The role of passing network indicators in modeling football outcomes: an application using Bayesian hierarchical models

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Passes are undoubtedly the more frequent events in football and other team sports. Passing networks and their structural features can be useful to evaluate...     

The Process of Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Italian Economy

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal analysis of labour flows provides a number of important indications on the characteristics of job creation and job destruction in the Italian economy, and on the role played by small firms in this process. The main indications may be summarized as follows: 1)the ratio of total separations to total work-force is remarkably high, and almost completely independent of the business cycle: one out of four workers leaves his/her position each year in the economy at large. In the small firms sector alone turnover is much higher, with total separations almost approaching 50|X% of employment; 2)as the economy takes a downturn, it is mainly the number of jobs created through expansion of existing firms that follows this cycle, while separations remain roughly constant; 3)the proportion of jobs created via the establishment of new firms is modest compared to that attributable to the expansion of existing plants (16.0-14.491)). Likewise, the proportion of job losses due to closures visi vis employment shedding by contracting firms, is of the same order of magnitude; 4)job creation and destruction is very high in the small firm sector. Employment in firms of dimension (0-19) is 25.8 % of total employment at the beginning of the observation period (1978) and reaches 28% at its end (1984). Yet the proportion of job creation attributable to small firms is approximately 60% of the new positions due to expansion of existing firms in manufacturing, and 68% in the services. The fraction of jobs destroyed by small firms is somewhat lower: about 46% in manufacturing and 59% in the services; 5)he small firms contribution to net job creation appears even more remarkable both in the aggregate, as well as within all sectors of economic activity and geographical areas. In 1978-80 net employment change in manufacturing is 106,000 units per year; correspondingly net job creation by firms (0-19) is alone 222,000. In the services the proportion between net employment change and the share of the small firms is 1:3. In 1981-83, while in manufacturing over 213,000 jobs are destroyed on average each year, net creation by small firms is still positive (+ 48,000); in the services the overall change is very small (+ 3,000), while the net contribution of small firms is + 53,000.     

Introduction to the special issue: “Performance measurement systems in universities: Threats or opportunities for governance?”

Journal of Management and Governance -     

A Bayesian meta-analysis of infants’ ability to perceive audio–visual congruence for speech

This paper quantifies the extent to which infants can perceive audio–visual congruence for speech information and assesses whether this ability changes with native language exposure over time. A hierarchical Bayesian robust regression model of 92 separate effect sizes extracted from 24 studies indicates a moderate effect size in a positive direction (0.35, CI [0.21: 0.50]). This result suggests that infants possess a robust ability to detect audio–visual congruence for speech. Moderator analyses, moreover, suggest that infants’ audio–visual matching ability for speech emerges at an early point in the process of language acquisition and remains stable for both native and non-native speech throughout early development. A sensitivity analysis of the meta-analytic data, however, indicates that a moderate publication bias for significant results could shift the lower credible interval to include null effects. Based on these findings, we outline recommendations for new lines of enquiry and suggest ways to improve the replicability of results in future investigations.