Feeling at Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.     

What guides subjective performance evaluation: Incentive alignment or norm enforcement?

This paper investigates the objectives guiding a superior’s subjective evaluation of subordinate performance. In a laboratory experiment, we implement a team production setting under uncertainty, where subordinates contribute to the organization’s output by choosing effort levels, but individual contributions are subject to random shocks. After observing joint output, the superior can invest into additional (perfect or imperfect) information about effort levels. We test two competing hypotheses about objectives guiding a superior’s subjective performance evaluation. The incentive alignment hypothesis states that the superior is guided by the objective to establish financial incentives that align a subordinate’s preferences with the organization’s goals such that it is in the subordinate’s self-interest to provide effort. In contrast, the norm enforcement hypothesis states that the superior has a focus on subordinate behavior and wants to enforce the norm of cooperation by rewarding high and punishing low effort. Our results reject the incentive alignment hypothesis and provide support for the norm enforcement hypothesis.     

Local Control Strategy: Simple Analyses of Air Pollution Data Can Reveal Heterogeneity in Longevity Outcomes

Claims from observational studies that use traditional model specification searches often fail to replicate, partially because the available data tend to be biased. There is an urgent need for an alternative statistical analysis strategy, that is not only simple and easily understood but also is more likely to give reliable insights when the available data have not been designed and balanced. The alternative strategy known as local control first generates local, nonparametric effect‐size estimates (fair treatment comparisons) and only then asks whether the observed variation in these local estimates can be predicted from potential confounding factors. Here, we illustrate application of local control to a historical air pollution data set describing a “natural experiment” initiated by the federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970. Our reanalysis reveals subgroup heterogeneity in the effects of air quality regulation on elderly longevity (one size does not fit all), and we show that this heterogeneity is largely explained by socioeconomic and environmental confounders other than air quality.     

Use of Quality-Adjusted Life Year Weights with Dose-Response Models for Public Health Decisions: A Case Study of the Risks and Benefits of Fish Consumption

Risks associated with toxicants in food are often controlled by exposure reduction. When exposure recommendations are developed for foods with both harmful and beneficial qualities, however, they must balance the associated risks and benefits to maximize public health. Although quantitative methods are commonly used to evaluate health risks, such methods have not been generally applied to evaluating the health benefits associated with environmental exposures. A quantitative method for risk-benefit analysis is presented that allows for consideration of diverse health endpoints that differ in their impact (i.e., duration and severity) using dose-response modeling weighted by quality-adjusted life years saved. To demonstrate the usefulness of this method, the risks and benefits of fish consumption are evaluated using a single health risk and health benefit endpoint. Benefits are defined as the decrease in myocardial infarction mortality resulting from fish consumption, and risks are defined as the increase in neurodevelopmental delay (i.e., talking) resulting from prenatal methylmercury exposure. Fish consumption rates are based on information from Washington State. Using the proposed framework, the net health impact of eating fish is estimated in either a whole population or a population consisting of women of childbearing age and their children. It is demonstrated that across a range of fish methylmercury concentrations (0-1 ppm) and intake levels (0-25 g/day), individuals would have to weight the neurodevelopmental effects 6 times more (in the whole population) or 250 times less (among women of child-bearing age and their children) than the myocardial infarction benefits in order to be ambivalent about whether or not to consume fish. These methods can be generalized to evaluate the merits of other public health and risk management programs that involve trade-offs between risks and benefits.     

Workplace flexibility and new product development performance: The role of telework and flexible work schedules

This paper investigates the effects of telework and flexible work schedules on the performance of teams in new product development projects. Organizations increasingly introduce workplace flexibility practices that provide flexibility with regard to where or when the employee works. The findings of NPD teams in five cases, situated in two telecommunication firms, show that telework has a positive effect on NPD performance through enabling knowledge sharing, cross-functional cooperation and inter-organizational involvement. This improves the speed and quality of product development, provided that face-to-face contact is not completely replaced by virtual contact. A basic level of face-to face contact is necessary to offset the negative effects of telework on the quality of the shared knowledge, which are larger when the knowledge is sticky. Flexible work schedules and unexpectedly hot-desking were found to increase telework usage. This implies for managers that workplace flexibility needs enablers and cannot do without a sufficient level of face-to-face contact.     

Engaging Expert Peers in the Development of Risk Assessments

The participation of external technical experts in the development of risk assessment documents and methodologies has expanded and evolved in recent years. Many government agencies and authoritative organizations have experts peer review important works to evaluate the scientific and technical defensibility and judge the strength of the assumptions and conclusions (OMB, 2004; IPCS, 2005; IARC, 2006; Health Canada, 2007; U.S. EPA, 2006). Expert advice has been solicited in other forms of peer involvement, including peer consultation in, for example, the U.S. EPA's Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program (VCCEP). This article discusses how the principles and practices of peer review can be extended to other types of peer involvement activities (i.e., peer input and peer consultation) to develop high-quality risk assessment work products. A comprehensive process for incorporating peer input, peer consultation, and peer review into risk assessment science is outlined. Four key principles for peer involvement-independence, inclusion of appropriate experts, transparency, and a robust scientific process-are discussed. Recent examples of peer involvement in the development of Health Canada's Priority Substances and Domestic Substance List (DSL) programs under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) serve to highlight the concepts.     

让你的谈话发挥效力

让我们想象这样一幅场景：一位人类学家来到你的办公室，他用了一整天时间跟在你身边，寸步不离地观察你的一言一行。当你一天工作结束之后，他告诉你，在这一整天当中，他只看到了一件事情——人们在不停地进行沟通。这位人类学家告诉你，在这一天的时间里，他参加了一些正式的会议，看到人们在进行面对面的交流，进行随机的讨论，或者是通过电子邮件进行沟通。“没错，确实如此，”你说道，“可那叉怎样呢？”人类学家告诉你，你在这一天当中所说的话大多数都是重复的。“这很好，”你告诉自己，     

On the strategic project management process in the UK upstream oil and gas sector

This paper reports on an investigation into strategic project management in the UK upstream oil and gas sector. The management process is represented by a set of elements which covers context, content and output and are balanced across financial, internal business, external environment, and learning and innovation perspectives. The paper uncovers elements that appear to explain successful project management and compares these with the elements to which managers pay greatest attention. There appears to be a mismatch between those elements which are associated with success and those receiving significant management attention.     

The Severity of Supply Chain Disruptions: Design Characteristics and Mitigation Capabilities

Supply chain disruptions and the associated operational and financial risks represent the most pressing concern facing firms that compete in today's global marketplace. Extant research has not only confirmed the costly nature of supply chain disruptions but has also contributed relevant insights on such related issues as supply chain risks, vulnerability, resilience, and continuity. In this conceptual note, we focus on a relatively unexplored issue, asking and answering the question of how and why one supply chain disruption would be more severe than another. In doing so, we argue, de facto, that supply chain disruptions are unavoidable and, as a consequence, that all supply chains are inherently risky. Employing a multiple‐method, multiple‐source empirical research design, we derive novel insights, presented as six propositions that relate the severity of supply chain disruptions (i) to the three supply chain design characteristics of density, complexity, and node criticality and (ii) to the two supply chain mitigation capabilities of recovery and warning. These findings not only augment existing knowledge related to supply chain risk, vulnerability, resilience, and business continuity planning but also call into question the wisdom of pursuing such practices as supply base reduction, global sourcing, and sourcing from supply clusters.