Structural changes in the receiving country and future labor migration--the case of Kuwait

This article describes changes in the volume, age and sex composition, retention, productivity, types of occupation, and economic sector of the labor force in Kuwait. The focus is on the structural changes in the indigenous labor force. Data were obtained from censuses and labor force surveys during 1965-93. Policies after the 1990 invasion pertained primarily to security of public employment sector among natives. Over 98% of private sector employment is among non-Kuwaitis. Government programs support high fertility. Female illiteracy has declined, and the proportion of women with a higher education has increased. Natives comprised 20.4% of the total labor force in 1993. About 90% of native males work in the public sector. 45% of total male employment is in the production sector. Around 50% of non-Kuwaiti males have been employed in production work over the decades. Over 90% of Kuwaiti females in 1993 worked in professional or clerical work. Over 50% of total female labor force participation is in the service sector. Concentration in the public sector increased for Kuwaitis and declined for non-Kuwaitis. Labor force participation declined with increasing age. Retirement benefits encouraged early retirement. The private sector is experiencing the departure of long-term migrants and more rapid turnover of labor. Hours of work are longer in the private sector. Kuwait is still dependent on foreign workers in the production and service industries. It is likely that native male workers will replace foreign workers in professional work and administrative/clerical work. Policies that will assure future reliance on imported labor include the assurance of government jobs for Kuwaitis, retirement rules, and the profitability of the trade in labor.     

On uniformly better combined estimates in row-column designs with adjusted orthogonality

In this note we present a simple procedure for obtaining combined estimates of treatment effects in row-column designs with adjusted orthogonality which are better than the fixed effects model estimates in the sense of having a smaller variance uniformly for all values of the variance components.     

Interval estimation of the common mean

Brown and Cohen (1974) considered the problem of interval estimation of the common mean of two normal populations based on independent random samples. They showed that if we take the usual confidence interval using the first sample only and centre it around an appropriate combined estimate of the common mean the resulting interval would contain the true value with higher probability. They also gave a sufficient condition which such a point estimate should satisfy. Bhattacharya and Shah (1978) showed that the estimates satisfying this condition are nearly identical to the mean of the first sample. In this paper we obtain a stronger sufficient condition which is satisfied by many point estimates when the size of the second sample exceeds ten.     

Analysis of binary data for the balanced one-way classification

A test is proposed for testing the equality of proportions based on the data available from a one-way classification having t treatment conditions and n binary observations per treatment. The test statistic B is a constant multiple of the F-statistic which results when the analysis of variance procedure for the one-way classification is applied to the data and, hence, is computationally simple. The statistic B from this binary analysis of variance (BIANOVA) is distributed asymptotically as a chi-square random variable. The proposed test is uniformly more powerful than either the F-test indicated above or the Pearson chi-square test; however, the attained empirical level of significance is frequently higher than for either of these competitors and usually higher than the stated level of significance for smaller values of n (say n ≤ 20).     

A combined optimization and agent-based approach to supply chain modelling and performance assessment

The main objective of this paper is to give an example of how expert systems techniques for distributed decision-making can be combined with contemporary numerical optimization techniques for the purposes of supply chain optimization and to describe the resulting software implementation. In this paper, multi-agent modelling techniques are applied to simulate and control a simple demand-driven supply chain network system, with the manufacturing component being optimized through mathematical programming. The system measures supply chain performance and the effect of different parameters in the replenishment control system, and can be used to simulate the behaviour of a system that uses optimization for part of its decision-making. The objective of this supply chain network system is to reduce operating cost, while maintaining a high level of customer order fulfilment.     

Perceived Racial Discrimination in Health Care and Race Differences in Physician Trust

Racial discrimination in health care is more often perceived by racial minority patients than by whites. In this study, we explored whether two types of perceived racial discrimination, perceptions that the healthcare system is racially biased in general (perceived institutional racial discrimination) and perceptions that one has personally encountered racial discrimination while seeking health care (perceived interpersonal racial discrimination), mediated racial differences in patients’ trust in physicians. We examined this in a sample of black (N = 127) and white (N = 303) patients being treated in two Veterans Affairs orthopedic clinics for advanced osteoarthritis. Patients completed measures of perceived institutional and interpersonal racial discrimination in health care before meeting with an orthopedic surgeon and a measure of physician trust after the visit. Using a multiple mediator bootstrapping procedure, we tested whether perceived institutional and/or interpersonal racial discrimination mediated the association between race and trust. Compared to whites, blacks reported lower physician trust (M = 4.00 vs. 4.17, β = ?0.15, 95 % CI = ?0.25, ?0.05), more perceived institutional racial discrimination (M = 3.13 vs. 2.60, β = 0.43, 95 % CI = 0.25, 0.61), and more perceived interpersonal racial discrimination (M = 1.94 vs. 1.21, β = 0.60, 95 % CI = 0.47, 0.74). Perceived interpersonal, but not institutional, racial discrimination mediated the race difference in physician trust and accounted for 55 % of the variance. Our finding that lower physician trust among black patients than white patients was explained by perceptions of interpersonal racial discrimination in health care suggests that issues of racial discrimination may need to be addressed in order to foster minority patients’ trust in physicians.     

Fertility and economic and social development in Turkey: a cross-sectional and time series study

Abstract The paper explores the impact of modernization on the fertility levels in Turkey, which started deliberate efforts at economic, social, and political transformation in the early 1920s. It is a disaggregative study using 'province' as the unit of observation. A relatively consistent series of data on population and various economic and social variables was available with quinquennial censuses starting with the 1940 Census. The technique of reverse projection is used to estimate provincial crude birth rates. Since 1955 there has been a consistent decline in the fertility level. A chain-relationship model is estimated using both cross-sectional and panel data. A major finding of the study is that in Turkey, continuing modernization and the concomitant spread of female education will result in a continuing decline in the fertility rate. This negative influence, stable and substantial over time, is largely due to factors other than the usual association between education and opportunity cost of female employment, such as changing attitudes and tastes. Also with the spread of economic and social development influencing the society's norm for average age at marriage and the proportion of women married, the marital rate, though not so significant as education, imparts a direct depressing effect on the aggregate period fertility rate at any given time.     

Black Voters,Black Candidates,and Social Issues: Does Party Identification Matter?*

Objective. Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting. Methods. We test this question with a set of data on black voting behavior in a 2004 congressional race where two black candidates ran against each other. We thus hold race of candidate constant and look at the influence of social issues and party identification on black vote choice. Results. We find evidence to suggest that evangelicalism and support for the war in Iraq is related to being Republican, but that Democratic Party identification plays the dominant role in black voter decision making. Conclusions. Black conservatism on at least certain social issues is real and has the potential to influence vote choice, but the influence of Democratic Party allegiance is still a very powerful cue for black voters.