The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.      

Asymmetries in Information Processing in a Decision Theory Framework

Research in psychology suggests that some individuals are more sensitive to positive than to negative information while others are more sensitive to negative rather than positive information. I take these cognitive positive–negative asymmetries in information processing to a Bayesian decision-theory model and explore its consequences in terms of decisions and payoffs. I show that in monotone decision problems economic agents with more positive-responsive information structures are always better off, ex ante, when they face problems where payoffs are relatively more sensitive to the action chosen when the state of nature is favorable.      

A Comparison of Ambient Casino Sound and Music: Effects on Dissociation and on Perceptions of Elapsed Time While Playing Slot Machines

This research examined the effects of a casino’s auditory character on estimates of elapsed time while gambling. More specifically, this study varied whether the sound heard while gambling was ambient casino sound alone or ambient casino sound accompanied by music. The tempo and volume of both the music and ambient sound were varied to manipulate temporal engagement and introspection. One hundred and sixty (males = 91) individuals played slot machines in groups of 5–8, after which they provided estimates of elapsed time. The findings showed that the typical ambient casino auditive environment, which characterizes the majority of gaming venues, promotes understated estimates of elapsed duration of play. In contrast, when music is introduced into the ambient casino environment, it appears to provide a cue of interval from which players can more accurately reconstruct elapsed duration of play. This is particularly the case when the tempo of the music is slow and the volume is high. Moreover, the confidence with which time estimates are held (as reflected by latency of response) is higher in an auditive environment with music than in an environment that is comprised of ambient casino sounds alone. Implications for casino management are discussed.     

Constrained Mortality Extrapolation to Old Age: An Empirical Assessment

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of parametric extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, is not sufficient for reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Human Mortality Database and the use of the Horiuchi–Coale and Mitra formulas for reducing the bias of life expectancy in the open age interval. We show that extrapolation accuracy is substantially improved when the extrapolation is constrained by either the empirical life expectancy or the Horiuchi–Coale or Mitra estimates. Unconstrained extrapolations and those constrained by conventional life table estimates of life expectancy in the open age interval show substantial biases and should be avoided. Combining extrapolation with life expectancy estimates which are robust to the effects of age exaggeration appears to be a valuable way of improving mortality estimation.     

Federalism and the Implementation of Environmental Policy: Changing Trends in Canada and the United States

In a federal system of government, powers are shared by the national and sub-national units in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution. However, the process of policy implementation may differ on the basis of allocation of power and the nature of the system. Canada and the United States of America adopted federal systems of government, and faced similar pressures for implementing policies on environmental issues. Yet, the degree of success and outcome appear to be different due to variations in the strength of the respective federalist systems. An analysis of the various aspects of the federal system in the two countries reveals noticeable differences in institutional configurations, relationship between national and sub-national units, and variances in intra-institutional relations. All these have contributed to a divergence in the past, but there is an emerging trend of convergence as both the Canadian and American governments are gradually moving away from their existing patterns of policy implementation toward a new approach involving private-sector initiatives and self-enforcement with strong inclinations toward voluntarization, corporatization and marketization.     

Birds of a Feather? The Effect of Organizational Value Congruence on the Relationship Between Ministries and Quangos

In this paper we investigate differences between the organizational values of ministries and semi-autonomous executive agencies (quangos) that operate at arms’ length. Quangos are expected to operate more business-like, hence they can be expected to value profitability and other NPM-related values higher than ministries. Value incongruence between quangos and ministries is hypothesized to decrease their level of trust. These hypotheses are tested, using combined data from two Dutch surveys (n = 324). The results confirm the expectations, although different types of quangos have different degrees of value (in)congruence, which may lead to variations in the quality of the relationship with their parent ministry.     

Country-specific institutional effects on ownership: concentration and performance of continental European firms

This paper examines the effect of country-specific institutional constructs on the relationship between ownership concentration and performance for firms in the eight Continental European countries of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal. Using data from publicly-traded firms owned by other companies (i.e., blocks), measures of the quality of investor and creditor protection and the effectiveness of legal institutions are applied. Employing a hierarchical moderated multiple regression analysis, differential validity is established for the relationship between ownership concentration and performance as measured by return on shareholders’ funds. This differential effect comes from creditor protection regimes and is consistent with a relational corporate governance model based on debt finance and concentrated ownership.     

基于价值链视角的MBA教育创新思考

中国的企业要提升竞争力．需要的是工商管理硕士这类既有知识又有实践经验的稀缺性人力资源。MBA教育作为这种资源的供应商，扮演了重要的价值创造角色，肩负着为中国发展培养高素质经营管理人才的历史重任。身份象征、知识结构改善、职业目标实现及扩展人脉等MBA的价值通过其价值活动得以实现。为了进一步提升MBA教育的竞争力，需要对MBA进行价值创新。通过减少教育产业竞争所比拼的元素，采用最适合中国文化的教育模式节省成本；再通过增加和创造产业未曾提供的元素,优化整个的MBA教育从而提升了买方价值。这两种行为的交汇点便实现了MBA价值创新。     

Board size and corporate performance: the missing role of board leadership structure

Different arguments have been introduced in the literature both for and against large and small board sizes. In this context, empirical evidence regarding the impact of board size on corporate performance is less conclusive, which means that further study is needed. Contrary to previous work, it is hypothesized in this study that the relationship between board size and corporate performance is more likely to be confounded by board leadership structure. Econometric analysis provided strong evidence for the applicability of this hypothesis and demonstrated that board size positively affects corporate performance in the presence of CEO non-duality (board leadership structure that is split between the roles of the CEO and the roles of the chairman). Furthermore, board size is shown to have a negative influence on corporate performance in the presence of CEO duality (board leadership structure that assigns the roles of both CEO and chairman to the same person). This conclusion is robust to the use of different measures of corporate performance, control variables and econometric models. Thus, these findings cast doubt on most of the existing evidence that posits that either large or small board size is always the best alternative to be followed in all organizations.     

Population monotonic path schemes for simple games

A path scheme for a game is composed of a path, i.e., a sequence of coalitions that is formed during the coalition formation process and a scheme, i.e., a payoff vector for each coalition in the path. A path scheme is called population monotonic if a player’s payoff does not decrease as the path coalition grows. In this study, we focus on Shapley path schemes of simple games in which for every path coalition the Shapley value of the associated subgame provides the allocation at hand. Obviously, each Shapley path scheme of a game is population monotonic if and only if the Shapley allocation scheme of the game is population monotonic in the sense of Sprumont (Games Econ Behav 2:378–394, 1990). We prove that a simple game allows for population monotonic Shapley path schemes if and only if the game is balanced. Moreover, the Shapley path scheme of a specific path is population monotonic if and only if the first winning coalition that is formed along the path contains every minimal winning coalition. We also show that each Shapley path scheme of a simple game is population monotonic if and only if the set of veto players of the game is a winning coalition. Extensions of these results to other efficient probabilistic values are discussed.