An Empirical Process View of Inverse Regression

A common approach taken in high‐dimensional regression analysis is sliced inverse regression, which separates the range of the response variable into non‐overlapping regions, called ‘slices’. Asymptotic results are usually shown assuming that the slices are fixed, while in practice, estimators are computed with random slices containing the same number of observations. Based on empirical process theory, we present a unified theoretical framework to study these techniques, and revisit popular inverse regression estimators. Furthermore, we introduce a bootstrap methodology that reproduces the laws of Cramér–von Mises test statistics of interest to model dimension, effects of specified covariates and whether or not a sliced inverse regression estimator is appropriate. Finally, we investigate the accuracy of different bootstrap procedures by means of simulations.     

Social Policymaking and Its Institutional Basis: Transition of The Chinese Social Security System

This article discusses Chinese social policy development in response to the growth of the market economy. It provides a general overview of the system's evolution in three stages: (1) the pre‐reform period when a system of enterprise welfare was in operation; (2) a period of system transition; (3) the stage when state welfare began to take shape. These developmental trends are interpreted on the basis of three types of institutional relations: the State‐enterprise relation, the enterprise‐ (or employer‐) employee relation, and the individual/worker‐State relation. Moreover, the discussion deals with policy perceptions at each stage of the developmental process. Based on these analyses, it illustrates the transformation of the Chinese social security system in a broad socioeconomic and political context, where China struggled to establish a modern, market‐based enterprise system. The paper thus expounds issues of socialism, market forces and the power of organized labour.     

Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.     

Debt management in a small open economy: A theoretical and an empirical study for Belgium

This article analyzes the effects of debt management and its consequence for the control of base money in a small open economy (Belgium). The study compares the effects obtained from a small theoretical model with the results of a larger empirical model.The theoretical model focuses on the financing of government by money operation, on the bond rate, and on the international reserve of the Central Bank.The empirical model is a medium-term one, including the demand and the supply sectors of the economy and permitting simultaneous analysis of real and financial variables.The effects of an endogeneous or exogenous debt management have been studied by numerical simulation of modification in the public expenditure, the world trade, and the discount rate.     

Factors influencing contraception continuation rates: The oral and the intrauterine methods

The technique of multi-sort analysis was used to compare the relative duration of use of oral and intrauterine contraception among low socio-economic groups in Baltimore City. The clinical records of over 12,000 women who had received contraception through the Baltimore public services were analyzed. The type of method a woman used was found to be the most important factor affecting her probability of continuing contraception. Her age, race, and how long she had been using the method also influenced this probability. The strictness of the criteria used for the definition of continuation rates and the fact that experience was incomplete for many intrauterine contraceptors probably in part explain the somewhat low continuation rates obtained for both methods. It is suggested that the intrinsic characteristics of each method may lead to a clinical impression favoring the oral even when statistical evidence, as presented here, favors the intrauterine method.     

Identity and Ideas: A Roundtable on Identity Politics

This roundtable discussion examines the issue of identity politics and how identity influences and is influenced by gay/queer politics and theory. The participants discuss how identity politics affects political organizing and activism, how different identity communities can build coalitions, how the language related to identity is evolving, and how sexual attractions and practices interact with identity. The discussants look at how the influx into the gay and lesbian movement of new groups that challenge traditional identity boundaries—e.g., bisexuals and transgendered people—is affecting the movement. Finally, the discussants examine how “idea-based” politics may supplant identity-based politics as a new inclusive paradigm.