Expected utility with lower probabilities

An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to characterize uncertainty neutrality and different degrees of uncertainty aversion.We are grateful to Birgit Grodal, Salvatore Modica, David Schmeidler, and an anonymous referee for comments, help, and encouragement. Financial support from the Danish Social Sciences Research Council is acknowledged.     

Refining Population Health Comparisons: A Multidimensional First Order Dominance Approach

Protest parties are on the rise in several European countries. This development is commonly attributed to a growing dissatisfaction with life and associated with declining quality of life in modern society of the lowest social strata. This explanation is tested in a cross-sectional analysis of voting and life-satisfaction in 63 districts of the city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, where the share of protest voters increased from 10 % in 1994 to 31 % in 2009. Contrary to this explanation protest voting appeared not to be the most frequent in the least happy districts of Rotterdam, but in the medium happy segment. Also divergent from this explanation was that average happiness in city districts is largely independent of local living conditions, but is rather a matter of personal vulnerability in terms of education, income and health. These results fit alternative explanations in terms of middle class status anxiety.     

Modernity and the development of PR in Norway: Influences and interactions

This article examines the relationship between Norwegian PR history and the development of modernity. The theoretical starting point is based on historical sociology and especially theories of modernity as formulated by Anthony Giddens and Jürgen Habermas. The study concerns the period from 1800 to 1913, where Norway may be defined as a modern capitalist society. The study shows that there is a mutual interaction between PR history and the development of modernity in Norway: in the same way that PR is a product of modernity, PR activities are also important for the development of modernity. Basic concepts in this development are rationalism (science and technology), nationalism, parliament, law/justice, democratisation, freedom of speech, public spheres, individualism, elitism, discipline/control, civil society, capitalism, industrialism, political parties, and mass participation in politics.     

Democratic Participation in Voluntary Associations: A Multilevel Analysis of Sports Clubs in Europe

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Non-profit associations are usually democratically organized, and this feature plays a legitimizing role for the public...     

Private money,public scrutiny? Contrasting perspectives on remittances

Migrant remittances have received unprecedented attention over the past decade and scholars have interpreted remittance flows from a range of vantage points. In this article, we explore the meaning of remittances from three perspectives – (1) as an ingredient of terrorism and crime; (2) as a contribution to development; and (3) as an obstacle to integration. We explore these perspectives through an analysis of eight years of public debate in Norway and a review of the academic literature. Our analysis shows that remittances are open to public scrutiny, often within a strongly normative framework. Such public scrutiny is at odds with the private nature of remittances and affects migrants' everyday lives both structurally and emotionally. This scrutiny of remittances also suggests underlying assumptions about migrants' legitimate loyalties and belonging that fail to take adequate account of their multiple attachments.     

Detection of biomass change in a Norwegian mountain forest area using small footprint airborne laser scanner data

Different approaches for estimation of change in biomass between two points in time by means of airborne laser scanner data were tested. Both field and laser data were collected at two occasions on 52 sample plots in a mountain forest in southeastern Norway. In the first approach, biomass change was estimated as the difference between predicted biomass for the two measurement occasions. Joint models for the biomass at both occasions were fitted using different height and density variables from laser data as explanatory variables. The second approach modelled the observed change directly using the change in different variables extracted from the laser data as explanatory variables. In the third approach we modelled the relative change in biomass. The explanatory variables were also expressed as relative change between measurement occasions. In all approaches we allowed spline terms to be entered. We also investigated the aptness of models for which the residual variance was modeled by allowing it to be proportional to the area of the plot on which biomass was assessed. All alternative models were initially assessed by AIC. All models were also evaluated by estimating biomass change on the model development data. This evaluation indicated that the two direct approaches (approach 2 and 3) were better than relying on modeling biomass at both occasions and taking change as the difference between biomass estimates. Approach 2 seemed to be slightly better than approach 3 based on assessments of bias in the evaluation.     

Lévy‐based Modelling in Brain Imaging

Abstract. A substantive problem in neuroscience is the lack of valid statistical methods for non‐Gaussian random fields. In the present study, we develop a flexible, yet tractable model for a random field based on kernel smoothing of a so‐called Lévy basis. The resulting field may be Gaussian, but there are many other possibilities, including random fields based on Gamma, inverse Gaussian and normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy bases. It is easy to estimate the parameters of the model and accordingly to assess by simulation the quantiles of test statistics commonly used in neuroscience. We give a concrete example of magnetic resonance imaging scans that are non‐Gaussian. For these data, simulations under the fitted models show that traditional methods based on Gaussian random field theory may leave small, but significant changes in signal level undetected, while these changes are detectable under a non‐Gaussian Lévy model.     

Main and Interaction Effects of Women's Education and Status on Fertility: The Case of Tanzania

The analysis is based on individual 1996 TDHS data combined withaggregate data from the 1988 census and the 1991/1992 TDHS. When varioussources of spuriousness are taken into account, it is found that giving awoman more education reduces her fertility much less than suggested byunivariate tabulations of the total fertility rate. Expansion of primaryeducation contributes to only a slightly higher age at first birth, and theeffect on higher-order birth rates is not significant. Changes in post-partum insusceptibility outweigh those in fertility desires and use ofmodern contraception among women not wanting an additional child.Secondary school enrollment influences fertility more markedly, inparticular because of a later first birth. Effects of women's status areestimated in models for actual fertility as well as fertility desires, post-partum insusceptibility and contraceptive use, using up to six macro- ormicro-level indicators. All significant effects suggest that empowerment ofwomen will tend to push fertility down, net of education. The significantinteractions between women's status and education point in differentdirections, but a majority of them indicate that education has the mostpronounced effect on fertility in the more egalitarian regions and amongwomen with relatively high individual status.