马尼拉、澳门、广州:紧密相联的三座城市

数百年来,马尼拉、澳门和广州一直相互依存,保持着密切关系。从16世纪后期至今,三者有着紧密的互动关系,每一城市对其他两者都有着深刻的影响与冲击。这些联系已经维系了几百年,直到今天仍有数万菲律宾人在珠江三角洲生活和工作。牛痘传入澳门和广州或许是巴尔米斯环球之旅的意外收获,但它也确实是三个地区之间长期密切关系的一个表现。在巴尔米斯来到珠江三角洲200周年之际,我们不应忘记三地人民之间在历史上的紧密关系,这一关系仍继续支持和维系着中菲两国,它也将把我们带向未来。     

Vocational Psychology and Career Guidance Practice: An International Partnership

Vast changes in the world of work spurred by rapid technological growth and globalization have called for a more inclusive, progressive, and forward thinking conceptualization of vocational theory, practice, training, and policy. Discussions across 8 discussion groups at the 2007 joint symposium of the International Association for Educational and Vocational Guidance, Society for Vocational Psychology, and National Career Development Association addressed various topics in the field of vocational psychology and career guidance. Several themes emerged that have captured the attention of career scholars and practitioners across the globe: culture and context in theory and practice, research as a process within a contextual system, partnership and collaboration, and social responsibility and public policy.     

Compensation for inconvenience: The utility of shift systems

Abstract

This study is part of a larger study airned at the development of a system for quantifying the inconvenience of shift schedules and schedule characteristics. The results can be used to reduce inconvenience (counter-value compensation) and to compute the monetary (counter-weight) compensability of shift schedules. The results presented here show that consensus exists among subjects from different organizations and with different background characteristics on the utility of several features, e.g. working at inconvenient hours, the irregularity of a schedule, and working during the evening (which has a positive value). The opinions slightly differ with respect to some other characteristics, such as very long shifts, work during the weekend and the average sequence length. The differences are possibly due to job characteristics.     

Income inequality and participation: A comparison of 24 European countries

Previous research suggests that when there is a high level of inequality, there is a low rate of participation. Two arguments are generally offered: First, inequality depresses participation because people from different status groups have fewer opportunities to share common goals. Second, people may participate more in civic and social life when they have more resources. However, until now, these explanations have not been separated empirically. Using EU-SILC data for 24 European countries, we analyze how income inequality is related to civic and social participation. Our results indicate that the main effects of inequality manifest via resources at the individual and societal level. However, independent of these resources, higher inequality is associated with lower civic participation. Furthermore, inequality magnifies the relationship between income and participation. This finding is in line with the view that inter-individual processes explain why inequality diminishes participation.     

Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

Using Discrete-Time Event History Fertility Models to Simulate Total Fertility Rates and Other Fertility Measures

Event history models, also known as hazard models, are commonly used in analyses of fertility. One drawback of event history models is that the conditional probabilities (hazards) estimated by event history models do not readily translate into summary measures, particularly for models of repeatable events, like childbirth. In this paper, we describe how to translate the results of discrete-time event history models of all births into well-known summary fertility measures: simulated age- and parity-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and the total fertility rate. The method incorporates all birth intervals, but permits the hazard functions to vary across parities. It can also simulate values for groups defined by both fixed and time-varying covariates, such as marital or employment life histories. We demonstrate the method using an example from the National Survey of Family Growth and provide an accompanying data file and Stata program.     

Heterogeneity in Parent‐reported Social Skill Development in Early Elementary School Children

Despite known risks associated with aberrant social skill development, there has been a relative dearth of literature on typical developmental changes in social skills over time. In this study, we examine systematic changes in social skills from kindergarten (typical age of 5–6 years) to third grade (typical age of 8–9 years), and focus on systematic heterogeneity across these developmental trajectories. Data came from the National Head Start—Public School Early Childhood Transition Demonstration Project (N = 6964). Mixture models provide evidence for multiple classes of individuals representing heterogeneity in the development of social skills. Classes were defined as a majority class (whose trajectories remained relatively stable over time), an increasing class (whose trajectories increased at a faster rate than the majority class), and a decreasing class (whose trajectories decreased at a faster rate than the majority class). Developmental trends accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in social skill components. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed.