Analysis and evaluation of moderator effects in regression models: state of art, alternatives and empirical example

The identification and analysis of moderator relationships regularly confronts the empirical research with statistical and methodical challenges. Which misinterpretations and false conclusions result from different methodical procedures for the identification of moderator effects shall be demonstrated by means of the present contribution. Thereby, the moderated regression analysis represents the most popular procedure in this context.     

Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

Life expectancy at birth in the United States during the twentieth century was lower than in many other highly developed countries. We investigate how this mortality disadvantage in the last 100 years translates into the number of hypothetical lives lost and their sex and age structure. We estimate the hypothetical US population if it had experienced in each decade since 1900 the mortality level of the country with the then highest life expectancy and compare the results to the actual figures in 2000. By 2000, the number of additional people who could have been alive had the mortality levels in the United States been as low as those in countries with the highest life expectancy was 66 million. This number is distributed equally between males and females. Suboptimal mortality at reproductive ages is crucial for the cumulative effect of potential lives lost, resulting from premature deaths of women who could still become first‐time mothers or bear additional children. Out of the 66 million additional persons who could have been alive in 2000, 45 million are attributable to those indirect deaths. Although the differences in the composition of the population by sex and age under the two mortality regimes are minor, the majority of people who might have been alive—54 million—were of working age or younger.     

Reforming social security for a long-life society: What impact on women?

As the populations of industrialized countries become progressively older, it becomes increasing apparent that traditional social security systems will have to be modified. This has sparked many questions about the future of social security systems. How can social security adapt to chaning family structures and the expected increase in retirees in a way not discriminating between men and women? to what extent will policy interventions impact differently on men and women? What is “fair” in terms of future pension contributions and benefits? This article attempts to address these questions. It reviews the main policy reforms countries have undertaken to address the long-life society challenge, considers the gender impact of such reforms and identifies the key questions policy-makers need to grapple with in ensuring fairness of outcome for men and women.     

Managing Change at Novotel: Back to the Future

Novotel is one of the world's major hotel chains, occupying a leading place in Europe and with locations globally. We interpret Novotel's change management programme in the 1990s in three parts. First, we summarise the actions that managers took in terms of strategy and organisation. Second, we consider the sequence and timing of events, and how this resulted in rapid transformation in an organisation employing more than 30,000 people. Third, we emphasise the dialectical nature of the change processes: an element often ignored in the literature that likes to see things as an either–or rather than a both. We observed both deliberation and experimentation; both integration and differentiation. We also observed both preservation and transformation, as noted in our sub-title ‘Back to the Future’. Finally, we wrap up with a discussion explaining how our story can add to better thinking about change. We suggest that we can shed new light on some old debates and provide tangible guides for action.     

Einfluss der Besteuerung auf die Bewertung ausländischer Kapitalgesellschaften

Zusammenfassung  Der vorliegende Beitrag integriert die Auswirkungen der Regelungen zur Besteuerung von Einkünften aus ausl?ndischen Kapitalgesellschaften in die Discounted Cashflow-Methodik. Bewertungsobjekt ist eine ausl?ndische Kapitalgesellschaft, der von einem inl?ndischen Anteilseigner oder von fremden Dritten Finanzmittel zugeführt werden. Da das Steuerrecht nicht entscheidungsneutral ist, sind die beiden Finanzierungsalternativen Eigen-oder Fremdfinanzierung nicht als gleichwertig zu beurteilen. Unterschiedliche steuerliche Effekte ergeben sich daraus, dass Zinsen bei der Tochterkapitalgesellschaft grunds?tzlich als Betriebsausgaben abzugsf?hig sind, wohingegen Dividenden aus dem bereits versteuerten Einkommen gezahlt werden (sog. Tax Shield). Im grenzüberschreitenden Fall wird mit der Entscheidung für eine Finanzierungsalternative gleichzeitig bestimmt, in welchem Umfang die mit der Finanzierung einhergehenden Kapitalertr?ge der deutschen oder der ausl?ndischen Besteuerung unterworfen werden. Die H?he des Tax Shield h?ngt damit nicht nur von den Abzugsm?glichkeiten der Fremdkapitalzinsen ab, sondern auch vom Steuerniveau im Ausland. Damit müssen in der Unternehmensbewertung die in- und ausl?ndischen Steuervorschriften, die Steuers?tze im In- und Ausland, sowie eventuell bestehende Doppelbesteuerungsabkommen berücksichtigt werden.

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Effects of the tax regulations on the taxation of income from foreign corporations

Summary  The present article integrates the effects of the tax regulations on the taxation of income from foreign corporations in the discounted cash flow method. The item to be assessed is foreign corporation that is allocated funds (equity capital or borrowed capital) by a domestic shareholder or an unaffiliated third party. In this cross-border case, the decision in favor of one financing alternative or the other will at the same time determine the extent to which the capital yields associated with the financing are liable to taxation in Germany or abroad. The amount of the tax shield therefore not only depends on the deductibility of interest payments on debt, it also depends on the rate of tax abroad. When assessing the company it will therefore be necessary to bear in mind both domestic and overseas tax regulations, domestic and overseas tax rates as well as any existing double taxation agreements.

     

Lorenz Dominance and Non-welfaristic Redistribution

Our concern is for income inequalities that may result from non-welfaristic redistribution schemes. We show that for large classes of income functions Lorenz dominance results can be found in the comparison of two egalitarian equivalent mechanisms. Comparisons of different conditionally egalitarian mechanisms only yield poverty dominance results. In general, no egalitarian equivalent mechanism can be Lorenz dominated by a conditionally egalitarian mechanism. Our analysis stresses the need for accurate empirical estimates of the pre-tax income function and of the distributions of responsibility and compensation characteristics. We thank the Editor, Marc Fleurbaey and two anonymous referees, Geert Dhaene and seminar/conference participants at UAP-workshop (Namur, 2003), ‘Welfarist and non-welfarist approaches to public economics’ (Ghent, 2004), SED (Palma, 2004), SSC&W (Osaka, 2004) and IIPF (Milan, 2004) for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Federal Public Planning Service Science Policy, Interuniversity Attraction Poles Program – Belgian Science Policy [Contract No. P5/21] is gratefully acknowledged.     

Social indicators of racial parity

Using the U.S. Census' Social Indicators III (73 indicators) and the OECD List of Social Indicators (33 indicators), a modified Delphi panel was surveyed in two rounds to rank 106 items and 19 “areas of major social concerns” as to how “essential” or “unnecessary” each indicator was in measuring racial parity in the U.S. A hypothesis about how much consensus was reached overall between the first- and second-round responses and hypotheses about comparative views among Academics, minority Advocates and Government researchers-administrators were tested (See Table I). From the second-round returns, the top 15 indicators (selected by the panel) and the 19 major areas of social concerns were analyzed. Secondary data were gathered and built into a Dissimilarity Index. Comparisons were analyzed statistically in increments of 5 indicators (quintiles), and overall to determine how much parity, or equality, between Afro-Americans and Whites had been obtained between the “early 1980s” and the “early 1990s”.     

Kernel-based semiparametric multinomial logit modelling of political party preferences

Conventional, parametric multinomial logit models are in general not sufficient for capturing the complex structures of electorates. In this paper, we use a semiparametric multinomial logit model to give an analysis of party preferences along individuals’ characteristics using a sample of the German electorate in 2006. Germany is a particularly strong case for more flexible nonparametric approaches in this context, since due to the reunification and the preceding different political histories the composition of the electorate is very complex and nuanced. Our analysis reveals strong interactions of the covariates age and income, and highly nonlinear shapes of the factor impacts for each party’s likelihood to be supported. Notably, we develop and provide a smoothed likelihood estimator for semiparametric multinomial logit models, which can be applied also in other application fields, such as, e.g., marketing.     

On the convergence of some adaptive estimation procedures

In the paper we consider some adaptive procedures for estimating the unknown parameters of autoregressive and moving average processes. In case of AK(p) and MA(1) processes sequences of estimators converging with probability one and In mean square are given