Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to modelling birth prevalence of Down syndrome

Data collected before the routine application of prenatal screening are of unique value in estimating the natural live-birth prevalence of Down syndrome. However, much of these data are from births from over 20 years ago and they are of uncertain quality. In particular, they are subject to varying degrees of underascertainment. Published approaches have used ad hoc corrections to deal with this problem or have been restricted to data sets in which ascertainment is assumed to be complete. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach to modelling ascertainment and live-birth prevalence. We consider three prior specifications concerning ascertainment and compare predicted maternal-age-specific prevalence under these three different prior specifications. The computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in which model parameters and missing data are sampled.     

A Significant Shift: A Pentadic Analysis of the Two Rhetorics of the Post-Vatican II Roman Catholic Church Regarding Homosexuality

This paper argues that, since the Second Vatican Council (Vatican II), there has been a significant shift in the rhetorical stance of the Roman Catholic Church toward homosexuality in which the pre-council rhetoric, which condemned both act (i.e., homosexual behavior) and actor (i.e., the homosexual) has been replaced by two distinctly different rhetorics: a moral rhetoric, which continues the Church's long-standing condemnation of homosexual acts as sins, and a pastoral rhetoric, which argues that homosexuals should be ministered to and embraced. A Burkean pentadic analysis is used to define how the two rhetorics differ from each other and from the earlier rhetoric. The three major influences (i.e., Scripture, Tradition, and Catholic theology/philosophy) that have shaped, and continue to shape, the Church's position regarding homosexuality are described. Some of the socio-political implications of this shift are emphasized.     

Circuit optimization via sequential computer experiments: design of an output buffer

In electrical engineering, circuit designs are now often optimized via circuit simulation computer models. Typically, many response variables characterize the circuit's performance. Each response is a function of many input variables, including factors that can be set in the engineering design and noise factors representing manufacturing conditions. We describe a modelling approach which is appropriate for the simulator's deterministic input–output relationships. Non-linearities and interactions are identified without explicit assumptions about the functional form. These models lead to predictors to guide the reduction of the ranges of the designable factors in a sequence of experiments. Ultimately, the predictors are used to optimize the engineering design. We also show how a visualization of the fitted relationships facilitates an understanding of the engineering trade-offs between responses. The example used to demonstrate these methods, the design of a buffer circuit, has multiple targets for the responses, representing different trade-offs between the key performance measures.     

Fit and Skill in Employee Selection: Insights from a Study of Headhunters

We draw upon evidence from a qualitative study of headhunters to provide insights into the character and importance of candidate fit and skill for the selection of a broad range of white-collar employees. Headhunters suggest that the fit of a job candidate is assessed at two levels, one corresponding with a general compatibility with organization-level norms, culture, and strategy, the other corresponding more closely with traits and characteristics of the person or persons with whom the job candidate actually interviews. Skill—a factor which is largely neglected by those who tout the importance of fit—also plays an important and independent role in employee selection. Stalls that influence the selection of employees from a pool of candidates tend to be highly specific if not idiosyncratic, and take the form of what headhunters call hot buttons. We conclude by discussing the conceptualization, causes, and implications of fit; we also consider how the importance of fit and hot buttons challenges the explanatory logic of standard accounts of labor-market success.     

Will you be ready when the pink slip arrives?

Are you prepared to ride the waves of change? Will you be ready when the pink slip arrives? Health care executives who can jump a little higher and run a little faster will go further in the draft. Those of you who are prepared for change will always be appealing to recruiters and prospective employers. How can you ride these turbulent waves and not capsize? This article explores some suggestions for positioning yourself: Proper positioning with the inevitable changes in mind will help you move your career in a forward direction.     

The medical practice as business organization

Medical practices historically have not been examined in terms of their organizational structures and of the appropriateness of their structures for survival as business entities. In this paper, we propose a model for the typical medical practice and discuss its fit with current organizational theory. It is apparent that the medical practice organization does not fit with the demands of a rapidly changing and complex environment. To survive and grow, the medical practice organization must align itself with others that have an interest and stake in the health care system, develop teamwork among physicians, bridge the gap between physicians and others in the organization, and recognize that the work done in the organization depends on other components of the organization.     

The computerized patient record and confidentiality. The nabobs of negativism are wrong

The handwritten medical record has been the method of choice for documenting health care data since the last millennium. Given this successful tenure, it would be natural to greet any new information system that purports to be an advancement with skepticism. Moreover, physicians as a group are hardly progressive. Yet health care is taking a giant leap and is finally accepting computerization. The advantages and drawbacks of computerized information systems have long been thoroughly tested in such diverse industries as the military, banking, and the airlines. It is difficult to imagine any of these industries in their modern form without an advanced information system.     

Next-generation informatics. A new picture of quality medicine

It's up to the physician executive to make an informed choice when selecting a "next-generation" information system. Look for systems that truly integrate (not merely interface) managed care components, clinical capabilities, and other features in a model that mimics the workflow of an actual practice. Take the time to learn about the technology. Consider how a vendor's product will work at every point within your organization. Seven critical features that physician executives should consider in their decision-making are described.     

The changing academic health center. The death of the traditional academic physician

Organizational change is required if academic health centers (AHCs) are to survive the decreased societal commitment to them. The changes will generate significant emotional responses in the physicians employed by such institutions. This article presents an analogy between the reactions of academic physicians to the changes they are experiencing, and the stages of grief that Dr. Kübler Ross described in terminally ill patients. By placing physician responses in this context, emotional responses to organizational changes can be more easily understood and managed, allowing academic physicians to devote more energy to facing the threats to AHCs in an innovative and constructive manner.