NONLINEAR BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON THE PERSISTENCE OF AGGREGATE SHOCKS

We look for asymmetries in the dynamics of real GDP growth for the G7 countries, using a model by Beaudry and Koop that allows the depth of a recession to influence the rate of growth of output. We find evidence supporting these nonlinearities in four countries, including the United States, but we do not find evidence that the asymmetries are common even among the four countries exhibiting asymmetric behavior. A modification of the model to distinguish between the recession and recovery phases of a business cycle does not change this general finding. The asymmetries discovered by Beaudry and Koop do not appear to be common among the G7 nations. (JEL E32)     

Behaviour Exchange Systems Training: The ‘BEST’ Approach for Parents Stressed by Adolescent Drug Problems

Parents are challenged in the adolescent years by attempts to increase adolescent responsibility while also managing separation issues. Adolescent drug use can exacerbate parental concerns. Parental fears and anxieties surrounding adolescent drug use can undermine opportunities to respond effectively. This paper describes the theoretical rationale for, and early experience of delivering, a brief intervention program designed to assist parents coping with adolescent drug problems. The program emerges out of a hybrid of systems and behaviour therapy principles and has been designed to address issues associated with parenting characterised by a high level of emotional involvement and/or ineffective parental control. Group work encouraging more adolescent responsibility-taking can assist parents disabled by feelings of guilt and failure. As parents develop emotional independence from adolescent behaviour, an appropriate expectation for adolescent control is established.     

Illegitimate pregnancies,abortion, and the relationship with the pre-oedipal mother

There exists a correlation between disturbances in the early mother-daughter relationship and the adolescent's gravitating toward illegitimate pregnancy and abortion. Out-of-wedlock pregnancies may be an expression of opposing urges to separate from the mother while longing to remain very close. Abortion, the ultimate rejection of the fetus, may express hatred of the mother as well as its corollary hatred for a self that has remained merged with a hated or ambivalently regarded mother. In the clinical material it became clear that the most meaningful steps within the treatment were catalyzed by reenactments of the mother-daughter relationship and that interpretation of transference and countertransference tended to be the crucial element in the work. Movement toward more self-acceptance was paralleled by a more benign stance toward the therapist, the mother, and the daughter.This article was completed in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a certificate in the Post-Master's Program in Advanced Clinical Social Work at Hunter College School of Social Work. The author thanks Dr. Lucille Spira for her help in writing this article. Ms. Grill is a psychiatric social worker New York Psychiatric Institute in private practice.     

Nonprofit organization financial performance measurement: An evaluation of new and existing financial performance measures

Consensus about financial performance measurement remains elusive for nonprofit organization (NPO) researchers and practitioners alike, due in part to an overall lack of empirical tests of existing and new measures. The purpose of the current study was to explore potential similarities of financial performance measures derived from two sources: current NPO research and key informant interviews with NPO foundation constituencies. The authors examined financial performance measurement ratios with data from fifteen Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 990 line items. Using factor analytic techniques, they found three performance factors, each with two associated financial measurement ratios, to be present. They categorized the performance factors as fundraising efficiency, public support, and fiscal performance. This article discusses implications of the findings and future research.     

The Maid Trade: Cross-Border Work in South Texas

Objective . The primary objective of this article is to investigate the "informal" marketplace for domestic servants (maids) in a border community in South Texas (Laredo). Methods . A questionnaire was administered by a household member familiar with the present study who employed at least one maid utilizing the snowball method of sample selection. Usable data (surveys) were collected from 389 individuals—195 maids and 194 employers. Results . For maids, who are overwhelmingly female Mexican nationals, the primary determinant or "push" factor in becoming a maid was economic necessity while the primary "pull" factor was good pay. A large hourly wage differential was uncovered for day maids ($3.44) vis-a-vis live-in maids ($2.61), which was primarily the result of civil status and the possession of documents permitting entry into the United States as determined by a logistic regression. Conclusion . The relative attractiveness of work as a maid in Laredo, Texas reflects the benefit of good pay balanced by the cost of poor employment choice in Mexico.     

Using Remote Sensing to Evaluate Environmental Institutional Designs: A Habitat Conservation Planning Example

Objective. Satellite-based remote-sensing analysis is a beneficial, yet underused, tool for environmental policy, planning, and evaluation. We identify its benefits and costs to encourage social scientists to consider the use of remote sensing as a tool for planning and evaluating environmental institutions. Methods. We analyze two multispectral Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images to evaluate a habitat conservation plan (HCP) implemented pursuant to the Endangered Species Act. Results. Image analysis provides useful broad spatial scale information on HCP performance that is not discernible to the naked eye or through other methodologies. Conclusions. Satellite image analysis should be considered as a tool for planning and evaluating environmental institutional designs—despite the financial costs and requisite technical training. These images provide ecological and land cover change information that may not be available elsewhere. We provide lessons learned to help make analysts cognizant of some important issues surrounding the use of satellite-based imagery for environmental institutional analysis.     

Exploring the Unknown: Predicting the Responses of Publics not yet Surveyed

This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005–2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first ‘predict’ and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999–2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005–2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions – which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory.     

DETECT

DETECT is an inexpensive, easy to use, general-purpose, Monte Carlo simulation program for IBM and compatible personal computers. It can be used to quickly analyze fault trees or functions of random variables. DETECT provides a wide variety of input distributions to choose from and a dependency (correlation) option. The result of the analysis is a probability distribution over the variable of interest. We look forward to further improvements (e.g., graphics, full-screen editing, ability to inspect intermediate results) that will make DETECT even more useful and attractive.     

Union survival strategies for the twenty-first century

Clearly, the necessary changes in the law and culture will not come easily or quickly. But, transcending all forms of these labor market segments is a set of concerns that arguably should spur a search for common ground between labor and management. The proliferation of automated technologies, together with the continuing impact of foreign competition with cheap labor markets, has led some to predict that, over the next quarter century, we will witness the elimination of the blue-collar, mass assembly-line worker from the production process.¹⁴ Moreover, the theory that those losing jobs in the manufacturing sector will be generally absorbed into the service sector is losing currency as it is becoming clear that service jobs are, themselves, not invulnerable either to offshore outsourcing (e.g., telephone operators, data processors) or to automated technology (e.g., bank tellers, office secretaries). Nor is it realistic to expect the new “knowledge sector” to absorb more than a fraction of the unemployed and underemployed casualties of this transformation. As a result, the widening gap between the haves and have nots will only continue to grow. As the trend accelerates, certain possibilities for a labor-management accommodation emerge. For one thing, although corporations may be enjoying short-term gains from present wage stagnation, downsizing, outsourcing, and casting off of permanent employees, the longer term effects include a work force with considerably diminished consumer purchasing power. In some industries, corporations are already acknowledging the adverse effects of this trend. Furthermore, as employers are contributing into pension funds on behalf of fewer and fewer “employees,” the forced savings pool that has for many years constituted a primary financing source of capital investments in our economy, will gradually be depleted.¹⁵ At the same time as employers are coming face to face with the disadvantages of the union-free environment they have so long sought, employers are also rediscovering the contributions to productivity, quality, and efficiency that can be gained from a truly empowered work force with an independent voice in the workplace. All of this should lead an enlightened management to place less currency on resisting unionization and other legitimate forms of independent employee representation, and to join labor in advocating strong labor standards and effective labor law for all four of the labor market segments that exist today and will exist tomorrow. The authors wish to convey their deep appreciation for the invaluable contributions to this paper made by David Silberman of Bredhoff & Kaiser and Craig Becker, Associate General Counsel, Service Employees International Union. Another version of this paper was published in Labor Lawyer.