Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of post-Soviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.     

Reflexivity

Just as the concept paradigmenergized the human sciences in spite of its manydefinitions and uses, so now does the conceptreflexive seem to be of increasingsalience, again with many definitions and uses. It is argued thatreflexivity, as a fundamental human quality underliesvarious attempts to understand and intervene in humanrelationships. By juxtaposing paradigms, reflexivity, and therapeutic progression it is possible toset out several types of reflexivity, some relativelyself-contained and others at the edge of our possibleknowledges.     

The role of theory in the assessment of sex offenders

No generally accepted theory of sex offender behavior exists at this point. As clinical experience and research findings interact within an evolving theoretical framework, the picture of what is important, as well as what is possible to know about a sex offender, is rapidly changing. It is vital that mental health professionals, the legal system, social service agencies, and other consumers and providers of sex offender assessments be aware of both what is possible to learn about an offender as well as the limitations on that knowledge and its application. Prominent theories that influence the assessment of offenders in North America and Europe are presented and examined. Uses and limitations of each theory are discussed. Several trends emerge which could influence the future of sex offender assessment, treatment, management, and policy.     

Rolling horizon master production schedule performance: A policy analysis

In this paper, a simulation experiment has been developed to examine the combined influence of the design, inventory and environmental factors on the cost performance of a rolling horizon master production schedule. Specifically, a 2 5 factorial design was used to examine the effects associated with three rolling schedule design policies, one inventory policy and one environmental condition of forecast error on MPS cost performance. The study was based on actual data from a paint company. Results suggest that the choice of appropriate lot-size and inventory policies have a significant influence on MPS costs and that there are indeed important interactions between these policies and other design factors of a rolling schedule.     

Women and Government Budgets

In recognition of the significant, but often unknown, impact of government budgets on the role and status of women, both Federal and State Labor government administrations have introduced ‘women's budget’ statements. It is important to recognise that the political motivation of governments in establishing women's budgets has been primarily political self interest. To some extent, however, the move also reflects the growing economic focus, and power, of the women's movement. This paper examines the content and limitations of women's budget programs.     

On Bayesian D-optimum Design Criteria and the Equivalence Theorem in Non-linear Models

The concavity of some Bayesian D -optimality criteria is investigated and is found in some cases to depend on the prior distribution. In the case of a non-concave criterion, the standard equivalence theorem may fail, but a local version continues to apply.