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71.
Standard methods for analyzing binomial regression data rely on asymptotic inferences. Bayesian methods can be performed using simple computations, and they apply for any sample size. We provide a relatively complete discussion of Bayesian inferences for binomial regression with emphasis on inferences for the probability of “success.” Furthermore, we illustrate diagnostic tools, perform model selection among nonnested models, and examine the sensitivity of the Bayesian methods. 相似文献
72.
Fatherhood has traditionally been viewed as part of a “package deal” in which a father’s relationship with his child is contingent
on his relationship with the mother. We evaluate the accuracy of this hypothesis in light of the high rates of multiple-partner
fertility among unmarried parents using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a recent longitudinal survey ofnonmarital
births in large cities. We examine whether unmarried mothers’ and fathers’ subsequent relationship and parenting transitions
are associated with declines in fathers ’ contact with their nonresident biological children. We find that father involvement
drops sharply after relationships between unmarried parents end. Mothers’ transitions into new romantic partnerships and new
parenting roles are associated with larger declines in involvement than fathers’ transitions. Declines in fathers’ involvement
following a mother’s relationship or parenting transition are largest when children are young. We discuss the implications
of our results for the well-being ofnonmarital children and the quality of nonmarital relationships faced with high levels
of relationship instability and multiple-partner fertiliy. 相似文献
73.
74.
Ronald J. Bosch 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(11):3075-3083
When cubic smoothing splines are used to estimate the conditional quantile function, thereby balancing fidelity to the data with a smoothness requirement, the resulting curve is the solution to a quadratic program. Using this quadratic characterization and through comparison with the sample conditional quan-tiles, we show strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the quantile smoothing spline. 相似文献
75.
Historically, organizational politics and political leader behavior have been framed and characterized negatively, as self-serving and counter-productive. However, scholars have noted that political acts can achieve positive ends, and have called for further discussions of positive forms of political leadership. Continuing in this recent stream of research on positive perspectives on organizational politics, a framework of leader political support is proposed, suggesting that the positive features of leader political behavior, and testable propositions are developed. The leader political support construct is defined and its antecedents are explicated utilizing a social capital perspective. Additionally, social exchange theory is used to explain the consequences of leader political support. Contributions to both leadership and organizational politics literatures and directions for future research are discussed. 相似文献
76.
77.
In this paper we give an overview of both classical and more modern morphological techniques. We will demonstrate their utility through a range of practical examples. After discussing the fundamental morphological ideas, we show how the classic morphological opening and closing filters lead to measures of size via granulometries, and we will discuss briefly their implementation. We also present an overview of morphological segmentation techniques, and the use of connected openings and thinnings will be demonstrated. This then leads us into the more recent set-theoretic notions of graph based approaches to image analysis. 相似文献
78.
Marcia Carlson Irwin Garfinkel Sara McLanahan Ronald Mincy Wendell Primus 《Population research and policy review》2004,23(5-6):513-542
We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth. 相似文献
79.
A significant issue existing within the rural economic development literature revolves around the difficulty with sorting
out the controversy of the effects of amenity activities on rural economic growth. This problem is due to the different ways
amenity attributes are linked to regional economic performance. Numerous researchers utilize principal component analysis
to compress groups of variables that describe attributes of natural-based amenity and quality of life into scalar measures.
While principal components are good at reducing a collection of variables into single measures, they often lack interpretability
because they define some abstract scores which are often not meaningful or not well interpretable in practice. We apply the
simple component analysis suggested by Rousson and Gasser (2004, Applied Statistics 53, 539–555) to summarize the information
in groups of variables into a limited number of simple components and improve interpretability at a modest loss of optimality.
Simple components allow us to identify and interpret the effect of attributes that most influence regional economic performance
so as to gain better insight into policies to preserve and advance those attributes. The same methodology is appropriate for
any social science discipline when there is a need to replace a larger number of multiple indicator measurements with a smaller
set. 相似文献
80.
Ronald Inglehart 《International Review of Sociology》2005,15(1):173-201
This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005–2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first ‘predict’ and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999–2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005–2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions – which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory. 相似文献