Approximating probability density functions in hybrid Bayesian networks with mixtures of truncated exponentials

Mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTE) potentials are an alternative to discretization and Monte Carlo methods for solving hybrid Bayesian networks. Any probability density function (PDF) can be approximated by an MTE potential, which can always be marginalized in closed form. This allows propagation to be done exactly using the Shenoy-Shafer architecture for computing marginals, with no restrictions on the construction of a join tree. This paper presents MTE potentials that approximate standard PDF’s and applications of these potentials for solving inference problems in hybrid Bayesian networks. These approximations will extend the types of inference problems that can be modelled with Bayesian networks, as demonstrated using three examples.     

Equilibrium unemployment and the duration of unemployment benefits

This paper uses microdata to evaluate the impact on the steady-state unemployment rate of an increase in maximum benefit duration. We evaluate a policy change in Austria that extended maximum benefit duration and use this policy change to estimate the causal impact of benefit duration on labor market flows. We find that the policy change leads to a significant increase in the steady-state unemployment rate and, surprisingly, most of this increase is due to an increase in the inflow into rather than the outflow from unemployment.     

The inverse power Lindley distribution in the presence of left-censored data

In this study, classical and Bayesian inference methods are introduced to analyze lifetime data sets in the presence of left censoring considering two generalizations of the Lindley distribution: a first generalization proposed by Ghitany et al. [Power Lindley distribution and associated inference, Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 64 (2013), pp. 20–33], denoted as a power Lindley distribution and a second generalization proposed by Sharma et al. [The inverse Lindley distribution: A stress–strength reliability model with application to head and neck cancer data, J. Ind. Prod. Eng. 32 (2015), pp. 162–173], denoted as an inverse Lindley distribution. In our approach, we have used a distribution obtained from these two generalizations denoted as an inverse power Lindley distribution. A numerical illustration is presented considering a dataset of thyroglobulin levels present in a group of individuals with differentiated cancer of thyroid.     

Urban Poverty,Ethnicity, and Personality Development

There are multiple factors which contribute to the development of the individual’s personality. Many of these factors have been amply discussed in traditional theories of personality Jonnation. An area that has been neglected in these discussions has been the role that poverty and ethnic and cultural factors may have in this regard. This paper offers a discussion of these issues with special emphasis on cultural, ethnic, and socioeconomic factors which tend to characterize the lives of Latino and Black individuals. Recommendations are made for a re-evaluation of the traditional theories of personality when applied to poor and minority individuals.     

A mixture of beta–Dirichlet processes prior for Bayesian analysis of event history data

In this paper, we propose a mixture of beta–Dirichlet processes as a nonparametric prior for the cumulative intensity functions of a Markov process. This family of priors is a natural extension of a mixture of Dirichlet processes or a mixture of beta processes which are devised to compromise advantages of parametric and nonparametric approaches. They give most of their prior mass to the small neighborhood of a specific parametric model. We show that a mixture of beta–Dirichlet processes prior is conjugate with Markov processes. Formulas for computing the posterior distribution are derived. Finally, results of analyzing credit history data are given.     

Determinants of management’s organizational structure in the public sector

A model is developed to identify factors that are important in determining whether a municipality employs a labor relations specialist as chief negotiator and, if not, whether a municipality has a labor relations specialist on its collective bargaining team. Results indicate that municipal organizational structure for collective bargaining is influenced by the economic and legal environments within which collective bargaining occurs, the complexity of municipal collective bargaining, and various other demographic characteristics of the municipality.     

Etiological patterns of child abuse and neglect

A review of the various etiological possibilities for child abuse and neglect, designed to offer an additional and different possibility. Consideration is first given to problems, namely the lack of universal definition, heterogeneous effects, and retrospective research. The probability of multifactor models is noted, and sexual abuse is given separate consideration, followed by an exploration of the existing models termed ecological, transactional, transitional, and attachment. An interactive aggression model is then offered as the new possibility. Empirical evidence for cultural and/or ethnic predispositions suggests that society can be a supporting or inhibiting factor in terms of promoting or opposing violence.