Structuring composite local governance indicators

The importance of good governance is praised by many academics and practitioners. The prominence of the subject suggests that measurement is important. However, setting out to measure the quality of governance empirically is controversial. Doubts regarding the feasibility and meaningfulness of this undertaking are widespread in the literature. Recognizing the potential caveats, the current article discusses a set of guidelines for structuring a theoretically sound local governance assessment tool based on the Decision Analysis and Operational Research literatures. The authors argue that using a multi-criteria model which employs several objective (quantitative and qualitative) indicators and relies on a participatory method to aggregate them is a suitable way of developing sensible Local Governance Indicators. The purpose here is to provide a detailed roadmap for any country (or region, or locality) willing to engage in the assessment of the quality of local governance. The real-world implementation of a model developed according to these guidelines could help raise awareness, promote good practices and increase the ‘governance literacy’ of citizens. By operationalizing good governance, analysts may also be able to further investigate the relationships between local governance practices and several socio-economic factors.     

Comparison of Two Psycho-Educational Interventions Aimed at Preventing HIV and Promoting Sexual Health Among Portuguese Women

This study compares the efficacy of 2 psychoeducational interventions—ACCENT skills-based and didactic information only—to prevent HIV among Portuguese women. At posttest and follow-up, participants in both intervention groups (n = 127) were more knowledgeable about HIV than at baseline. Although both intervention groups showed an increase in self-reported condom use over time, differences were marginally stronger in the ACCENT group. Both intervention groups showed more positive results than the non-intervention control group (n = 33). The study suggests that HIV prevention interventions can produce significant changes when they target a set of knowledge, social, and cognitive variables relevant to sexual behavior change.     

Marginal models for the association structure of hierarchical binary responses

Clustered binary responses are often found in ecological studies. Data analysis may include modeling the marginal probability response. However, when the association is the main scientific focus, modeling the correlation structure between pairs of responses is the key part of the analysis. Second-order generalized estimating equations (GEE) are established in the literature. Some of them are more efficient in computational terms, especially facing large clusters. Alternating logistic regression (ALR) and orthogonalized residual (ORTH) GEE methods are presented and compared in this paper. Simulation results show a slightly superiority of ALR over ORTH. Marginal probabilities and odds ratios are also estimated and compared in a real ecological study involving a three-level hierarchical clustering. ALR and ORTH models are useful for modeling complex association structure with large cluster sizes.     

抗日战争时期工厂内迁及其对大后方工业的影响

抗日战争爆发后 ,国民政府被迫组织了沿江沿海国营和部分民营工厂迁往我国西南等内地。工厂内迁促进了大后方工业的发展 ,为大后方迅速建立起新的工业基础 ,改变了过去不合理的工业局面。虽然这是在特殊的历史背景下的战时政治经济的产物 ,在很大程度上受制于战争的进展和时局的转换 ,但它却使西部地区的工业在战时短短的数年便走完了平时需要数十年乃至百余年才能走完的历程 ,并为嗣后西部地区工业的发展创设了一些条件和留下了一定的基础。抗日战争时期 ,国民政府主动或被动所采取的有关政策而形成的发展西部地区工业经济的模式 ,至今仍有鉴借意义     

A Comparative Study of Segregation Patterns in Belgium,Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden: Neighbourhood Concentration and Representation of Non-European Migrants

In this paper, we use geo-coded, individual-level register data on four European countries to compute comparative measures of segregation that are independent of existing geographical sub-divisions. The focus is on non-European migrants, for whom aggregates of egocentric neighbourhoods (with different population counts) are used to assess small-scale, medium-scale, and large-scale segregation patterns. At the smallest scale level, corresponding to neighbourhoods with 200 persons, patterns of over- and under-representation are strikingly similar. At larger-scale levels, Belgium stands out as having relatively strong over- and under-representation. More than 55% of the Belgian population lives in large-scale neighbourhoods with moderate under- or over-representation of non-European migrants. In the other countries, the corresponding figures are between 30 and 40%. Possible explanations for the variation across countries are differences in housing policies and refugee placement policies. Sweden has the largest and Denmark the smallest non-European migrant population, in relative terms. Thus, in both migrant-dense and native-born-dense areas, Swedish neighbourhoods have a higher concentration and Denmark a lower concentration of non-European migrants than the other countries. For large-scale, migrant-dense neighbourhoods, however, levels of concentration are similar in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Thus, to the extent that such concentrations contribute to spatial inequalities, these countries are facing similar policy challenges.     

Parameter estimation of state space models for univariate observations

This paper contributes to the problem of estimation of state space model parameters by proposing estimators for the mean, the autoregressive parameters and the noise variances which, contrarily to maximum likelihood, may be calculated without assuming any specific distribution for the errors. The estimators suggested widen the scope of the application of the generalized method of moments to some heteroscedastic models, as in the case of state-space models with varying coefficients, and give sufficient conditions for their consistency. The paper includes a simulation study comparing the proposed estimators with maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, these methods are applied to the calibration of the meteorological radar and estimation of area rainfall.     

Looking for max-semistability: A new test for the extreme value condition

To test the extreme value condition, Cramér-Von Mises type tests were recently proposed by Drees et al. (2006) and Dietrich et al. (2002). Hüsler and Li (2006) presented a simulation study on the behavior of these tests and verified that they are not robust for models in the domain of attraction of a max-semistable distribution function. In this work we develop a test statistic that distinguishes quite well distribution functions which belong to a max-stable domain of attraction from those in a max-semistable one. The limit law is deduced and the results from a numerical simulation study are presented.     

An alternative method for global and partial comparison of two diagnostic systems based on ROC curves

In this paper, an alternative method for the comparison of two diagnostic systems based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is presented. ROC curve analysis is often used as a statistical tool for the evaluation of diagnostic systems. However, in general, the comparison of ROC curves is not straightforward, in particular, when they cross each other. A similar difficulty is also observed in the multi-objective optimization field where sets of solutions defining fronts must be compared with a multi-dimensional space. Thus, the proposed methodology is based on a procedure used to compare the performance of distinct multi-objective optimization algorithms. In general, methods based on the area under the ROC curves are not sensitive to the existence of crossing points between the curves. The new approach can deal with this situation and also allows the comparison of partial portions of ROC curves according to particular values of sensitivity and specificity of practical interest. Simulations results are presented. For illustration purposes, considering real data from newborns with very low birthweight, the new method was applied in order to discriminate the better index for evaluating the risk of death.     

The Satisfaction with Sex Life Across the Adult Life Span

Three separate issues concerning the relation between age and satisfaction with sex life are addressed in this article. The first issue was concerned with the age generalizability of the factor structure produced by responses to the Satisfaction with Sex Life Scale (SWSLS). The second issue was to examine whether there were differences in the satisfaction with sex life according to certain background characteristics, namely age. Finally, the relationship between scores on the SWSLS with those on other relational constructs was explored. Data collection involved completion of a questionnaire. The sample consisted of 1,144 participants. The mean ages of the sample were 38.99 years in (SD = 16.91); ages ranged from 20 to 80. The data indicated that the factor structure of responses to the SWSLS were highly similar through adult life. Religious involvement, marital status, and love status influenced satisfaction with sex life. Expected correlations with measures of other relationship constructs were found. The strongest predictor of satisfaction with sex live across the adult life span was love satisfaction. Suggestions concerning the use of the SWSLS for research and clinical purposes are offered.