STOP‐GO MONETARY POLICY

We propose and estimate several discrete choice models of monetary policy decision‐making that feature time‐varying inertia. The models permit us to account for three stylized facts characterizing monetary policymaking in the United States: (1) target interest rates are gradually adjusted in small discrete movements, (2) there are some long stretches of time in which rates are repeatedly moved, and (3) there are other long stretches in which the policy rate does not change. The models are used to account for delayed monetary policy responses to the recession of 2001 and to the housing‐driven expansion of 2003–2006. (JEL E52, E58, E65)     

Transactions between older people and the hospital environment: A social ecological analysis

PurposeTo illuminate how problems arise between older adults and the hospital environment through examination of the transactions between the two rather than a focus on one or the other.Design and methodsA critical ethnographic study that used constant comparative analysis applied to three data sets: hospital observations, interviews with older adults, and hospital employees.FindingsTwo groups of older people are distinguished: those identified as appropriate older patients and those found to be different or less appropriate. Incongruent relationships emerge only when older people who are inappropriate for the hospital's cultural space confront four areas of poor fit: architectural features, bureaucratic conditions, chaotic atmosphere and hospital employee attitude. These environmental features act in independent and interactive ways to produce a disempowering synergy that erodes independence and confidence; produces stress, worry and anxiety; and enhances disabilities when functional impairments exist. Being different is key to a lack of fit in the hospital environment and the construction of problems. Problem construction with older people is less about age and more about the efficiency of a one-size fits all approach to acute care. Ageism emerges as a bi-product of the pressure on hospital employees to keep the system moving.     

Eschew Obfuscation in Discussing Political Correctness

ABSTRACT

Despite the spectrum of available resources, homelessness is a persistent societal and public health challenge throughout the United States and in San Diego County. Beginning in January 2014, San Diego began the integration of a Coordinated Entry System into its homeless system-of-care. This historical prospective study examined the predictors of establishing eligibility for permanent housing resources among 15,042 single homeless adults enrolled in the Coordinated Entry System Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess the relationship between client vulnerability as measured by the triage tool VI-SPDAT and establishing client eligibility for permanent housing. Overall, being of moderate or high vulnerability was associated with establishing eligibility for a permanent housing resource. Veterans established eligibility faster and more frequently than others, regardless of their vulnerability score. However, the demand for services far outweighed the ability of the system to respond to those with moderate to high vulnerability. More housing navigators and fewer client “hand-offs” between housing professionals are recommended to increase the efficiency of the process. Additional research examining the second and third steps is also needed to more fully understand the factors that promote permanent housing solutions for those seeking services.     

School environment and risk preferences: Experimental evidence

Using a field experiment with high school students, we evaluate the development of risk preferences. Examining the impact of school characteristics on preference development reveals both peer and quality effects. For the peer effect, individuals in schools with a higher percentage of students on free or reduced lunches (hence a higher proportion of low-income peers with whom to interact) are significantly more risk averse. For the quality effect, individuals in schools with smaller class sizes and a higher percentage of educators with advanced degrees have higher, more moderate levels of risk aversion. We further discuss economic, cognitive and emotional development theories of risk preferences. Data show demographic-related patterns: girls are more risk averse on average, while taller and nonwhite individuals are more risk tolerant.     

Tracking national and regional spatial-temporal mortality risk associated with NO2 concentrations in Canada: a Bayesian hierarchical two-level model

The association between daily variations in urban air quality and mortality has been well documented using time series statistical methods. This approach assumes a constant association over time. We develop a space-time dynamic model that relaxes this assumption, thus more directly examining the hypothesis that improvements in air quality translate into improvements in public health. We postulate a Bayesian hierarchical two-level model to estimate annual mortality risks at regional and national levels and to track both risk and heterogeneity of risk within and between regions over time. We illustrate our methods using daily nitrogen dioxide concentrations (NO2) and nonaccidental mortality data collected for 1984-2004 in 24 Canadian cities. Estimates of risk and heterogeneity are compared by cause of mortality (cardio-pulmonary [CP] versus non-CP) and season, respectively. Over the entire period, the NO2 risk for CP mortality was slightly lower but with a narrower credible interval than that for non-CP mortality, mainly due to an unusually low risk for a single year (1998). Warm season NO2 risk was higher than cold season risk for both CP and non-CP mortality. For 21 years overall there were no significant differences detected among the four regional NO2 risks. We found overall that there was no strong evidence for time trends in NO2 risk at national or regional levels. However, an increasing linear time trend in the annual between-region heterogeneities was detected, which suggests the differences in risk among the four regions are getting larger, and further studies are necessary to understand the increasing heterogeneity.