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21.
David J. Sharrow Jessica Godwin Yanjun He Samuel J. Clark Adrian E. Raftery 《Population studies》2018,72(1):1-15
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling. 相似文献
22.
Sascha O. Becker Samuel Bentolila Ana Fernandes Andrea Ichino 《Journal of population economics》2010,23(3):1047-1071
We test whether job insecurity of parents and children affect children’s moving-out decisions. Macroeconomic estimates for
13 European countries over 1983–2004 show that coresidence increases by 1.7 percentage points (PP) following a 10 PP rise
in the share of youths perceiving their job to be insecure and declines by 1.1 PP following the same increment in insecurity
for older workers. Microeconometric evidence for Italy in the mid-1990s shows that the probability of moving out increases
by about half a percentage point for a one-standard-deviation increase in paternal insecurity and by one-third of a percentage
point for a one-standard-deviation decrease in children’s insecurity. 相似文献
23.
Siobhan A. Morse MHSA CRC CAI MAC Samuel MacMaster PhD 《Journal of social work practice in the addictions》2014,14(1):6-26
Substance use among college-age adults is of interest due to high levels of use and low levels of treatment access and engagement relative to other adults. Data collected from 1,972 clients in residential services were analyzed to investigate differences in use patterns, treatment outcomes, and other life area problems. Participants completed an Addiction Severity Index (ASI) and the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA) at baseline, and an ASI and Treatment Services Review at 1-month and 6-month postdischarge interviews. Almost a quarter (24.1%) of participants were college age (18–25 years old). They were more likely to be White and male, and less likely to complete treatment although they had a longer average length of stay. College-age adults improved on all outcome measures, and posttreatment service use shows significant difference between college-age and older participants. Implications for practice are discussed. 相似文献
24.
Does Viewing Pornography Diminish Religiosity Over Time? Evidence From Two-Wave Panel Data 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Samuel L. Perry 《Journal of sex research》2017,54(2):214-226
Research consistently shows a negative association between religiosity and viewing pornography. While scholars typically assume that greater religiosity leads to less frequent pornography use, none have empirically examined whether the reverse could be true: that greater pornography use may lead to lower levels of religiosity over time. I tested for this possibility using two waves of the nationally representative Portraits of American Life Study (PALS). Persons who viewed pornography at all at Wave 1 reported more religious doubt, lower religious salience, and lower prayer frequency at Wave 2 compared to those who never viewed porn. Considering the effect of porn-viewing frequency, viewing porn more often at Wave 1 corresponded to increases in religious doubt and declining religious salience at Wave 2. However, the effect of earlier pornography use on later religious service attendance and prayer was curvilinear: Religious service attendance and prayer decline to a point and then increase at higher levels of pornography viewing. Testing for interactions revealed that all effects appear to hold regardless of gender. Findings suggest that viewing pornography may lead to declines in some dimensions of religiosity but at more extreme levels may actually stimulate, or at least be conducive to, greater religiosity along other dimensions. 相似文献
25.
Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula Brian Houle Mark A. Collinson Kathleen Kahn Stephen Tollman Samuel Clark 《Social indicators research》2017,133(3):1047-1073
Understanding the distribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and its temporal dynamics within a population is critical to ensure that policies and interventions adequately and equitably contribute to the well-being and life chances of all individuals. This study assesses the dynamics of SES in a typical rural South African setting over the period 2001–2013 using data on household assets from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Three SES indices, an absolute index, principal component analysis index and multiple correspondence analysis index, are constructed from the household asset indicators. Relative distribution methods are then applied to the indices to assess changes over time in the distribution of SES with special focus on location and shape shifts. Results show that the proportion of households that own assets associated with greater modern wealth has substantially increased over time. In addition, relative distributions in all three indices show that the median SES index value has shifted up and the distribution has become less polarized and is converging towards the middle. However, the convergence is larger from the upper tail than from the lower tail, which suggests that the improvement in SES has been slower for poorer households. The results also show persistent ethnic differences in SES with households of former Mozambican refugees being at a disadvantage. From a methodological perspective, the study findings demonstrate the comparability of the easy-to-compute absolute index to other SES indices constructed using more advanced statistical techniques in assessing household SES. 相似文献
26.
27.
We study the insurance mechanisms employed by households to absorb unemployment shocks using comparable data for four countries:
Italy, Spain, Great Britain, and the US. Results on family transfers when the male household head becomes unemployed suggest
that family networks are the weakest in Britain, while unemployment benefits there are instead the most generous across the
four countries. Despite these differences, food consumption losses induced by unemployment of the male household head are
similar across countries. These findings are consistent with the view that family support and the Welfare State substitute
each other in mitigating the consequences of unemployment shocks.
The first author is also affiliated with CEPR and CESifo, the second author with EUI, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA. 相似文献
28.
We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year age groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strategy. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in using classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts born before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining cohorts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All approaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of deaths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong confirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census undercounts for African Americans while extending estimates to new cohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historical series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973). 相似文献
29.
Test Validity: A Matter of Consequence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Social Indicators Research - In this note I comment briefly on Keith Markus's illuminating article on “Science, measurement, and validity: Is completion of Samuel Messick's synthesis... 相似文献
30.
Todd W. Ferguson Samuel Stroope Joshua C. Tom Brita Andercheck Brandon C. Martinez 《Sociological spectrum》2017,37(4):223-236
Community solidarity, or a collective sense of belonging, plays a vital role in the health and survival of many organizations. Consequently, identifying the elements that contribute to a strong sense of solidarity within communities has long been a topic of inquiry for scholars. In this study, we draw upon prior theorizing to develop and test four hypotheses regarding the organizational characteristics associated with community solidarity in religious congregations. Multivariate models are estimated using national data on religious congregations from the 2001 U.S. Congregational Life Survey (n?=?357). Organizations with greater community solidarity tend to feature higher levels of social capital (operationalized with measures of friendship networks and participation in organizational activities), higher levels of official membership within the organization, and inspiring congregational leadership. Higher levels of commitment are associated with greater community solidarity, but the effect is wholly mediated by social capital. Congregations that engender higher levels of community solidarity share certain organizational features, including higher levels of social capital, higher rates of membership, and inspiring leaders. 相似文献