Can Pro-Marriage Policies Work? An Analysis of Marginal Marriages

Policies to promote marriage are controversial, and it is unclear whether they are successful. To analyze such policies, one must distinguish between a marriage that is created by a marriage-promoting policy (marginal marriage) and a marriage that would have been formed even in the absence of a state intervention (average marriage). We exploit the suspension of a cash-on-hand marriage subsidy in Austria to examine the differential behavior of marginal and average marriages. The announcement of an impending suspension of this subsidy led to an enormous marriage boom among eligible couples that allows us to locate marginal marriages. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we show that marginal marriages are surprisingly as stable as average marriages but produce fewer children, children later in marriage, and children who are less healthy at birth.     

A monte carlo of plotting positions

A Monte Carlo study was made of the effects of using simple linear regression, on the appropriate probability paper, to estimate parameters, quantiles and cumulative probability for several distributions. These distributions were the Normal, Weibull (shape parameters 1, 2, and 4) and the Type I largest extreme-value distributions. The specific objective was to observe differences arising from choice of plotting positions. Plotting positions used were i/(n+l), (i?3)/(n+.04), (i?.5)/n, either (i?.375)/(n+.25) or (i?.4)/(n+.2), and either F[E(Y_i)] or F[E(£n Y)]. For each combination of 4 sample sizes (n=10(10)(40)), distribution, and plotting position, regression lines were found for each of N =9999 samples. Each regression line was used to estimate: (1) quantiles of 9 specific probabilities, (2) probabilities of 9 specific quantiles, and (3) return periods corresponding to 9 specific quantiles. Compa[rgrave]ison of the mean, variances, mean square error and medians of these estimates and of the regression coefficients confirm some results of Harter [Commun. Statist. A13(13), 1984] and provide further insight.     

Comments on zacks' recent paper on one-sided cusum procedures

The goal of this paper is to propose approximations for the cdf and the inverse cdf of the normal sample median. The presented methodology, which seems to not have been investigated before, suggests to fit the normal sample median distribution with a symmetrical Johnson S_U: distribution having ap-proximatively the same second and fourth moments. The results obtained with this approach, compared with the normal approximation, are very impressive, especially for the inverse cdf. One important application of the inverse cdf approximation of the normal sample median is the computation of accurate α‐level median/range control limits for any value of α (and not only for the popular value α = 0.0027). This paper can be also viewed as an homage to Professor N.L. Johnson's works by making a link between two of his major papers.     

Limits of Applicability for the Deterministic Approximation of the Two-Step Clonal Expansion Model

Motivated by a hypothesis published recently, the limits of applicability of the deterministic approximation of the two-step clonal expansion model are investigated. The approximate hazard increases unlimited, while the exact hazard is approaching a constant value. The approximate solution becomes inapplicable for hazards in the order of that constant rate. When the initiation rate is much larger than the cell division rate, the survival rate is small when the approximation becomes inapplicable. The simplicity of the exact solutions suggests using them in all situations.     

Characterization of Revenue Equivalence

The property of an allocation rule to be implementable in dominant strategies by a unique payment scheme is called revenue equivalence. We give a characterization of revenue equivalence based on a graph theoretic interpretation of the incentive compatibility constraints. The characterization holds for any (possibly infinite) outcome space and many of the known results are immediate consequences. Moreover, revenue equivalence can be identified in cases where existing theorems are silent.     

Treated and untreated alcohol-use disorders: course and predictors of remission and relapse

The research described here focused on personal, life context, and help-related factors to trace the long-term course of treated and untreated alcohol-use disorders. A group of 461 individuals who sought help for alcohol problems was surveyed at baseline and 1, 3, 8, and 16 years later. Compared with individuals who remained untreated, individuals who entered treatment and/or Alcoholics Anonymous (AA), and participated in these modalities for a longer interval, were more likely to attain remission. Personal resources associated with social learning, stress and coping, behavior economic, and social control theories predicted the maintenance of remission.