The internal logic and contradictions of migration control: An excursion into theory and practice in relation to east‐west migration

The migration problem has acquired a new dimension with the breakdown of State‐Communism which has induced new and variable waves of migration out of Eastern Europe. The response of the West to these waves, as well as to the ever‐increasing likelihood of emigration from countries of the Third World has been one of mounting regulation. The present article critically juxtaposes the underlying, albeit short‐term, logic of regulation with that of East‐West migration — itself a highly variated and differentiated process — in an attempt to demarcate a more comprehensive approach to the East‐West migration subject.     

A Simulation Study of the Influence of Study Design on the Estimation of Benchmark Doses for Developmental Toxicity1

The benchmark dose (BMD)⁴ approach is emerging as replacement to determination of the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) in noncancer risk assessment. This possibility raises the issue as to whether current study designs for endpoints such as developmental toxicity, optimized for detecting pair wise comparisons, could be improved for the purpose of calculating BMDs. In this paper, we examine various aspects of study design (number of dose groups, dose spacing, dose placement, and sample size per dose group) on BMDs for two endpoints of developmental toxicity (the incidence of abnormalities and of reduced fetal weight). Design performance was judged by the mean-squared error (reflective of the variance and bias) of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) from the log-logistic model of the 5% added risk level (the likely target risk for a benchmark calculation), as well as by the length of its 95% confidence interval (the lower value of which is the BMD). We found that of the designs evaluated, the best results were obtained when two dose levels had response rates above the background level, one of which was near the ED₀₅, were present. This situation is more likely to occur with more, rather than fewer dose levels per experiment. In this instance, there was virtually no advantage in increasing the sample size from 10 to 20 litters per dose group. If neither of the two dose groups with response rates above the background level was near the ED₀₅, satisfactory results were also obtained, but the BMDs tended to be more conservative (i.e., lower). If only one dose level with a response rate above the background level was present, and it was near the ED₀₅, reasonable results for the MLE and BMD were obtained, but here we observed benefits of larger dose group sizes. The poorest results were obtained when only a single group with an elevated response rate was present, and the response rate was much greater than the ED₀₅. The results indicate that while the benchmark dose approach is readily applicable to the standard study designs and generally observed dose-responses in developmental assays, some minor design modifications would increase the accuracy and precision of the BMD.     

The Development of migration policies and their contradictions

The present article looks at the contradictions of migration policies that reveal how the latter are ultimately directed by labour market demands. Contradictions in migration regulation policy arise not only across different time periods but spatially as well; hence, the different attitudes of European governments towards the Eastern European countries and Third World countries; also in terms of how similar phenomena are variably interpreted: the case of brain drain illustrates this very well.     

Träume im Coaching Ein Beispiel und ein Leitfaden für kollegiale Traumdialoge

Dreams in Coaching. A case study and a guide for dialogues on dreamsAn approach to dreams is offered, that invites consultant into working with dreams even if they are not trained as psychologists. Through an intuitive and creative dialogue with images the consultant as well as the client come into a dialogue with their unconscious perceptions of the development. While discussing the process of a specific case it will be shown how working with dreams helps to understand, to shape, and to control. Hereby it will be illustrated how the consultant can do it and how things relate to each other. Finally an guide for dialogues on dreams describes useful attitudes, questions and experiments in working with dreams.     

Charting small sample characteristics of asymptotic confidence intervals for the binomial parameterp

Small sample properties of seven confidence intervals for the binomial parameterp (based on various normal approximations) and of the Clopper-Pearson interval are compared. Coverage probabilities and expected lower and upper limits of the intervals are graphically displayed as functions of the binomial parameterp for various sample sizes.     

The Multiple Outlier Problem in Time Series Analysis

In this paper we consider the multiple outlier problem in time series analysis. The underlying undisturbed time series is assumed to be an autoregressive process. The location of the suspicious values is supposed to be known. We introduce conditional least squares estimators for the parameters. The estimates are shown to be strongly consistent. Using similar arguments as in the theory of linear models, we get a test statistic for the general linear hypothesis. Its asymptotic distribution is derived.     

Effects of aging on Type II muscle fibers: a systematic review of the literature

The authors conducted a systematic review of the literature for scientific articles in selected databases to determine the effects of aging on Type II muscle fibers in human skeletal muscles. They found that aging of Type II muscle fibers is primarily associated with a loss of fibers and a decrease in fiber size. Morphological changes with increasing age particularly included Type II fiber grouping. There is conflicting evidence regarding the change of proportion of Type II fibers. Type II muscle fibers seem to play an important role in the aging process of human skeletal muscles. According to this literature review, loss of fibers, decrease in size, and fiber-type grouping represent major quantitative changes. Because the process of aging involves various complex phenomena such as fiber-type coexpression, however, it seems difficult to assign those changes solely to a specific fiber type.     

Gradient boosting for distributional regression: faster tuning and improved variable selection via noncyclical updates

We present a new algorithm for boosting generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) that allows to incorporate stability selection, an increasingly popular way to obtain stable sets of covariates while controlling the per-family error rate. The model is fitted repeatedly to subsampled data, and variables with high selection frequencies are extracted. To apply stability selection to boosted GAMLSS, we develop a new “noncyclical” fitting algorithm that incorporates an additional selection step of the best-fitting distribution parameter in each iteration. This new algorithm has the additional advantage that optimizing the tuning parameters of boosting is reduced from a multi-dimensional to a one-dimensional problem with vastly decreased complexity. The performance of the novel algorithm is evaluated in an extensive simulation study. We apply this new algorithm to a study to estimate abundance of common eider in Massachusetts, USA, featuring excess zeros, overdispersion, nonlinearity and spatiotemporal structures. Eider abundance is estimated via boosted GAMLSS, allowing both mean and overdispersion to be regressed on covariates. Stability selection is used to obtain a sparse set of stable predictors.     

Sequential monitoring of high-dimensional time series

In the paper we derive new types of multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts which are based on the Euclidean distance and on the distance defined by using the inverse of the diagonal matrix consisting of the variances. The design of the proposed control schemes does not involve the computation of the inverse covariance matrix and, thus, it can be used in the high-dimensional setting. The distributional properties of the control statistics are obtained and are used in the determination of the new control procedures. Within an extensive simulation study, the new approaches are compared with the multivariate EWMA control charts which are based on the Mahalanobis distance.