U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.     

Harmful Algal Blooms in South Carolina Residential and Golf Course Ponds

The South Carolina coastal zone is among the fastest growing areas in the U.S., and population epicenters are marked by dense brackish water pond (lagoon) coverage associated with housing complexes and golf courses. Surveillance efforts in 2001–2002 documented the widespread occurrence of several types of potentially or measurably toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) in these ponds. These man-made retention ponds were constructed in order to serve as a buffer between developed areas and open estuaries or for aesthetic reasons. However, the combination of restricted tidal flow and nutrient and/or contaminant deposition creates a stimulatory environment for potential HAB formation. These discoveries introduce the need to consider mitigation measures to existing ponds and HAB preventive strategies for future pond construction.     

Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: Cohort and other determinants

Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have been periods during which the age- and gender-specific risks of particular causes of death have either increased or decreased. These periods partly reflect the persistent effects of population health factors on specific birth cohorts. It is important to understand the ebbs and flows of cause-specific mortality rates because general life expectancy trends are the product of interactions of multiple dynamic period and cohort factors. Consequently, we first review factors potentially affecting cohort health back to 1880 and explore how that history might affect the current and future cohort mortality risks of major chronic diseases. We then examine how those factors affect the age-specific linkage of disability and mortality in three sets of birth cohorts assessed using the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys and Medicare mortality data collected from 1982 to 1991. We find large changes in both mortality and disability in those cohorts. providing insights into what changes might have occurred and into what future changes might be expected.     

Contents of Volume 70

Volume contents

Contents of Volume 70     

Foster parent perspectives of privatization policy and the privatized system

This study focused on foster parent perspectives of foster care privatization in the state of Florida. Ninety-nine members of Florida's foster parent associations were surveyed with a special attention toward their stance on privatization policy and their views of the local private agencies that deliver services in the privatized system. Results identified no clear consensus on the topic of privatization policy. Policy support was more likely to be seen among foster parents who had not served prior to privatization and among foster parents who viewed the local private agency to be competent and responsive. Views of local private agencies were most strongly influenced by the foster parents' satisfaction with foster parent training, their involvement in case decision-making, and the kindness of the foster care worker. These results have implications for practice in the privatized foster care system and for research in the evaluation of these systems.     

Child Neglect and Its Association With Subsequent Juvenile Drug and Alcohol Offense

This study presents empirical findings about the association between childhood neglect and adolescents’ subsequent involvement with drug and alcohol related offense from a sample of 251 neglected children and their community matched control (N = 502) from a 17-year period longitudinal data set. Findings confirmed that neglected children were at greater risk to be arrested for later juvenile drug and alcohol offenses than non-neglected children. Being male, White and the presence of domestic violence also significantly contributed to elevated risks of being arrested for juvenile drug and alcohol violations for neglected children. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

The role of tourism in national human resource development: a Jamaican perspective

Research in the national human resource development (NHRD) field is increasingly considering unique cultural and economic conditions and the influence this may have on a number of employment-related indicators. To date, the NHRD literature has largely ignored issues related to skills training and workforce development in the tourism industry, despite the expanding nature of this dynamic service sector in many nations. This literature review study of NHRD in Jamaica examined ongoing national-level human resource development (HRD) initiatives with specific attention to the current and future impact of NHRD on the tourism industry. The results showed that governmental development plans clearly identified tourism as a key sector for economic growth to support larger economic and social development goals. Furthermore, the development of human resources in the tourism sector was seen as being of vital importance for tourism organizations and for the continued development of Jamaica. The existing NHRD literature has largely overlooked the potential influence and future role of the tourism industry to assist in education, training and development goals at the national level. Recommendations are made for additional research exploring connections between NHRD and tourism employment.     

Continuity and Change in Rural Migration Patterns, 1950–1995*

Abstract During the past several decades, rural America has experienced turbulent demographic change. We examine rural age‐specific migration data for 1950 to 1995 to ascertain whether the numerous economic, social, and technological factors buffeting nonmetropolitan America have altered migration patterns across age groups and types of counties. Both continuity and change are evident in the analysis. We find differentiation in the migration profiles of certain specialized types of rural counties, as well as temporal variability from decade to decade. No clear longitudinal trend in migration patterns is present, however. In fact, an underlying continuity in age‐specific trends has endured through good times and bad.     

The Role of Maternal Behavior in the Relation between Shyness and Social Reticence in Early Childhood and Social Withdrawal in Middle Childhood

The moderating effect of maternal behavior in the relations between social reticence and shyness in preschool and subsequent social withdrawal was investigated. Eighty children (47 females) were judged for degree of social reticence during play with unfamiliar peers at the age of four and mothers completed the Colorado child temperament inventory (CCTI). At the age of seven, the children were coded for degree of social withdrawal during peer play and mothers and children were observed during structured and unstructured activities. Two significant interaction effects indicated that maternal report of shyness was a positive predictor of age‐seven social withdrawal when mothers lacked positivity; whereas observed social reticence was associated with higher degrees of social withdrawal when mothers were highly negative. Maternal positivity and negativity differentially influenced the development of social withdrawal in childhood, such that maternal negativity is associated with poor social functioning in children who have an established history of social withdrawal; whereas maternal positivity is associated with better social outcome for preschoolers who are viewed as temperamentally shy.