Adjustment of provisional mortality series: the dynamic linear model with structured measurement errors

The authors "consider the problem of adjusting provisional time series using a bivariate structural model with correlated measurement errors. Maximum likelihood estimators and a minimum mean squared error adjustment procedure are derived for a provisional and final series containing common trend and seasonal components. The model also includes measurement errors common to both series and errors that are specific to the provisional series. [The authors] illustrate the technique by using provisional data to forecast ischemic heart disease mortality."     

Family ties and economic stability concerns of migrant labour families in Jordan

74 labor migrant families from various socioeconomic classes in Amman, Jordan were interviewed to examine changes in relationships among family members, extended family, and neighbors and their concerns about economic stability in the host country, Jordan, and the world market. Another purpose was to determine how current migration policies of the Arab oil-producing countries which prohibit labor migrants from bringing their families to the host country affect labor migration among families. The families consisted of either those who did or did not accompany the labor migrant. Overall labor migration affected unaccompanied families more than accompanied families, e.g., only 19% of the unaccompanied families reported increased family unity compared with 56% of accompanied families. Problems within unaccompanied families increased in 43% of the cases but in only 6% of the accompanied families. Many of these problems resulted in children dropping out of school which reflected the control fathers had within the family, separation, or divorce. Yet labor migration reduced family ties with extended family members and neighbors almost equally for both groups. Accompanied families were not as concerned about economic stability in Jordan as unaccompanied families (38% vs. 50%). Perhaps these families tended not to invest remittances received from the labor migrants working in Arab oil-producing countries in Jordan. Both groups were quite concerned about the economic stability in the host countries (66% and 72%, respectively) and the world market (59% and 62%, respectively), however. Since family unity suffers when families do not accompany labor migrants, it is suggested that oil-producing nations that depend on foreign labor should guarantee family unity as a human right.     

The challenge of world health

2 development specialists have expounded on the demands world health has placed on public health. Striking declines in infant and child mortality occurred with the advent of biomedical and technical interventions in developing countries after World War II. At the same time, these interventions promoted longer lives by curing and/or treating chronic diseases in developed countries. In the 1970s, however, it was apparent that the hospital based, curative approach could not meet health needs and was very costly. In developed countries, biomedical and social sciences showed that chronic diseases did not occur due to modernization but from unhealthy behaviors, diet, and lifestyle. In fact, in 1975, the US Centers for Disease Control announced that unhealthy lifestyles contributed to 50% of all deaths while the medical system was responsible for only 11%. The US and other developed countries then began to promote healthy lifestyles, and in the 1980s, considerable improvements in health occurred, especially among adults. Developing countries which depended on the Western medical model did not experience health gains in the 1970s. Yet developing countries where health systems concentrated on carrying essential services to all people and promoted basic hygiene and sound dietary practices continued to achieve considerable health gains. In 1978, WHO an UNICEF hosted the International Conference on Primary Health Care in Alma Ata, the Soviet Union to hold these developing countries with community based health systems as models of primary health care (PHC). The 1980s witnessed the spread of PHC especially in the form of child survival which focused on oral rehydration therapy and breast feeding. The biomedical and social sciences are needed to move this health policy and program strategy forward. Governments must see to policies that promote healthy people. Political will is needed to make human welfare a high priority.     

Application of Stein-type estimation in combining regression estimates from replicated experiments

This paper considers the application of Stein-type estimation procedure for the coefficients in a linear regression model when data are available from replicated experiment. Two families of estimators characterized by a single scalar are proposed and their large sample asymptotic properties are derived. These are utilized for comparing the performances of the two estimators along with the conventional estimator and conditions for the superiority of one estimator over the other are deduced.     

Age at marriage,sex-ratios,and ethnic heterogamy

"This paper focuses on the effects of age at marriage and the sex-ratio on patterns of ethnic homogamy among Israeli women. We hypothesize that later marriages are more likely than early marriages to be heterogamous as the 'marriage market' shifts from school to the work-place. By the same token, when facing severe marriage squeezes women will be forced to out-marry. Employing data from the 1983 census, we model mate selection of women from Afro-Asian and Euro-American origin in various birth-cohorts. The results do not fully support our hypotheses: we find that in and of itself, age at marriage does not enhance ethnic heterogamy."     

DO SURVEYS OVERSTATE PUBLIC CONCERNS?

Because the item, "How concerned are you about...?" asks respondentsto indicate their level of concern about an issue, some respondentsmay sense it assumes they are concerned or should be concernedabout the issue. Using a filter question to first determineif people are concerned about the issue before asking for theirdegree of concern may help solve this problem. To test thishypothesis, a split-ballot experiment was embedded in a nationalrandom digit dialing telephone survey on food-related issues.For the four items included in the experiment, the group receivingthe filter versions of the questions gave roughly double thepercentages of "not concerned" responses as the group receivingstandard items, and the filter group also gave fewer responsesat the upper end of the response scale.     

When push comes to shove: implementing VBAC practice guidelines

The dramatic increase in U.S. cesarean sections over the past two decades has been significantly driven by repeat C-sections. In response to this trend, clinical guidelines recommending vaginal birth after cesarean-section (VBAC) have been promulgated by national organizations. Adherence to these guidelines would reduce the number of repeat C-sections, lower the overall C-section rate, and improve both the quality and the cost of health care. While these guidelines have received professional endorsement, their implementation has been clouded by issues of patient acceptance and provider payment. To examine implementation of these guidelines by health care organizations, the authors surveyed 156 members of the American College of Physician Executives to determine their policies, practices, and attitudes toward VBAC guidelines. Those surveyed generally were medical directors in HMOs, hospitals, and other practice settings. The findings indicate that the health care organizations represented by these physician executives have not consistently implemented VBAC guideline and that they are reluctant to hold physicians, their patients, or hospitals accountable for the financial, utilization, and quality impact of the elective decision ot to pursue appropriate VBACs. We conclude that, even when widely accepted, clinical practice guidelines may be ineffective in reducing the costs or improving the quality of medical care.