中国城市化与社会结构变迁

文章从社会学角度探讨了过去30年以来中国的城市化及其引发的社会结构变迁。文章指出，在过去30年中国的城市化经历了飞速的发展，进入了快速城市化阶段，离基本城市化阶段越来越近，但由于中国独特的城乡制度以及行政管理体制，中国城市化呈现两种模式——主动城市化模式和被动城市化模式，并呈现多种城市化主体，而政府和企业则是中国城市化的主导性主体。这背后最主要的动力机制还是制度和利益，彰显出中国社会结构变迁趋势：在利益机制驱使下，中国社会渐渐地形成了城乡差别不断扩大、城市内部分化明显的利益分配格局；由于缺乏公开、公正、民主的配置机制，各个城市化主体之间的博弈大多屈从于弱肉强食的“丛林法则”，从而导致各种暴力冲突、相互仇视的问题，这在一定程度上破坏了城市社会运行秩序特别是支撑这些秩序的信任机制，显现出相当严重的合法性危机，对未来中国的城市化提出了严峻的挑战。为此，文章提出了中国未来城市化的几种可能的路径。     

Bootstrap Estimation of Benchmark Doses and Confidence Limits with Clustered Quantal Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) is an exposure level that would induce a small risk increase (BMR level) above the background. The BMD approach to deriving a reference dose for risk assessment of noncancer effects is advantageous in that the estimate of BMD is not restricted to experimental doses and utilizes most available dose-response information. To quantify statistical uncertainty of a BMD estimate, we often calculate and report its lower confidence limit (i.e., BMDL), and may even consider it as a more conservative alternative to BMD itself. Computation of BMDL may involve normal confidence limits to BMD in conjunction with the delta method. Therefore, factors, such as small sample size and nonlinearity in model parameters, can affect the performance of the delta method BMDL, and alternative methods are useful. In this article, we propose a bootstrap method to estimate BMDL utilizing a scheme that consists of a resampling of residuals after model fitting and a one-step formula for parameter estimation. We illustrate the method with clustered binary data from developmental toxicity experiments. Our analysis shows that with moderately elevated dose-response data, the distribution of BMD estimator tends to be left-skewed and bootstrap BMDL s are smaller than the delta method BMDL s on average, hence quantifying risk more conservatively. Statistically, the bootstrap BMDL quantifies the uncertainty of the true BMD more honestly than the delta method BMDL as its coverage probability is closer to the nominal level than that of delta method BMDL. We find that BMD and BMDL estimates are generally insensitive to model choices provided that the models fit the data comparably well near the region of BMD. Our analysis also suggests that, in the presence of a significant and moderately strong dose-response relationship, the developmental toxicity experiments under the standard protocol support dose-response assessment at 5% BMR for BMD and 95% confidence level for BMDL.     

矩阵方程XA＝B的亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解

给出了四元数体Ｑ上ｎ×ｎ分块矩阵为亚（半）正定自共轭矩阵的一个充要条件，进而给出了Ｑ上矩阵方程ＸＡｎｍ＝Ｂｎｍ有亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解的充要条件及解集合的显式表示，从而推广改进了数城上线性方程组的反问题及矩阵反问题的相应结果．     

我国法定兽用中药的元素分析(一报续)

在被测的368味中药中,各元素的最大值分别是胆矾(Cu)、鹤虱(Fe)、荷叶(Zn)、蜈蚣(Ca)、枳实(Mg)、龟板(P)、阿胶(K)、大青盐(Na)、一枝黄花(Li)、茵陈(Se),最小值分别是菟丝子(Cu)、红豆蔻(Fe)、玄明粉(Mn)、蟾酥(Zn)、玄参(Ca)、五加皮(Mg)、明矾等(P)、磁石、苏木(K)、枇杷叶、当归(Na)、赭石等(Li)、白附子等(Se)。2.2 中药各元素平均含量占11种被测元素均值总和的百分率分别是P36.56、K29.51、Ca20.18、Na8.37、Fe2.61、Zn1.35、Mg0.48、Cu0.38、Mn0.37、Li0.17、Se0.00038。     

A Process for Incorporating Comparative Risk into Environmental Policymaking in Louisiana

The goal of Louisiana's 1990–1991 comparative risk project, also called the Louisiana Environmental Action Plan (LEAP), was to incorporate risk assessment into state environmental planning and policymaking. Scientists, government officials, and citizens were brought together to estimate the relative risk to human health, natural resources, and quality of life posed by 33 selected environmental issues. The issues were then ranked according to their relative estimated risks. It was hoped that this ranking of "comparative risks" would enable state policymakers to target the most important environmental problems and allocate scarce public resources more rationally and efficiently. As a result of the project, the governor issued an Executive Order forming a permanent Public Advisory Committee to continue this type of comparative risk assessment in Louisiana.     

建设项目的专业技术 服务风险管理浅析

本文分析了建设项目中专业技术服务的潜在风险，探讨了风险管理的内容、途径和方法，简述了专业责任保险的特点和原则，指出了在我国开展专业责任保险的紧迫性。     

板模型具部分反射边界条件的迁移算子的渐近点谱及其聚点

研究非均匀介质、各向异性和连续能量的板模型迁移算子A在部分反射边界条件下的渐近点谱及其聚点.在F (1≤P< ∞)空间获得了算子A的渐近点谱以及谱聚点的分布等新的结果.     

贝都因人:阿拉伯世界的精神贵族

“贝都因”的阿拉伯文意思是“荒漠的游牧人”,中文名系由英语“Bedouin”音译而来,另有“贝都英”、“贝杜因”、“贝督因”等译法。贝都因人主要指在阿拉伯半岛、叙利亚、伊拉克以及北非的沙漠、荒原、丘陵和农业边缘地区从事游牧和半游牧的阿拉伯人。他们身材细颀,长有突出的鹰钩鼻,从生理特征上讲,属于欧罗巴人种地中海类型。千百年来,用驼毛绳缚着头帕、身着宽舒长衫、腰插阿拉伯弯刀的贝都因人和椰枣树、单峰驼一起,构成了阿拉伯半岛荒漠地区亘古不变的风景。贝都因人,这些闪族的游牧人,早在金字塔建成以前就在荒漠里放牧着他们的畜…     

国有无形资产流失问题探讨

文章根据经济全球化和知识化的客观要求,在分析国有无形资产流失的特征、途径的基础上,从强化观念、建立机构、完善制度、制定战略、营造环境等方面提出了防止国有无形资产流失的一系列对策。     

从梁启超文化思想变迁看中国文化前景

梁启超是近代中国集中国现代化变革的先驱者和文化保守主义运动肇基人于一身的复杂人物，与多变的时代一样，其文化思想也几经变迁，他处心积虑几十年探索中西文化问题、传统与现代化问题，给后人提供了极富价值的理论思考。中国文化的前景必然是选择现代化，一方面它将最大限度地保持自己的民族特色，另一方面最大限度且毫无条件地吸收一切先进的东西，实现创造性的综合与再铸。