Small-area estimation based on survey data from a left-censored Fay-Herriot model

This paper develops methodology for survey estimation and small-area prediction using Fay-Herriot (1979) models in which the responses are left-censored. Parameter and small-area estimators are derived both by censored-data likelihoods and by an estimating-equation approach which adjusts a Fay-Herriot analysis restricted to the uncensored observations. Formulas for variances of estimators and mean-squared errors of small-area predictions are provided and supported by a simulation study. The methodology is applied to provide diagnostics for the left-censored Fay-Herriot model which are illustrated in the context of the Census Bureau's ongoing Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimation (SAIPE) project.     

研究古丝路上族群跨国流动的经验推动“一带一路”的发展

古丝绸之路上的族群流动,曾促使一些帝国崛起;也曾使一些国家民族间构建起利益共同体而放弃战争;还有经贸、科技文化跨国交流而使文明共享和民富国强的经验,如此等等.这类古丝路的人文宝藏,如果进行深入研究发掘,对今天一带一路建设会起举足轻重的作用.本文试图选择一些有关史实进行这方面探讨.     

Nitric oxide and oxidative stress in cardiovascular aging

The long-standing free radical theory of aging, which attributes cellular pathology to the relentless accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), remains attractive but controversial. Emerging insights into the molecular interactions between ROS and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) such as nitric oxide suggest that, in biological systems, one effect of increased ROS is the disruption of protein S-nitrosylation, a ubiquitous posttranslational modification system. In this way, ROS may not only damage cells but also disrupt widespread signaling pathways. Here, we discuss this phenomenon in the context of the cardiovascular system and propose that ideas regarding oxidative stress and aging need to be reevaluated to take account of the balance between oxidative and nitrosative stress.     

Exploratory brand switching: An empirical examination of its determinants

Exploratory brand switching is switching which arises due to some intrinsic desire for change or variety and which cannot be attributed to dissatisfaction with a previous or existing alternative. Four factors which are likely to influence such switching were examined using consumer self-reports and an experimental design methodology. The factors were Optimum Stimulation Level (OSL, an individual difference variable), brand awareness, monetary deal, and product class. Both homemaker and student samples were used. Results show that brand awareness has a fairly large impact on exploratory switching. Monetary deal has a consistently significant, though much smaller, effect. The influence of OSL is small and erratic. The results vary over product classes, but the relative influence of the factors appears to be generalizable to non-food household items such as cleaning products, paper products, and personal care items. Implications for marketers are outlined.     

Civil society organizations and participatory local governance in Pakistan: An exploratory study

This paper analyses the extent to which the civil society organizations (CSOs) have influenced the decision‐making of the local government toward the needs and priorities of citizens. In development discourse, civil society organizations hold a significant importance as they are deemed to provide holistic and new ways to ensure participatory local governance. Therefore, their role against the backdrop of their involvement in mobilizing citizens’ involvement and influencing decision‐making in Pakistan calls for further research. This paper aims to fill this gap. Using qualitative research methods, the current paper appraises the role of CSOs in mobilizing public involvement in the decision‐making process of local government institutions of Punjab, Pakistan. The paper finds that the effectiveness of CSOs is very low due to various institutional and political constraints. Motivations for CSOs seeking citizen involvement have been instrumental in nature rather than motivated by participatory principles.     

Test-Retest Reliability of User Information Satisfaction: A Comment on Galletta and Lederer's Paper

Galletta and Lederer [10] concluded that the short-form measure of user information satisfaction (UIS) lacks sufficient test-retest reliability. We question the validity of this conclusion since the method used by the authors for assessing test-retest reliability is not grounded in classical reliability theory. Analysis of their data suggests that the UIS instrument has adequate test-retest reliability.     

Integrating welfare economics in social work curriculum: a Malaysian case

This paper makes a case for why welfare economics should be integrated and taught in social work courses, taking Malaysia a case in point. This is mainly a conceptual paper and secondary data are used to further support the arguments. Commencement of professional social work in Malaysia dates to 1946, to address the socio-economic problems of the Malaysians and migrants at that time. Social workers need a multi-pronged approach that is crucial to address the human problems that includes psychological, social, political, cultural and economic at micro and macro levels. Most of the problems referred to the social workers stem from poverty, unemployment, low access to material resources and corrupt governance practices coupled with unjust economic policies. Keeping in view the diverse economic needs and strengths of the clients referred to social workers, it is necessary that social workers are equipped with appropriate skills that include broader understanding about political economy. This paper argued that integration of welfare economics in the social work curricula is an urgent need considering the Malaysian economic development, austerity measures and the proactive role that social work as a human rights profession could play in the Malaysian society.     

Prediction Error of Small Area Predictors Shrinking Both Means and Variances

The article considers a new approach for small area estimation based on a joint modelling of mean and variances. Model parameters are estimated via expectation–maximization algorithm. The conditional mean squared error is used to evaluate the prediction error. Analytical expressions are obtained for the conditional mean squared error and its estimator. Our approximations are second‐order correct, an unwritten standardization in the small area literature. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods in terms of prediction errors and their estimated values.     

Three-stage chain sampling plans

This article outlines the structure of a generalized family of three-stage chain sampling plans, extending the concept of two-stage chain sampling plans of Dodge and Stephens (1966) which is an extension of the original work of Dodge (1955). Expressions are derived for the OC curves for several sets of general sets of three-stage chain sampling plans, with cumulative acceptance numbers of (c₁,c₂,c₃) = (0,1,2), (0,1,3), (0,2,3), (1,2,3),(0,1,4),(0,2,4), (0,3,4), (1,2,4), (1,3,4) and (2,3,4). In the original work of Dodge (1955) only acceptance numbers of 0,1 were used and in the extension work of Dodge and Stephens (1966) acceptance numbers of (c₁,c₂) = (0,1) ,(0,2), (1,2), (0,3), (1,3), (0,4) and (1,4) were used with selected sets of values of k₁,and k₂ (the number of lots considered for cumulation in the first and second stage respectively). In this paper the 0C curves are derived more generally for any k₁, k₂and k₃(the number of lots considered for cumulation in the first, second and third stages respectively) combination and 0C curves of a number of plans are given and comparisons are made with some single sampling, two-stage chain sampling and multiple sampling plans.     

Minimum risks chain sampling plans (ChSP-4(c1, c2,)) indexed by acceptable quality level and limiting quality level

summary In this paper, an approach for designing ChSP-4 (c1,c2) plans while minimizing the sum of risks when the sample size is fixed is described. A set of quality level Also, an improved procedure for constructing plans with a given operation ratio is provided.