It is Whether You Win or Lose: The Importance of the Overall Probabilities of Winning or Losing in Risky Choice

Imagine that you own a five-outcome gamble with the following payoffs and probabilities: ($100, .20; $50, .20; Imagine that you own a five-outcome gamble with the following payoffs and probabilities: ($100, .20; $50, .20; $0, .20; –$25, .20; –$50, .20). What happens when the opportunity to improve such a gamble is provided by a manipulation that adds value to one outcome versus another outcome, particularly when the opportunity to add value to one outcome versus another outcome changes the overall probability of a gain or the overall probability of a loss? Such a choice provides a simple test of the expected utility model (EU), original prospect theory (OPT), and cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A study of risky choices involving 375 respondents indicates that respondents were most sensitive to changes in outcome values that either increased the overall probability of a strict gain or decreased the overall probability of a strict loss. These results indicate more support for OPT rather than CPT and EU under various assumptions about the shape of the utility and value and weighting functions. Most importantly, the main difference between the various expectation models of risky choice occurs for outcomes near the reference value. A second study of risky choice involving 151 respondents again demonstrated the sensitivity of subjects to reducing the probability of a strict loss even at the cost of reduced expected value. Consequently, we argue that theories of how people choose among gambles that involve three or more consequences with both gains and losses need to include measures of the overall probabilities of a gain and of a loss.JEL Classification  D81     

Union Stability and Stepfamily Fertility in Austria,Finland, France &; West Germany

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that unique effects of stepfamily composition on union fertility are confounded with differences between stepfamilies and couples without stepchildren in the risk of union disruption. We use birth and union histories from Fertility and Family Surveys in Austria, Finland, France and West Germany. The risks of a union birth and separation are modeled simultaneously, allowing for the potential effects of unobserved predispositions to have a child or to separate on the other event. We test hypotheses drawn from the value of first and second shared births to couples: Net of the couple’s combined parity, the birth risk will be greater if the child is (a) the first in a union, (b) the first biological child for one of the partners, or (c) the second child in a union.Henz, U. et Thomson, E., 2005. Stabilité des unions et fécondité des familles recomposées en Autriche, Finlande, France et Allemagne de l’ouest, Revue Européenne de Démographie, 21: 3–29.     

Secluded and Proximate Illiteracy: Comparing Situations

Triplot is used to portray the three-dimensional concepts – literate, proximate illiterate and secluded illiterate. Pictographic portrayal complemented with a method proposed to calculate distance between situations enhances comparison. Illustration with Indian data explains change over time, rural-urban divide, and social gap.     

Capabilities and Well-Being: Evidence Based on the Sen–Nussbaum Approach to Welfare

One of the most significant theoretical contributions to welfare analysis across a range of disciplines has been the development of the capabilities framework by Sen and others. Motivated by the claim that freedom should play a key role in social evaluation, the capabilities framework suggests that we consider what it is that people are free to do, as well as what they actually do. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey in conjunction with a list of substantial values posited by Martha Nussbaum, we contribute to the operationalisation and testing of this approach. Specifically, we suggest that commonly used secondary data sources do provide some information about the capabilities people have and that this can be incorporated into models of (subjective) well-being such as those used by a growing number of labour and health economists. We find evidence that a wide range of capabilities exhibit statistically significant relations to well-being that the relations are complex and slightly different for men and women, and conclude with suggestions for future developments.     

Adult Materialism/Postmaterialism And Later Mental Health: The Role Of Self-Efficacy

This study used data from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS) to examine the relationship between materialism/postmaterialism and later mental health. Materialism/postmaterialism was assessed (using Inglehart’s 4-item index) at age 33 and mental health (measured by the GHQ-12) was assessed at age 42. It was found that after controlling for socio-economic status at birth, father and mother involvement in early childhood, parental family structure throughout childhood, psychological maladjustment in adolescence, educational attainment and contemporaneous factors (labour force participation, self-reported physical health, belonging to a religion, and being partnered) materialism was negatively related to ill mental health in men. The relationship between materialism and later mental health became insignificant, however, once self-efficacy was entered in the model, suggesting that materialism was positively associated with self-efficacy which was positively related to mental health. Postmaterialism was insignificantly related to mental health in both men and women.     

Parameters of Household Composition as Demographic Measures

Cross-sectional data, such as Census statistics, enable the re-enactment of household lifecourse through the construction of the household composition matrix, a tabulation of persons in households by their age and bythe age of their corresponding household-heads. Household lifecourse is represented in the household composition matrix somewhat analogously to survivorship in a life-table in demography. A measure of household lifecourse is the average household size, specific to age of household-head. Associated with the age-specific household size is the age-interval 0–4, which yields average number of children present in households, also by age of head. Trajectories of re-enacted household lifecourses for Phoenix and for the State ofArizona are depicted here to track the gamma probability density function. Through this relationship also the association between household size, children per household, and fertility emerges. To the extent that housing conditions or tenure impact average household size, or other aspects of household composition, fertility in particular is discerned as a housing- related demographic attribute of households. Household size and headship ratio, both specific to age of head, are here shown to be analytically related to the household composition matrix, their product yielding the age-specific headship coefficient. As a measure incorporating parameters of households and dwellers, thus also characterizingoccupied dwellingunits, the headshipcoefficient emerges as a demographic indicator of housing in a community.     

Well-Being in an Adult Swedish Population

Objectives: The aim of this study was to see if earlier findings about factors associated with well-being could be replicated in a large population-based sample in Sweden. To the best of our knowledge, no research on well-being has been conducted on such a large population in a country, which by most standards is regarded as one of the most fortunate in the world. With its economic wealth and highly developed social welfare and health care system, Sweden is a country where the conditions for a high level of well-being would appear to be met. Methods: 10,441 randomly selected Swedish citizens, aged between 20 and 64 years, living in Stockholm County, completed a questionnaire covering issues such as demographics, social network and psychological well-being. The data were collected during the years 1998–2000. Results: Male gender, greater age, cohabiting, good childhood conditions, support from friends, sound financial situation and absence of negative life events were positively associated with well-being and explained 20% of the variance. Conclusion: The findings replicated earlier studies. Factors associated with well-being seem to remain the same, and are still explaining only a small part of the total variance, despite different measurements, time, sample sizes or country of origin. Therefore, research on well-being needs to take a new turn, by placing less focus on external factors and more focus on the internal factors, such as a person’s personality and coping strategies.     

Marketing and Quality of Life: A Model for Improving Perinatal Health Status

Introduction: A marketing/business model using non-traditional Quality of Life measures was developed to assess perinatal health status on a micro-geographic level. This perinatal health status needs assessment study for Georgia South Central Region was conducted for the years 1994–1999. The model may be applied to any geographic unit in the U.S. – from a block group level to a state or a region. Methodology: An Infant Health Risk Score was created for each county and census tract by calculating the Z-scores of various Medical, Lifestyle, and Access variables so as to construct a Quality of Life Index. The scores identified the areas in the region that were at high risk for certain medical, lifestyle, and access variables (i.e., high risk for preterm births, low education levels, and poor access to perinatal services). A marketing tool, Claritas PRIZM Clusters, was used to identify a specific cluster and associated marketing information for each census tract within the region. Results: The Infant Health Quality of Life Risk Scores were linked with the PRIZM cluster marketing data to target areas in the region that exhibit high risk medical, lifestyle, and access scores. Health promotion and disease prevention strategies were developed using a marketing/business model. Specifically, media usage and consumer behavior purchasing patterns were identified and processed for every high risk area in the region. The categories for media usage were television, radio, and magazines and the categories for consumer behavior included restaurants, food items, and shopping locations. Discussion: The Perinatal Region is developing strategies to implement the media usage and consumer behavior marketing information to focus their prevention efforts to the high risk areas in the region based on the Quality of Life Measurements. Linking marketing business tools with a Quality of Life health status needs assessment has significant potential for improving the planning, the evaluation, and the focus of prevention efforts.     

Single Parents and Paid Work

Radical social changes in household formation over the past three decades have given rise to the single parent family. In spite of the level of public assistance, which is among the most generous in the OECD, research has shown that single parents (usually mothers) are among the most impoverished members of society. Recent legislation is moving toward mandating single parents off public assistance and into paid work in order for them to achieve more sustainable futures. In this paper we argue that this strategy is unlikely to succeed unless the particular needs of single parents are understood and addressed within a broader debate concerning women, care, and paid work. Family‐friendly workplace practices, more extensive publicly funded childcare, and better opportunities for lifelong learning are some of the changes that are urgently needed to assist not only single parents but all who try to combine the dual roles of working and caring.