Optimal cutpoints for random observations

For the discretisation of a continuous random variable into different categories the choice of cutpoints is essential. A popular application is the contingent valuation method. In a parametric approach, the choice of cutpoints directly effects the quality of the estimates. Therefore, optimal cutpoints are desirable in order to estimate the parameters most accurately. We consider an arbitrary number of cutpoints and determine optimal cutpoints for the exponential and Gumbel distribution and prove that the c-optimal cutpoints for the location parameter of the logistic distribution have corresponding equal category probabilities. Furthermore, we show that in the limiting case for infinitely many cutpoints there is no loss of information.     

Informal but Effective: Regional Consultative Processes as a Tool in Managing Migration

During the 1990s, the number of regional consultative processes focusing on migration increased significantly. These non‐binding fora brought together representatives of States, civil society and international organizations at the regional level to discuss migration‐related issues in a cooperative manner. Regional consultative processes, which are increasingly supported by governments, are partly a response to the growing complexity and diversity of international migration. Their emergence attests the importance that governments attach to a regional approach to migration management. Regional processes act informally, focusing on cooperative dialogue with an emphasis on information exchange and technical cooperation. The information exchange and confidence‐building that occurs in regional processes is quite important in terms of developing links between States and influencing the likelihood of future bilateral and multilateral agreements. This article focuses upon the development of regional processes, using examples as illustrations. It suggests that the development of regional processes can be understood in terms of a four‐stage model: first, the decision to address issues of concern in a cooperative regional forum; second, to agree upon a “common language”; third, to agree upon a list of goals and, fourth, a shift toward a more operational process.     

The Effect of Income on General Life Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction

Increasing evidence from the empirical economic and psychological literature suggests that positive and negative well-being are more than opposite ends of the same phenomenon. Two separate measures of the dependent variable may therefore be needed when analyzing the determinants of subjective well-being. We investigate asymmetries in the effect of income on subjective well-being with a single-item measure of general life satisfaction. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984–2004, and a flexible multiple-index ordered probit panel data model with varying thresholds, we find that income has only a minor effect on high satisfaction but significantly reduces dissatisfaction.     

Angst, Depression und die Verleugnung von Abh?ngigkeit

In this text I try to describe the intra-psychic consequences caused by internalisation of external heightened demands in today??s working situation. There has been a change from modernity??s super-ego-centered subjects to the increased ego-ideal-demands in today??s postmodern society of self-control. As a consequence of the rhetorics and ideology of permanent self-improvement, of ??positive thinking?? there is a denial of any intra-psychic conflict, any dependence. This may lead to self-exploitation, exhaustion and ??burnout?? as a self-diagnosis. People apply different strategies for coping with this situation: Application of defense mechanism like projection and splitting can only bring short-term relief. Acceptance of intra-psychic conflict, ambivalence and personal weaknesses as a form of ??intra-psychic democracy?? is a way to long-term improvements and increased tolerance for problems of the self and others.     

Optimal design for the Bradley–Terry paired comparison model

Paired comparisons are a popular tool for questionnaires in psychological marketing research. The quality of the statistical analysis of the responses heavily depends on the design, i.e. the choice of the alternatives in the comparisons. In this paper we show that the structure of locally optimal designs changes substantially with the parameters in the underlying utility. This fact is illustrated by elementary examples, where the optimal designs can be completely characterized. As an alternative maximin efficient designs are proposed which perform well for all parameter settings. Research supported by grant Ho 1286 of the German Research Council (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft).     

Estimation in High-Dimensional Analysis and Multivariate Linear Models

This article presents a new approach of estimating the parameters describing the mean structure in the Growth Curve model when the number of variables compared with the number of observations is large. An unbiased, consistent, and asymptotic normal estimator is derived as well as its.     

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.