RACE-OF-INTERVIEWER EFFECTS IN A PREELECTION POLL VIRGINIA 1989

All published preelection surveys of the 1989 Virginia gubernatorialcontest overestimated the vote share of the black candidateand eventual victor, Douglas Wilder. We offer a "social desirability"interpretation of the polls' inaccuracies and hypothesize thatclaiming support for Wilder was the socially desirable responsefor some whites, especially when the interviewer was black.We show a race-of-interviewer effect on the vote intention ofwhite respondents of 8–11 percentage points in a preelectionsurvey of Virginia voters. The effects were greatest among whiteDemocrats and among whites who were more uncertain of theirvote intention. We discuss the implications of these findingsfor race-of-interviewer research and for improving the accuracyof preelection forecasts in contests with black and white opposingcandidates.     

The relative economic progress of male foreign workers in Kuwait

"A human capital framework is utilized to examine the economic progress of nine nationality groups of foreign workers [in Kuwait] using data from the 1983 national Labor Survey. The sources of earnings' variations of particular interest to us included different degrees of education and experience transferability, occupational affiliation and ethnic background. In general, the results derived from the analysis suggest that 1) foreign workers achieve a discernible economic progress as their residence lengthens; 2) the rate of economic progress varies depending on worker's education, home and Kuwait-specific experience, occupational status and ethnic background; and 3) about one third of the earnings inequality is due to unexplained factors including discrimination."     

Caribbean immigrants: a black success story?

"This article examines the 1980 earnings and earnings attainment process of Afro-Caribbean immigrants [to the United States] relative to Afro-Americans, native-born whites and foreign-born whites. Controlling for gender, the comparisons consider Caribbean Islanders as a whole and disaggregated by nation of origin. The results indicate that, in 1980 at least, fact did not justify the opinion that any West Indian subgroup had higher gross or net earnings than native-born blacks. Rather, a few non-English speaking subgroups fared worse. In addition, regardless of national background, Caribbean-born men experienced vast earnings disparities relative to white men. This was not the case for West Indian women, whose net earnings were, at minimum, equivalent to those of white women. Further analysis suggests that, for most Caribbean groups, West Indian background adds little to an understanding of the earnings attainment process that cannot be obtained from other measurable characteristics."     

Recent trends in the process of stratification

Using the 14 annual cross-sections from the General Social Survey, we specify a "basic model" of attainment and describe the year-by-year fluctuations in its parameters. The results are partially consistent with theories describing the gradual growth of universalistic patterns of stratification and mobility. Under a linear model of educational achievement, we find that the direct effects of race are weakening and the returns to class-based advantages are declining in tandem. The contours of the socioeconomic "gender gap" are also changing in important ways, with the male intercept declining at a rapid pace and the female term registering small and insignificant year-by-year gains. At the same time, the returns to experience and schooling are increasing for men, whereas the corresponding returns for women have remained stable over the 15-year period. This pattern of interaction effects implies that the size of the gender gap varies over time and across different population groups.     

Long term demographic effect of a constant stream of immigration when the population is not reproducing itself

The author describes the use of a model to investigate "the age composition of the stationary population resulting from a condition of below replacement fertility and a continuous stream of immigrants, the size of which for any age remain invariant over time.... We have shown that the number dying among [migrants] is the same as the number of them entering over any time interval, and that is precisely how their stationarity is maintained." The geographical focus is on developed countries that are experiencing below-replacement fertility levels. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

Using nineteenth century census results: the Colombian censuses of 1835, 1843, and 1851

The author discusses three of the six national censuses taken during the ninteenth century in Colombia--those for 1835, 1843, and 1851. The focus is on the importance of macro patterns generated by the data, the methods recommended to overcome the problems of the censuses, and ways to make the information useful for historical demography.     

Refugee research in Africa: problems and possibilities

The author discusses the magnitude of the refugee problem in selected countries of Africa, with a focus on the "conceptual, methodological and practical problems faced by refugee researchers in Africa." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Reconceptualizing migration as a household phenomenon: outmigration from New York City by race and Hispanic origin

"This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analyzing migration as a household event and presents two public use microdata applications of this approach for out-migrants from New York City. The distribution of single- and multi-origin households by race and Hispanic origin permits a more rigorous analysis of household migration differentials....and the disaggregation of household members by migration status provides insight into the household outcomes of the migration process...." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)