Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province,China, 1975–2005

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.     

Parenting in Context: Impact of Neighborhood Poverty,Residential Stability,Public Services,Social Networks,and Danger on Parental Behaviors

This prospective longitudinal study examined the unique and combined effects of neighborhood characteristics on parental behaviors in the context of more distal and more proximal influences. With a sample of 368 mothers from high‐risk communities in 4 parts of the United States, this study examined relations between race (African American or European American), locality (urban or rural), neighborhood characteristics, family context, and child problem behaviors, and parental warmth, appropriate and consistent discipline, and harsh interactions. Analyses testing increasingly proximal influences on parenting revealed that initial race differences in warmth and consistent discipline disappeared when neighborhood influences were considered. Although generally culture and context did not moderate other relations found between neighborhood characteristics, family context, and child behaviors, the few interactions found highlight the complex influences on parenting.     

Rapid Estimations of Maternal Mortality in Countries with Defective Data: An Application to Bamako (1974–85) and Other Developing Countries

Although Gray has argued that the index of social distance (ν) reflects ‘preference factors free of opportunity factors’, that it ‘controls the effects of size’, both its statistical derivation and performance under hypothetical extremes suggest that it is akin to a class of social-mobility-ratio statistics, which principally measure group size and only faintly reflect other factors. An alternative log-linear assimilation model is presented and tested. Multivariate methods neatly decompose the problem to take into account overall secular change, sexual imbalances, country-of-birth preferences or prejudices, as well as sex-specific patterns. Thus, in the Australian case, where Gray concluded that shifting nuptial country-of-birth preferences were primarily a function of changing opportunities, a log-linear analysis shows that, on the contrary, a dramatic rise in marital assimilation occurred in spite of only modest changes in opportunities.     

Seasonal work and aboriginal employment in two rural areas of New South Wales, 1921–78

This paper has several areas of focus. It chronicles the history of Aboriginal employment in Australia in two contrasting areas; it identifies the characteristics of that employment and traces the nature of its change over time; it outlines the attitude of Aborigines towards their work, and the impact of that work on Aboriginal society; it also considers the attitudes of white Australians towards Aborigines and their employment. Finally, it draws some conclusions concerning the responses of the Aborigines to pressures put on them by the economy and society of the white man.     

Measuring and analysing supply chain schedule stability: A case study in the automotive industry

Final assembly plants send material schedules to first-tier suppliers who in turn send schedules to second-tier suppliers and so on through the multiple tiers of the supply chain. A key cost driver for the supply chain is a schedule characteristic termed stability. The Total Quality Management approach is applied to improve schedule stability in the supply chain of a large vertically integrated automotive manufacturer. A measurement described, actual stability results are provided, the causes of instability are listed, and some corrective actions are specified. Results indicate that schedule stability can be improved without damaging the performance of other measures such as inventory and customer responsiveness. and analysis process is     

The necessities of violence

The paper notes an increasing concern with organisational violence, but also that much of the work considers violence to be a problem requiring functionally effective solutions. We argue for a more radical view of violence, which sees it as inherent to all manner of organising processes, including writing, editing and publishing. The paper considers violence in the establishment and maintenance of order, as constituted in acts of organising, inherent to Self‐Other relationships, in the politics and dynamics of difference, and in issues of identity formation.     

Dose-Response Assessment of Airborne Methyl Isothiocyanate (MITC) Following a Metam Sodium Spill

A tank car derailment in northern California in 1991 spilled metam sodium into the Sacramento River, and released its breakdown product, methyl isothiocyanate (MITC), into the air. This paper describes the risk evaluation process used. Over 240 individuals reported symptoms such as eye and throat irritation, dizziness, and shortness of breath. Reference exposure levels (RELs) for 1 hr were developed for MITC and compared to exposure concentrations. Ocular irritation in cats was the most sensitive endpoint reported. The no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL), divided by an uncertainty factor (UF) of 100, produced an REL of 0.5 ppb of MITC in air to prevent discomfort. An REL to prevent disability was estimated to be 40 ppb. An REL to prevent life-threatening injury was estimated to be 150 ppb. Measured MITC levels ranged from 0.2-37 ppb and estimated peak levels ranged from 140-1600 ppb. The usefulness of RELs for emergency planning is discussed.     

Screening new products for potential winners

New product success is predictable. This paper highlights the findings of an extensive study into new product success and failure, and pinpoints what separates winners from losers. The key success factors are: product superiority—delivering unique benefits to customers, upfront homework—before development gets underway, sharp and early product definition, a strong market orientation with constant customer contact and input, and quality of execution of key activities in new product process. Sadly many firms and new product efforts are lacking on these success factors. This points to the need for a more disciplined approach to product development. One solution proposed is the implementation of a stage-gate or formal new product process—a blueprint for the process from idea to launch. A generic stage-gate is outlined in the article. The experiences of managers in firms which have implemented such processes are investigated, and the performance results are positive: improved teamwork, less recycle, higher success rates and shorter cycle times.     

Lessons from the ‘made in Switzerland’ study: What makes a world-class manufacturer?

Many executives are currently striving to develop world-class manufacturing operations to ensure that they remain competitive in increasingly global markets. To do this, they are adopting a range of practices, from organisational changes such as empowerment and teamwork to the use of techniques such as pull production. Their goal is to substantially improve performance: faster cycle times, reduced manufacturing costs and greater customer satisfaction.The question of how far companies have moved towards world-class manufacturing is at the heart of the ‘Made in Switzerland’ project, a major benchmarking study of Swiss manufacturing practice and performance. The study was carried out in 1995 by IMD faculty and researchers working with consultants from IBM Switzerland. It is part of the internationally-based ‘Made in Europe’ project comprising similar studies in the UK, Germany, The Netherlands and Finland.The central hypothesis of the studies is that the adoption of best practice leads to high performance. The objective is to establish a benchmarking database for participating manufacturers around the world. The studies, which are highly structured, examine six areas of manufacturing practice and performance in detail and assess the relationship between them at individual plants. The areas covered in the study are quality, organisation and culture, concurrent engineering, logistics, lean production and manufacturing systems.Plants in each country are grouped according to their position on the practice and performance indices and then studied in order to pinpoint the issues and challenges facing the manufacturers within that group. Less than three per cent of the 800 plants currently on the ‘Made in Europe’ database are considered ‘world-class’. Yet for manufacturers striving to reach this level of performance, this small minority can provide some valuable insights for the way ahead.This article discusses many of the issues raised by the analysis described above, with particular reference to the ‘Made in Switzerland’ study. In the first section, it looks at the key lessons arising from the Swiss study and what insights these can provide for manufacturers, not only in the Swiss market, but across Europe. In the second section, it looks at how the study can be used for benchmarking and provides manufacturers with some general recommendations to help them focus their improvements and move closer to becoming world-class.     

Experiment-dependent priors in psychology and physics

Sometimes conducting an experiment to ascertain the state of a system changes the state of the system being measured. Kahneman & Tversky modelled this effect with support theory. Quantum physics models this effect with probability amplitude mechanics. As this paper shows, probability amplitude mechanics is similar to support theory. Additionally, Viscusi's proposed generalized expected utility model has an analogy in quantum mechanics.