or over; (b) total family income is below Statistics Canada's revised low-income cut-off; (c) more than 50% of total family income is derived from wages and salaries or from self-employment. The study presents and analyzes a variety of demographic and income data on the working poor; it also compares the working poor both with the poor who do not work and with Canadians who are not poor.     

Communique of the National Sample Survey of Fertility and Birth Control (abstract)

The State Family Planning Commission in China surveyed 2,151,212 people, including 459,269 married women aged 15-57 on fertility and birth control, in July, 1988 from 30 provinces and other regions. From 1980- 87 the average total fertility rate was 2.47 vs. 4.01 in the 1970s. Fertility rates in the 80s were 1.33 for cities, 2.43 for towns, and 2.84 for villages. 1st parity births rose from 44.15% to 52.55% from Jan. to July of 1988 and 2nd parity births were about 30%. Women aged 50-57 had an average of 5.27 children while women aged 45-59 had an average of 4.44 children. 71.21% of childbearing-age women use contraception: 10.99% use male sterilization, 38.24% use female sterilization, 41.48% use IUDs, 4.91% oral pills, 2.65% condoms, 0.42% external contraceptives, and 1.32% use other methods. 13.79% of the married, childbearing-age couples have one-child certificates. The population of China as of April 1989 was 1.1 billion. In 1988 the birth rate was 20.78/1000 and the death rate was 6.58/1000.     

Bulletin of major figures from manual tabulation of the national sample survey on fertility and birth control of China

The State Council, the State Family Planning Commission, the State Statistical Bureau, the State Planning Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Public Security of China together carried out a national sample survey on fertility and birth control in China in 1988. The survey was carried out in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The Tibetan Autonomous Region and the Hainan Province were surveyed for the 1st time, but the results from Tibet were not collected in time for this publication. The main respondents were the married women at age 15-57, with 2,114,591 people surveyed and a sampling proportion of 1.98/1000. This article describes the survey and its results according to birth rate, parity composition, and rural-urban fertility differences. Birth rates, mortality rates, and natural increase rates from high to low orders were tabulated for: urban areas, farms, towns, rural townships, and suburban townships. With the first 1/2 of 1988 birth rates tabulated, it was estimated that the total number of births in China will be less than in 1987. In 1987, the rate of 3rd or higher parity birth was below 5% in 6 provinces and municipalities, but 10 provinces and autonomous regions were over 20%. Fertility rates showed considerable disparity depending on the locational demographics (e.g. birth rates in urban areas were 14.3/1000 yet birth rates were 24.3/1000 in suburban townships).     

海南少数民族地区文化与民族教育

本文论述海南少数民族地区文化之特性、功能与价值 ,以及它与民族教育的关系。     

西部地区人口与计划生育工作的两颗明星——对贵州和甘肃人口计生工作跨越式发展的调研报告

20世纪90年代,贵州和甘肃两省的人口计生工作处于被动局面,属于全国的后进地区,人口问题日益成为制约两省经济社会发展的瓶颈."十五"期间,贵州、甘肃两省奋起直追,实现了人口计生工作的跨越式发展,成为新阶段西部地区人口计生工作的"两颗明星".2006年3月～8月,国家人口计生委组成调研组,分赴贵州、甘肃两省进行实地调研,对两省的人口计生工作进行了深入研究.现将有关情况总结如下:     

海南少数民族地区科技与民族教育

本文论述海南少数民族地区科技对经济社会发展的重大现实意义 ;海南少数民族地区的科技教育与民族教育状况 ,并指出在海南少数民族地区振兴经济、推动社会进步 ,必须加速走科技与教育协同发展的道路。     

中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?

1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降     

简述髋部肌群在短跑中的重要作用

着重从理论与实践上阐述髋部肌在短跑中的重要作用,指出为了提高短跑水平,必须重视髋部肌群的力量训练。