Assessing robustness of crossover designsto subjects dropping out

In some crossover experiments, particularly in medical applications, subjects may fail to complete their sequences of treatments for reasons unconnected with the treatments received. A method is described of assessing the robustness of a planned crossover design, with more than two periods, to subjects leaving the study prematurely. The method involves computing measures of efficiency for every possible design that can result, and is therefore very computationally intensive. Summaries of these measures are used to choose between competing designs. The computational problem is reduced to a manageable size by a software implementation of Polya theory. The method is applied to comparing designs for crossover studies involving four treatments and four periods. Designs are identified that are more robust to subjects dropping out in the final period than those currently favoured in medical and clinical trials.     

Rationalists, Fatalists, and the Modern Superstitious: Test-Taking in Introductory Sociology

As sociologists we are guided by a rational approach to understanding the social world. This rational approach is also evident in the way we test students. But do students approach tests from the same orientation that we take in creating them, or are they influenced by such nonrational orientations as superstitions? To explore this question the authors created and administered the Luck and Superstition Questionnaire to 426 students taking Introduction to Sociology. We found that nearly 70 percent of students indicate some level of test‐related superstitious practice. However, we also found that superstitious practice was largely unrelated to religious belief and practice, gender and race, educational performance and grade expectations, and end‐of‐semester pressures. These results are entirely consistent with Colin Campbell's theory of modern superstition. Superstitious practice in modern society is self‐sustaining–not integrated into social institutions or systems of belief–and only “half‐believed” by the very practitioners of modern superstition.     

Public Documents and Legislation

Local government is a big topic. As of the United States, almost anything one could say about it is true somewhere, somehow. And indeed much has been said. There have been continuous comments and criticisms, matched by a plethora of reports and inquiries—both overseas and in every State in Australia.     

The Slope of Change: An Environmental Management Approach to Reduce Drinking on a Day of Celebration at a US College

Abstract

Objective: This research extends the literature on event-specific environmental management with a case study evaluation of an intervention designed to reduce student drinking at a university's year-end celebration. Participants: Cornell University undergraduates were surveyed each May from 2001 through 2009. Sample sizes ranged from 322 to 1,973. Methods: Randomly sampled surveys were conducted after a large, annual spring campus celebration. An environmental management plan was initiated in 2003 that included increased enforcement of the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) law. Results: In the short term, drinking at the campus celebration decreased while drinking before the event increased. Over time, the intervention significantly reduced high-risk drinking on the day of the event, especially among those under the age of 21. Conclusion: These findings are contrary to the argument that enforcement of MLDA laws simply leads to increased high-risk drinking, and therefore have implications for how colleges approach the challenge of student alcohol misuse.     

Agology,Animation, Conscientization: Implications for Social Work Education in the USA

This paper explores three new approaches to an understanding of social work — agology, animation, and conscientization — as presented by a Dutch, French, and Chilean scholar respectively. The differences between these approaches and those in use in the United States are explored Agology is concerned with what we know, animation with what we can do, and conscientization with what we will be. The paper concludes that the use of any of these three concepts in the curriculum would make a significant difference in what we would expect students and faculty to know and do.     

Moderating effects of race on internalizing and externalizing behaviors among children of criminal justice and child welfare involved mothers

This study examined whether the influences of multiple maternal criminal justice involvement (MCJI), community adversity, and violence exposure on children's internalizing and externalizing behaviors were moderated by race. The study included 409 children of criminal justice and child welfare involved mothers, ages 5–15 who participated in the National Survey on Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW). Results indicated that race, defined as Black vs. non-Black, moderated the associations between multiple MCJI and internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Decomposition of the regression effects indicated that non-Black children exposed to multiple MCJI, as compared to non-Black children who were not exposed to multiple MCJI, exhibited significant increases in both internalizing and externalizing behaviors, while Black children who experience multiple MCJI, on average, showed no increases. Similarly, race moderated the association between exposure to community adversity and externalizing behaviors. The decomposition of regression effects indicated that non-Black children who experienced higher levels of community adversity exhibited increases in externalizing behaviors, while Black children showed no increases. Criminal justice and child welfare practice and policy implications are discussed.     

Some new techniques for applying the housing unit method of local population estimation

The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per household. Estimates produced by these techniques are compared to estimates produced by several other techniques. Special census results from Florida provide preliminary evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than the other techniques.     

Comparison of household-survey estimates with projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of HIV/AIDS

The United Nations publishes estimates of HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and orphan numbers for all countries of the world. It is important to assess the validity of these model-based estimates since they underpin much policy concerned with care and prevention. Household surveys that ask questions about the survival of children's parents (orphanhood) offer an independent source of data with which these estimates can be compared. Survey estimates of maternal and paternal orphans are significantly lower than model estimates for 40 surveys in 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (p < 0.001, p = 0.002). This is probably because adult mortality from causes other than AIDS is lower than assumed in the models, although under-reporting of orphanhood in surveys may also play a role. Reducing adult mortality from causes other than AIDS brings the model estimates into close agreement with the surveys. This suggests that the fraction of orphans attributable to AIDS is greater than estimated previously.     

The contraceptive prevalence survey project: content and status

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) selected Westinghouse Health Systems to carry out contraceptive surveys. The primary objectives of the Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPS) are to determine periodically the levels of contraceptive use in the country; to examine the correlates of and differentials in these levels in order to assess the impact of various types of governmental and nongovernmental programs; to identify factors that will facilitate an increase in contraceptive use, particularly factors involved in program planning activities; and to institutionalize in each country the capability to design and implement studies of contraceptive prevalence, to be undertaken at regular intervals by an in-country agency. Each CPS generally collects data on the basic demographic background of the country concerned, knowledge of contraceptive methods, prior contraceptive experience and current method used, past fertility behavior and future fertility intentions, present utilization of various types of service delivery systems, perceived accessibility of contraceptives, and reasons for nonacceptance of contraception. In the CPS project, data collection and field operations have been strongly stressed. Efforts have recently been made to expand the extent and sophistication of CPS data analysis. For example, 2 countries are currently using a series of mathematical techniques called synthetic estimators to estimate subnational levels of contraceptive use by merging CPS and census data. Westinghouse, in cooperation with the University of Michigan, is currently working to develop community characteristics module for inclusion in future CPS projects.