The Value of Information in Decision‐Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.     

美国视频通信市场的转型——付费视频内容转向互联网

本文概述了当前美国有线电视行业／付费视频行业的局势，以及一些重要问题和面临的挑战，展望了未来的视频市场，概述了一个未来视频／宽带市场的战略愿景，然后回归到政策建议及具体的立法和管制行动。这将帮助我们在最短的、可操作的时间内通向一个开放的、非歧视性的、无处不在的宽带网络。     

Control Balance Theory and Violence: An Examination of Contingencies

Abstract

Control balance theory has been previously tested using measures of contingencies. This article builds upon these studies by using data collected from 460 undergraduate students to examine the role of constraints and sensation-seeking in the control balancing process. The findings provide partial support for control balance theory (i.e., that the control deficit and the control surplus both have significant links to predation). Examining the contingency effects showed that the influence of the control deficits and surpluses on deviance was conditioned by contingencies (i.e., high levels of sensation-seeking and low levels of constraint). The findings from this study suggest the need for further exploration of control balance theory, with the focus to shift to Tittle's 2004 revision of the theory.     

Plans for blocking and fractions of nested cube designs

Plans for implementing nested cube designs invoiving 3 to 5 factors within moderate sized blocks are eveloped. Fractionsc of 1/2 and 1/4 replicates of components of the generic design are used. Suggestions for data analysis are offered.     

Classroom sex composition and first-grade school outcomes: The role of classroom behavior

Using nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (N = 21,409; 10,452 girls and 10,957 boys; mean age = 7.24 years), the association between first-grade classroom sex composition (CSC), measured as the percentage of female students, and end of the year academic (reading, mathematics) and socio-emotional (externalizing problems, internalizing problems, self-control, interpersonal skills) outcomes was examined. Using multilevel modeling techniques and controlling for prior achievement levels, CSC was positively associated with children’s reading achievement at the end of first grade; students performed better in reading in classes with a higher percentage of female students. CSC was also associated with three of the socio-emotional outcomes; controlling for prior levels, students in classrooms with a higher percentage of girls had better self-control and interpersonal skills and fewer internalizing problems. Classroom behavior mediated the effects of CSC on reading achievement and the socio-emotional outcomes. Implications for the composition of first-grade classrooms are discussed.     

Emotional balance and probability weighting

We find suggestive evidence that emotional balance has an impact on probability weighting incremental to demographic controls. Specifically, low negative affectivity (implying high emotional balance) tends to be a characteristic of those whose probability weighting functions exhibit lower curvature and more neutral elevation. In other words, emotional balance seems to push people in the direction of normative expected utility theory.     

Interplay between Friends' Aggression and Friendship Quality in the Development of Child Aggression during the Early School Years

The aim of this study was to investigate the unique and combined role of friendship quality and friends' aggression in regard to the persistence of young children's physical aggression from kindergarten to grade 2. The sample included 1555 children (808 girls) assessed annually using teacher ratings. Two theoretical perspectives (i.e., the social learning and the social bonding perspectives) served as frameworks to guide the analyses and interpret the results. In line with the social learning perspective, friends' aggression was related to a significant increase in children's physical aggression. However, in line with the social bonding perspective, good friendship quality played both a compensatory and a protective role, by, respectively, reducing children's initial level of physical aggression and by mitigating, albeit marginally, the associations between friends' and children's physical aggression. These results suggest that fostering a positive relationship between friends in the early school years may decrease physical aggression even if the friends are aggressive.     

Female Labor Supply,Human Capital,and Welfare Reform

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.