Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

德国科技创新体系的治理特征及实践启示

二战以后,德国在世界经济版图中一直占据重要位置,表现得稳健而强劲.有效的科技创新体系是德国经济社会可持续发展的关键成功因素.基于德国科技创新体系结构与功能的分析,从创新基础、治理结构、制度环境、国际科技合作、文化传统与社会环境等方面对德国科技创新体系的治理特征进行梳理和归纳,结合上海创新驱动发展的实践需求,研究德国科技创新体系对于上海创新发展的意义.     

基于在线评论数据的产品需求趋势挖掘

随着经济水平的提高和物质生活的丰富，消费者的需求变化也越来越快。能否迎合市场需求的变化是企业产品成功的关键。随着社交媒体的发展，消费者为了分享购物体验发表了许多在线评论信息，其中蕴含着消费者的需求变化。本文在产品特征提取和属性情感分析的基础上，构建了垃圾评论识别模型。然后，利用时间序列分析模型预测下阶段的产品属性关注度和情感计算。最后结合历史数据的变化趋势，分析产品属性的重要性和市场满意情况。利用汽车论坛上的汽车评论数据对本文提出的研究模型进行了验证。研究结果可以为企业制定营销策略以及产品改进与创新提供决策支持。     

日本思想史脉络中的中国--以竹内好的中国论述为例CSSCI

日本战败之后,经历战争的一代知识分子曾经为实现中日邦交正常化而致力于思想与知识生产,但随着世代更迭,战争记忆的传承在思想史上经历了一个断裂时期,而日本的学院体制也妨碍了其中国观的建设性发展。竹内好在这个时期敏锐地察觉到,日本社会对中国日益失去探求心的现象背后隐藏着一个巨大的危险,即在日本,中国有史以来第一次成为“未知国度”。中日之间为了真正消除战争,相互理解并不能仅仅停留在友好的层面,竹内好设想的“内在于日本的中国”至今对我们仍具有认识论的启示意义。     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

Digital Strategies for Building Spiritual Intimacy: Families on a “Wired” Camino

Qualitative Sociology - Researchers have explored the role that information and communication technologies (ICTs) play in mediating both religious practice and intergenerational family...     

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations of Categories of Physical Activities with Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being in Taiwanese Older Adults

Physical activity takes place in different social contexts such as leisure, home, and work. However, the differential associations of these distinct categories of activity with aspects of well-being have rarely been investigated. This study was designed to estimate independent associations of (a) leisure-time, (b) domestic and (c) work-related physical activities with subjective well-being in older adults. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2009 with 2,295 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 or older in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Among them, 307 participants were selected for a 3-year follow-up study in 2012. The results based on cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses demonstrated that leisure-time physical activity, after multivariate adjustment, was positively associated with five dimensions of well-being, including ‘physical’, ‘psychological’, ‘independence’, ‘learning and growth’, and ‘social’ well-being. Household physical activity was positively associated only with ‘social’ well-being. Occupational physical activity was not related to any dimension of well-being. The study suggests that associations between physical activity and dimensions of subjective well-being during later life are dependent on the social context in which the activity takes place. This study indicates that physical activity taken as leisure has greatest potential to enhance the quality of life of older adults.     

从“网红”大火现象谈互联网时代青少年的主体性危机

青少年是网络的主要使用群体,网络在其社会化的过程中发挥了举足轻重的作用。网络不断带给青少年全新的认知与消费体验的同时,在一定程度上剥夺了主动性与能动性。"网红"现象火爆是互联网经济与文化发展的产物,折射出互联网时代青少年的主体性面临的深刻危机。本文从认知、态度与行动三个层面逐渐深入解读,对青少年认知与审美的主体性、消费行为的主体性,以及价值观塑造的主体性四个方面进行分析,阐释这场全民狂欢背后青少年的主体性迷失。     

“大礼议”与明代后期士人心态蜕变

嘉靖"大礼议"以还,专制皇权的高度强化、社会文化和思想禁锢的加剧与经济发展、繁荣之间存在的错位,导致了明代中后期知识分子与君主间的严峻对立以及知识分子内部的急剧分化。士人阶层在政治和社会层面受挫,转向建设和享受日常生活,这在一定程度上改变了中国古代知识分子的价值观和生活观,使人得以正视自己的身体、欲望和个体生存。但与之相应的,却是对国家前景、社会事业的淡漠。     

《爱国者》:侵华战争期间日本人形象还原与批判

《爱国者》以主人公吴以璜的跨国婚姻为主线,串联起分属不同党派、阶级乃至国家的众多形象,在宏阔的历史背景下再现了特定时代中的个体选择与命运。它不仅塑造中国的爱国者形象,表现中国军民的抗日热情;而且将众多日本所谓的"爱国者"置放于狂热与躁动的舆论环境中,揭示他们由天使走向恶魔的扭曲之路,并剖析深层原因,从而更深刻地揭露了日本军国主义发动侵华战争的罪行。赛珍珠用简约笔法勾勒的日本人群像,既令人信服,又发人深省,充分体现了她对日本民族心理与性格的深刻认知。