A re-evaluation of random-effects meta-analysis

Summary.  Meta-analysis in the presence of unexplained heterogeneity is frequently undertaken by using a random-effects model, in which the effects underlying different studies are assumed to be drawn from a normal distribution. Here we discuss the justification and interpretation of such models, by addressing in turn the aims of estimation, prediction and hypothesis testing. A particular issue that we consider is the distinction between inference on the mean of the random-effects distribution and inference on the whole distribution. We suggest that random-effects meta-analyses as currently conducted often fail to provide the key results, and we investigate the extent to which distribution-free, classical and Bayesian approaches can provide satisfactory methods. We conclude that the Bayesian approach has the advantage of naturally allowing for full uncertainty, especially for prediction. However, it is not without problems, including computational intensity and sensitivity to a priori judgements. We propose a simple prediction interval for classical meta-analysis and offer extensions to standard practice of Bayesian meta-analysis, making use of an example of studies of 'set shifting' ability in people with eating disorders.     

Extension of two-sided test to multiple treatment trials

In a two-treatment trial, a two-sided test is often used to reach a conclusion, Usually we are interested in doing a two-sided test because of no prior preference between the two treatments and we want a three-decision framework. When a standard control is just as good as the new experimental treatment (which has the same toxicity and cost), then we will accept both treatments. Only when the standard control is clearly worse or better than the new experimental treatment, then we choose only one treatment. In this paper, we extend the concept of a two-sided test to the multiple treatment trial where three or more treatments are involved. The procedure turns out to be a subset selection procedure; however, the theoretical framework and performance requirement are different from the existing subset selection procedures. Two procedures (exclusion or inclusion) are developed here for the case of normal data with equal known variance. If the sample size is large, they can be applied with unknown variance and with the binomial data or survival data with random censoring.     

A New Model of Trend Inflation

This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online.     

企业社会责任来源的理论分析

责任、企业责任以及企业社会责任是系列相关概念。责任来源于自由、外部期望和不确定因素,自由意味着责任,期望引发责任,不确定因素直接导致责任产生,责任成就于能力和影响力。企业责任的来源同样如此,企业作为具有意向性的主体,拥有自由抉择的权利和丰富物质资源,决定了企业作为社会公民对社会负有责任。文章具体分析了企业社会责任的理论来源,从协调发展论、权力让渡论和规避国家干预论等角度比较充分地阐释了企业承担社会责任的理论依据。     

电子商务与网络隐私保护：对立的统一体

电子商务的发展有可能对个人隐私产生侵犯,从哲学意义上分析,发展电子商务与网络隐私保护要把握好“适度”的原则,明确现阶段矛盾的主要方面与次要方面,并通过法律的规范和强调运用道德建设来处理好二者的关系。     

独立后吉尔吉斯斯坦俄语发展现状研究

俄语仍然是吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国的官方语言,在吉尔吉斯斯坦仍然保持着较高的使用率。俄语的社会价值导致了吉尔吉斯斯坦吉-俄双语现象的产生,双语制成为吉尔吉斯斯坦的一个主要特征和最重要的文化价值之一。吉国大部分居民有继续保持俄语现有的地位、使用吉-俄双语制的心理倾向,但是,俄语在吉尔吉斯斯坦的发展过程中仍然面临着民族、政治、文化诸方面的挑战。     

ANALYSIS OF DOUBLY CENSORED DATA AND THE HIV INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The paper analyses the distribution of times from HIV seroconversion to the first AIDS defining illness for a subcohort of the Western Australian HIV Cohort Study for whom the seroconversion date is known to fall within a calendar time window. The analysis is based on a generalised gamma model for the incubation times and a piecewise constant distribution for the conditional times of seroconversion given the seroconversion windows. This allows flexible hazard shapes and also allows comparison of goodness of fit of the gamma and Weibull distributions which are often used for modelling incubation times. Computational issues are discussed. In these data, neither age at seroconversion, nor calendar time of seroconversion, nor the identification of a seroconversion illness appears to afFect incubation distributions. The Weibull distribution appears to provide a reasonable fit. The distribution of times from seroconversion to an HIV-related death is also briefly considered.     

公共艺术对构建和谐社会的理论审思

从多元文化视角及文化与社会的互动关系论述公共艺术对于构建社会主义和谐社会的作用,具有独特意义。公共艺术作为社会公众艺术,对于建设和谐的社会文化生态,塑造和谐的社会生存空间,促进人与人、人与自然、人与社会的整体和谐都具有十分重要的作用。当前,公共艺术与社会发展之间存在着诸多不协调的现象,需要从体制、意识、内涵等方面寻求突破。     

试论朱立元的“实践存在论美学”

实践存在论美学是对实践美学的新发展,实践存在论美学提出的三大基本思想是朱立元关于"实践美学"思考中最重要的环节,这三大基本思想由朱立元首次提出并运用到其美学理论中,它们共同构成了实践存在论美学的独特理论内涵.其阐述问题的独特角度,对于实践美学向纵深发展具有极其重要的价值与意义.     

应用潜在语义分析，探析认知科学

潜在语义分析是美国20世纪90年代发展起来的一种信息提取技术.文章对其原理和结构进行了分析,并对其在认知科学的应用,主要集中在文本理解和人类如何获取知识、归纳知识和表述知识方面进行了探讨,最后说明了潜在语义分析模式的意义.