Uncertainty about Probability: A Decision Analysis Perspective

The issue of how to think about "uncertainty about probability" is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the median as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, we find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group.     

Building Strategic Technology Alliances for Teaching and Learning

There is a major need for higher education to confront intense competition, enhance academic programs to meet the challenges of this competition, and to develop new teaching and learning strategies to meet the demands of the global marketplace. Technology and the Internet are intended to break down the barriers of time and space and enable more students to participate and collaborate with faculty and other students. Critical thresholds must be met in order to use technology to communicate, collaborate, and transform teaching and learning. Strategic technology alliances establish a partnership between technology vendors and higher education that will achieve these thresholds to meet the teaching and learning needs of the 21st century student. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Becoming historical to oneself

A philosophically trained, lifelong learning advocate and program director traces his journey through a series of paradigms of both aging and education for mature learners. Wearing a variety of vocational hats, the author discovers that a brief history of aging consciousness reflects his own development and reveals the subtle interface between personal and public history.     

Demographic Behaviour in Europe: Some Results from FFS Country Reports and Suggestions for Further Research

As part of its FFS project the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations in Geneva has launched an international comparative research programme to come to a better understanding of the changes in reproductive behaviour and family formation in the ECE region. This paper provides a basis for the identification of specific research topics. The paper starts by looking at the main trends that can be observed from registration data. It is obvious that Europe is far from homogeneous with respect to demographic behaviour. There are, for example, remarkable contrasts in the patterns of marriage and divorce. The paper shows that some more insight about the level and trends can be derived from results of the FFS Standard Country Reports. It is also argued that the FFS biographies would best be used in conjunction with contextual data to predict future demographic developments.     

The bright and dark sides of leader traits: A review and theoretical extension of the leader trait paradigm

The leader trait perspective is perhaps the most venerable intellectual tradition in leadership research. Despite its early prominence in leadership research, it quickly fell out of favor among leadership scholars. Thus, despite recent empirical support for the perspective, conceptual work in the area lags behind other theoretical perspectives. Accordingly, the present review attempts to place the leader trait perspective in the context of supporting intellectual traditions, including evolutionary psychology and behavioral genetics. We present a conceptual model that considers the source of leader traits, mediators and moderators of their effects on leader emergence and leadership effectiveness, and distinguish between perceived and actual leadership effectiveness. We consider both the positive and negative effects of specific “bright side” personality traits: the Big Five traits, core self-evaluations, intelligence, and charisma. We also consider the positive and negative effects of “dark side” leader traits: Narcissism, hubris, dominance, and Machiavellianism.     

Are clinician's ever biased in their judgments of the capacity of older adult's to make medical decisions?

Capacity assessment is a growing area of practice in geriatrics. In this pilot study we illustrate the potential relationship between clinician variables and capacity ratings. Twelve older adults with mild dementia or schizophrenia were rated by six clinicians from diverse disciplinary backgrounds. Capacity ratings were associated with clinician values regarding patient involvement in medical decisions, clinician-patient mismatches on such values, and emotional reactions to patients. Expanding our understanding of the impact of clinician variables on capacity ratings may enhance the reliability and validity of capacity assessments and help to promote autonomy when appropriate.     

Gender differences in the canadian economy, with some comparisons to the United States (Part II: Earnings, low incomes, and the allocation of time)

In this sequel to our previous paper, we again look at gender comparisons for the Canadian economy, which we again compare and contrast with the analogous comparisons for the United States economy. Once again, we attempt to ascertain, how different are the various gender comparisons in the two countries. Once again, our principal data sources are Statistics Canada, particularly the two excellent volumes on Women in Canada, for the Canadian figures and Joyce Jacobsen’s fine compilations in her text (1998) for the U.S. figures. In this part of the study, we look principally at income-related matters, such as the gender wage gap and various decompositions of this phenomenon, such as earnings by age of earner and the incidence of low incomes. The second major section of this paper explores questions of time usage and, in particular, how the two genders search for employment when unemployed. Our final section states some tentative conclusions, including our speculative thoughts on why most gender comparisons are so similar on the two sides of the Canadian-American border. Ronald G. Bodkin was professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa from 1975 to June 2001. A revised and shortened version of this paper was presented at the Ottawa Meetings of the Canadian Economics Association, May 1998, and at the 1999 IAFFE Conference on Feminist Economics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada, June 1999.     

Inter‐agency Cooperation and New Approaches to Employability

This article examines the role of inter‐agency cooperation, which is one form of ‘partnership’, in new approaches to employability in the UK. The article articulates a ‘model for effective partnership working’ on employability. This model is applied first in a general review of employability policy and then to discuss case study research on the recent ‘Pathways to Work’ and ‘Working Neighbourhoods’ pilots. It is argued that successful partnerships need a clear strategic focus based on a necessity for inter‐agency cooperation and institutional arrangements that allow for shared ownership, trust and mutualism, and flexibility in resource‐sharing. While some of these factors are apparent in UK employability services, an over‐reliance on contractualism and centralized organizational structures may undermine partnership‐based approaches. Many of the success factors associated with effective partnership working appeared to be in place, even though the role of the Public Employment Service was fundamentally different in each case (as a key actor in implementing the first pilot, but largely withdrawing from the implementation role in the second). The article concludes by outlining the relevance of this model and the case study findings to discussions of the future development of employability policies and related partnership working.