沪深300指数收益率及已实现波动联合建模研究

金融资产的收益率和波动率是金融资产投资和风险管理等应用中的重要决定因素。针对收益率的新息过程与波动率的新息过程之间可能存在相关性的实际情况,将已实现波动区分为连续波动和跳跃波动,对收益率、连续波动和跳跃波动联合建模并刻画各时间序列模型新息之间的相关性,给出联合模型的最大似然估计法,使用2005年4月8日至2011年5月23日沪深300指数5分钟高频数据进行实证。研究结果表明,收益率、连续波动和跳跃波动的新息之间存在统计显著的相关性,对各时间序列单独建模估计的传统方法存在本质缺陷,沪深300指数已实现波动的杠杆效应及周日效应主要来自连续波动分量。联合模型通过对新息之间相关关系的合理刻画,提高了参数估计的有效性。     

A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals’ high‐risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already‐adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.     

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self‐Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza.     

Ambulance allocation for maximal survival with heterogeneous outcome measures

This paper proposes new models for locating emergency medical services (EMS) by incorporating survival functions for capturing multiple-classes of heterogeneous patients. The Maximal Expected Survival Location Model for Heterogeneous Patients (MESLMHP) aims to maximize the overall expected survival probability of multiple-classes of patients, whereby different classes could be defined according to agreed patient categories based on response time targets, or by capturing differing medical conditions each with a corresponding survival function. Furthermore, we propose and demonstrate an approximation approach to solving the extended stochastic version of MESLMHP, which utilizes queuing theory to permit the modeling of congestion and utilization at each ambulance station, and does not require assumptions to be made on the utilization of ambulances. Both models are demonstrated using data from the ambulance service in Wales. We show that our multiple outcome measures and survival-maximizing approach, rather than one based on average response time targets alone or a single patient class provides more effective EMS ambulance allocations.     

RETHINKING THE EFFECT OF IMMIGRATION ON WAGES

This paper calculates the effects of immigration on the wages of native US workers of various skill levels in two steps. In the first step we use labor demand functions to estimate the elasticity of substitution across different groups of workers. Second, we use the underlying production structure and the estimated elasticities to calculate the total wage effects of immigration in the long run. We emphasize that a production function framework is needed to combine own‐group effects with cross‐group effects in order to obtain the total wage effects for each native group. In order to obtain a parsimonious representation of elasticities that can be estimated with available data, we adopt alternative nested‐CES models and let the data select the preferred specification. New to this paper is the estimate of the substitutability between natives and immigrants of similar education and experience levels. In the data‐preferred model, there is a small but significant degree of imperfect substitutability between natives and immigrants which, when combined with the other estimated elasticities, implies that in the period from 1990 to 2006 immigration had a small effect on the wages of native workers with no high school degree (between 0.6% and +1.7%). It also had a small positive effect on average native wages (+0.6%) and a substantial negative effect (−6.7%) on wages of previous immigrants in the long run.     

Entrepreneurial orientation and the business performance of SMEs: a quantitative study from the Netherlands

Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) is often mentioned as an antecedent of growth, competitive advantage and superior performance, and prior empirical research has often shown a positive relationship between EO and performance appears to exist. However, an important question that remains unanswered is what effect EO might have on firm performance during periods of economic crisis, and the severe environmental turbulence that accompany such crises. This research is a first investigation towards the effects of EO on the performance of small and medium sized firms during the current global economic crisis. In this study we use the multidimensional model of EO and test a series of hypotheses pertaining to its performance effects using survey data gathered from 164 Dutch SMEs. The present research shows that proactive firm behavior positively contributes to SME performance during the economic crisis. We further show that innovative SMEs do perform better in turbulent environments, but those innovative SMEs should minimize the level of risk and should take action to avoid projects that are too risky.     

Private equity regulation: a comparative analysis

This article examines the existing contractual arrangements and industry standards in private equity. It shows that investors are, in principle, capable of structuring their particular investments according to their own preferences, there are a range of governance problems and risks that could be potentially hazardous for some classes of investors. We examine the circumstances where existing industry codes and legal tools can be used to address the problems that arise in relation to private equity and buyout activity.     

The supplier selection problem with quantity discounts and truckload shipping

To minimize procurement expenditures both purchasing and transportation costs need to be considered. We study a procurement setting in which a company needs to purchase a number of products from a set of suppliers to satisfy customer demand. The suppliers offer total quantity discounts and transportation costs are based on truckload shipping rates. The goal is to select a set of suppliers so as to satisfy product demand at minimal total costs. The resulting optimization problem is strongly NP-hard. We develop integer programming based heuristics to solve the problem. Extensive computational experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed heuristics and provide insight into the impact of instance characteristics on effective procurement strategies.     

Physicians in transition

The study of physicians as managed care executives has been relatively recent. Much of what was written in the past focused primarily on doctors who had taken hospital-based administrative positions, especially as medical directors or vice presidents of medical affairs.1 But the '80s brought rising health care costs and the emergence of the "O's"--HMOs, PPOs, UROs, EPOs, PHOs, H2Os, and Uh-Ohs--in response. It also brought a growing number of physicians who traded their white coats and their particular "ologies" for the blue suits of executive management. I am convinced that it is important now, and will be increasingly important in the future, to better understand that transition. That belief led me to undertake, with the help and support of ACPE, the survey that is reported in this article. A questionnaire was sent in 1994 to a random sample of 300 managed care physician executive members of ACPE. Responses were returned by 225 members, a response rate of better than 80 percent. Twenty-five of the responses were not applicable, having been returned by physicians who had never made a transition from clinical careers. The remaining 230 responses form the basis for this report.